Analyzing the global crisis
ITC - International Trade Forum Chief Economist Willem von der Geest:
ITC's chief economist assesses the impact of the global financial
crisis on developing countries, and recommends responses for
international and domestic policy.
This crisis is not like a tsunami, a giant wave sweeping everything
in its path, but rather like a series of smaller waves with their impact
accumulating over longer periods.
|
Willem von
der Geest |
I would expect to see three impact waves for developing countries. In
the short run, the first wave has been the shelving or outright
cancellation of planned Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to developing
countries. Second has been a severe import contraction of the major
Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries,
with the mirror effect of declining exports of developing country
suppliers and export prices dropping sharply. Third will be the laying
off of people, translating to a sharp drop in incomes and remittances.
Some developing countries will be impacted much more severely than
others, but nobody will remain unaffected.
Impact analysis
We know little about how these impacts will correlate and hardly
anything about their co-variances. Yet this will determine the depth and
duration of the crisis for individual countries, producers and
exporters. The trade and investment impact will accumulate, with reduced
remittances and fewer workers migrating, adding further to the decline
of national incomes. It is therefore possible that the crisis will
continue to be felt in developing countries, even if signs of recovery
become visible in OECD countries. At any rate, that is not expected for
2009. While there have been "green shoots" in the first weeks of July,
with a few international banks, notably Deutsche Bank, reporting
better-than-expected profits, the demand side remains bleak, with high
unemployment and extremely weak consumer confidence.
Developing countries are the collateral damage of this crisis. They
were largely absent in the "toxic" markets, except for a few Chinese and
Singaporean sovereign wealth investments in the banking and insurance
sectors. These have taken a severe hit, despite having focused on triple
AAA-rated brand names such as Bear Sterns, Fortis and Lehmann Brothers.
Under-regulated financial markets permitted over-exposure of financial
institutions, most notably the United States investment banks. Their
success in selling risky assets to other players, including pension
funds around the world, was largely based on exploiting asymmetric
information. Investors from all over the world were easily attracted,
expecting steady and predictable returns.
Investment
The Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF) has
been monitoring the movements of private capital flows to developing
countries, with disconcerting observations. According to the IIF, the
level of private capital likely to be invested in developing countries
in 2009 will be down by 82 percent, relative to 2007. It is not a
response to decreased profitability in the developing countries. I don't
agree with the institute when it writes that investors have turned more
risk-averse. It is primarily the credit crunch that finished lax finance
and easy borrowing. The net lending of commercial banks is expected to
be negative by $61 billion, withdrawing from emerging and developing
markets, whereas it was positive to the tune of $67 billion during 2008.
This is a watershed.
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD)
further estimates that FDI will be down by 10 percent in 2009. This is
in sharp contrast to their 2007 survey of transnational corporations,
with companies reporting an intension to increase their greenfield
investments, especially in emerging markets. Calling off portfolio
investment and venture capital projects is the first-wave effect,
followed by companies rescheduling their investment projects. This is
also happening in the services sectors, with banks and insurers going
slow on expansion. It is not only visible in the first tier of emerging
markets, such as China, India and Brazil, but also particularly strong
in the second tier such as Thailand, Kenya and the Philippines.
Trade
To gauge the impact of the crisis on developing countries' trade, one
has to examine high-frequency indicators, such as monthly trade and
investment data ITC reports monthly trade data for many countries, based
on a country's own reporting, double-checked against the mirror data
from major importers. Monthly data for the whole of 2008 are now
available for most of Latin America, the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russian
Federation, India and China) and the OECD. (ITC provides this free of
charge to developing country users at www.intracen.org). Major importing
countries and regions are reporting up to May-June 2009, including all
the member states of the European Union, other OECD countries such as
the United States, Japan, Australia and European Free Trade Association
(EFTA) members including Norway and Switzerland.
The different types of trade shocks developing countries are
experiencing may be distinguished as follows:
* Commodity price shocks, with prices falling sharply due to the
steep decline in demand from the OECD and BRIC economies; much of
sub-Saharan Africa, including Benin, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia, is
affected.
* Manufacturing demand shock, with orders drying up. Cambodian
garments in the United States market are an acute case, with imports in
February 2009 amounting to $99 million, whereas in the same month the
previous year, garment imports totalled $207 million; consolidated
figures for the first five months of 2009 indicate a 20 percent drop.
* Services-demand shocks, for example for tourism, are another
important sector, with Cambodia, Gabon, Kenya, Mauritius and Zambia
among the countries severely affected.
Countries that are better diversified both geographically and in
terms of the mix of product and services in their export basket are
better able to withstand the shocks, because the impact across sectors
is not uniform, nor of the same intensity. An important example is to
compare Cambodian with Bangladeshi garments; while the first targeted
upperend United States markets, the latter focused on rather basic
clothing in both the European Union and the United States. We now see
that Cambodia is more severely affected than Bangladesh. The
price-elasticity of demand for different types of garments in OECD
markets can differ significantly. It is still too early to draw general
implications, but it may be wise to try to develop different product
lines within the same industry for this very reason.
Remittances
There is little doubt remittances to developing countries will
decrease sharply in 2009. The importance of remittances for developing
countries has increased dramatically over the decade from 1997 to 2007.
For developing countries overall, the importance relative to Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) increased from 1.2 percent to 1.9 percent. Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) derive as much as six percent of their income
from remittances.
About 53 percent of all (recorded) migrants from developing countries
hold domicile in developed countries. But this 53 percent yields 84
percent of the remittance receipts for developing countries (63 percent
in LDCs). With OECD employment and incomes falling sharply, the pressure
on jobs will be enormous. Lower wages coupled with marginalization will
affect the social status of the migrant workers and significantly erode
their ability to support their families and next of kin, as well as to
save and invest for their future in their countries of origin.
The picture is indeed bleak so far. Kenya has reportedly experienced
a decline of its remittances by 12 percent during the second half of
2008 and in Cambodia remittances dropped from 4.2 percent of GDP to 3.4
percent, with further declines expected. For some LDCs, remittances
originate predominantly from one single emerging economy - for example,
Lesotho and South Africa (81 percent) or Nepal and India (79 percent).
Evidently, these countries face a high risk for their remittances.
Policy Responses
Two key variables in the official assistance scenario for developing
countries are the flow of overseas development assistance (ODA) and the
availability of International Monetary Fund (IMF) credits. The OECD's
development assistance committee observes that 2008 was actually a good
year for ODA. Net official ODA rose by 10 percent to $119.8 billion and
of this, net bilateral aid to sub-Saharan Africa amounted to $22.5
billion. ODA commitments have remained largely unchanged, but the actual
disbursement, already behind schedule in 2008, may slip even further.
With regard to the IMF credits for developing countries, the G-20
decision of April 2, 2009 enables additional resources for cash-strapped
governments. However, several months later, the picture on the ground is
not yet settled.
Since the beginning of April 2009, the IMF has made substantial fresh
loans to emerging economies in Latin America and Central and Eastern
Europe, to the tune of $59 billion and $45 billion respectively in 15
operations. Furthermore, the IMF approved the doubling of borrowing
limits for the poorest countries and also overhauled its conditionality,
making it more appropriate for the present crisis context. The "IMF has
approved various credits under different arrangements such as "Flexible
credit Line", "Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility Arrangement",
"Exogenous Shocks Facility" and "Stand-By Arrangement".
For instance, it has approved the $47 billion arrangement for Mexico
under its Flexible Credit Line, and a $ 209 million disbursement to
Kenya under its Exogenous Shocks facility. Nevertheless, since the G-20
decision of April, fresh lending to 18 African countries amounted to
$2.2 billion only in 18 operations. It still remains an open question
whether the new facilities will not be too little, too late for many
LDCs and low-income developing countries.
Source: ITC Sri Lanka Exporter
To be continued
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