2000-2010:
A decade of (climate)change
John Roach
A decade ago, global climate change was largely considered a problem
for the distant future. But it seems that future has come sooner than
predicted.
One of the most remarkable and alarming, environmental changes to
occur over the last decade is the melting of Antarctic ice sheets and
the recession of Arctic glaciers at speeds much faster than climate
change models had predicted, according to environment experts.
A bearded seal rests on shrinking sea ice near Svalbard Island
in the Arctic Ocean. Photograph by Paul Nicklen, NGS |
In addition, the Arctic ice cap reached an all-time low in the summer
of 2007. Some climate scientists now predict the region will be ice free
during the summer within the next decade.
Studies suggest an ice-free Arctic could result not only in a
stormier North Pole region, but could also affect weather patterns
throughout the entire Northern Hemisphere.
The loss of ice would also be a death knell for polar bears, which
rely on ice to hunt and raise their young. But it would also be a boon
for business, including shipping and resource extraction. Climate change
has made itself apparent in other powerful ways over the past decade.
In southeastern Australia, a ten-year drought now causes the Murray
River to trickle into the sand before it reaches the sea. For the last
several decades, ecologist John Harte, has watched global warming shift
vegetation in the Rocky Mountains from a palette of wildflowers to
sagebrush, the latter of which is hardier.
"As snowmelt trends toward coming earlier and earlier, it has big
effects on the competition among plants", University of California,
Berkeley, Harte said.
Waking up to climate change
Melting ice, droughts, earlier springs, as well as disappearing polar
bears and frog extinctions are among the signs that global warming is
already having an effect on the planet, experts say.
In recent years, these signs have begun to resonate with people
around the world, the Managing Director of the Pew Environment Group, a
Washington, D.C.-based international environmental nonprofit Joshua
Reichert said. "They've accepted the fact that (climate change) is
caused by human activity, and that unless we do something to curtail
(greenhouse gas) emissions, the consequences will be severe for both
humanity as well as nature", he said.
A global push away from greenhouse gas-emitting fossil fuels such as
oil and coal has spurred increased research and investment in renewable
energy sources ranging from wind turbines to dog poop. According to a
2009 United Nations Environment Programme report, $155 billion was
invested globally in renewable energy, including hydropower and biofuels,
in 2008, a fourfold increase since 2004.
Where will they go now? |
Nature's wealth
In 1997, a study published in the journal Nature tallied the value of
17 services provided by the environment, including water purification
through wetlands, pollination, and recreation. The total was estimated
at US $33 trillion.
The findings were largely ignored by policy makers, according to
Stuart Pimm, a conservation biologist at Duke University in Durham,
North Carolina, who wrote an accompanying perspective piece on the
study.
"Here we are just over a decade later and people are talking about
tens of billions of dollars in financing to help developing countries do
things like reduce carbon emissions from deforestation", he said.
"To me, that's the story of the decade", a former member of the
National Geographic Committee for Research and Exploration Pim added.
But in the developed world, some have heeded the message: Forest
conservation has increased over the past decade, noted the Pew
Environment Group's Reichert. Canada, for example, protected more than
125 million acres (50.6 million hectares), an area bigger than the state
of California.
In the US, a plan announced in the final days of the Clinton
Administration that pledged to protect 58.5 million acres (23.7 million
hectares) of roadless areas has survived numerous challenges since. In
addition, more than 2 million acres (800,000 hectares) of new wilderness
areas in the US have been designated in recent years, Reichert added.
Ocean protections
The first decade of the new millennium also saw strides in ocean
conservation, Reichert noted. Two of the largest marine reserves in the
world were created over the past five years: The Papahanaumokuakea
National Marine Monument in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and
Marianas Trench Marine National Monument in the Pacific Ocean. Together
the two reserves cover roughly 235,000 square miles (600,000 square
kilometers).
The designation of new protected areas may suggest that scientific
research is reaching environmental policy makers, Reichert said. A 2001
study found that marine reserves boost nearby fishing grounds and
associated fishing economies by about $400 billion annually. A 2006
study also warned that seafood could run out by 2048.
What does the future hold?
The Arctic polar ice melting |
Despite these gains, conservationists still have much work to do:
Forests, grasslands, and wetlands continued to be cleared and drained,
according to Bill Eichbaum, a vice president at WWF-US.
The limits of fresh water for consumption, irrigation, and
manufacturing also bored into the public consciousness this decade,
Eichbaum noted. "The demands for water are putting many of our water
systems at stress, and that going forward is going to be a critical
issue not only for human well-being but also environmental
sustainability", he said.
Director of the Global Water Policy Project based in Los Lunas, New
Mexico Sandra Postel, and a National Geographic Society Freshwater
Fellow, predicts more drought. "I think (the Murray River situation is)
a harbinger of what's to come, perhaps even to our own southwestern
United States, where again we are locked in a drought", she said. Many
rivers around the world fail to reach the sea during parts of each year
due to drought, Postel said. And groundwater used for crop irrigation is
being depleted in India, China, the US, and Pakistan, the world's top
four irrigators, she added.
"What this means is that there is sort of a bubble in the food
economy that is being propped up to some degree by unsustainable use of
water and, like any bubble, it is going to pop at some point", she said.
Freshwater species are in decline too. In North America, Postel
noted, 40 percent of freshwater fish species face some risk of
extinction.
China's glimmer of hope
In China, conservation efforts have already failed to protect the
Yangtze River dolphin, the first large aquatic mammal to go extinct
since the Caribbean monk seal in the 1950s.
Also this decade, China became the world's largest economy and thus
has a major stake in the environmental destiny of the planet, he said.
"If there is a glimmer of hope, Cummings added, there is a sense that
an environmental consciousness is awakening in China, and action is
being taken there".
National
Geographic News |