Captivating contrast in stimulus spending in China and USA
China and USA provide contrasting stimulus packages successfully
unravelling with flavours of their own. These spending ploys seemingly
taken from the Keynesian playbook have given more than a bang for their
bucks. A recent buying spree in USA resulted in 470,000 cars being sold
as detailed below. China's massive infrastructure spending was equally
spectacular, the planned 50 billion dollar Beijing-Shanghai high-speed
train project, for example, was a just a spect of Chinese ingenuity.
In China the steady return for their infrastructure growth has
exceeded all expectations. The major multi-purpose projects included
among many others a gas pipeline from the northwestern Ningxia Hui
Autonomous Region to the southern economic hubs of Guangzhou and Hong
Kong, at an investment of 93 billion Yuan, the building of the Guangdong
Yangjiang nuclear power plant. The list is several pages long.
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China has achieved rapid development.
AFP |
The estmated stimulus package worth 4 trillion Yuan or 570 billion
U.S. dollars, about 13 percent of its GDP became a reality as the
recession began to assert itself. Programs announced in 10 major areas,
included affordable housing, rural infrastructure, water, electricity,
transport, the environment, technological innovation and rebuilding
after disasters like May 12 earthquake.
Most noteworthy is the absence of a disconnect between its financial
hierarchy and ordinary people. China hasn't allowed its banking sector
to become so powerful, so influential, and so big that it can call the
shots or hijack the bailout. Chinese banks are lending to the people and
their businesses in record numbers.
Liquidity bubble watched
Two major constrains in stimulus "bubble" are massive liquidity
leading to prices spiralling up and the stocks getting over valued. New
loans in China rose unexpectedly during August to 410.4 billion Yuan.
China's total money supply called M2 rose by 28.5 percent in August
compared with the previous rise by 28.4 percent. Liquidity is being
watched to prevent prices rising.
China's stocks index also rose that might induce foreign demand on
the Chinese stocks, as the outlook of several sectors started to
improve.
Stock value had shown a rising trend so far. It was the over-valued
stock market and banking impropriety that caused the financial meltdown
in the US last year.
Jobs secured
China's Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, indicated recently that the
Government was able to keep the job market steady with employment
opportunities keeping to near optimum level, thereby helping to douse
latent social instability. China used exports rebates in boosting
domestic demand and offsetting slowing exports.
Export rebates on more than 3,700 items- mainly labour-incentive,
mechanical and electrical products and other items vulnerable to
weakening overseas demand was also raised.
The most irrefutably imprint of China's rise to the top of the
international pyramid is the ability amass foreign reserves.
It has accumulated so much in the way of dollar reserves that it
would be very difficult for speculators to do the same thing to the
Chinese stock market that the powerful stock holders did in the States.
China can handle a gradual stock market decline due to any natural
market forces unlike the catastrophic meltdown of the Wall Street last
year.
China's economy today provided a framework that effectively
encourages entrepreneurs. Some boldly predicted that China seemed bent
on creating the world's dominant capitalist economy.
It would not be runaway mega enterprises built on speculation and
unmitigated profiteering. The Chinese experience would be the subject of
study for years to come.
US Government intervention
The US stimulus package estimated in trillions of dollars executed
(exact amount still being tallied) was unprecedented due to its size and
shape. Governmental intervention in the financial sector became
inconceivably colossal-another first for US. Job creation so far is
nearing 200,000 as close to $ 300 billion had been pumped into the
economy. It will treble during the next six months as cities and States
get the full share of their stimulus money from the federal government.
The economy had to face a reversal of "consumer psyche" caused by the
collapse of financial system and a steep drop in housing values. All
told, the Central Bank (Federal Reserve) went into top gear pumping as
much as an extra $1.15 trillion into the economy via bond purchases,
Treasury Bills and purchases of mortgage-backed securities guaranteed by
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest housing lenders.
The drop in the net worth of an American Household was
stupendous-between 2003 and 2007 - prime years of the US housing boom -
the average household had expanded to about $540,000, from about
$400,000, according to an analysis of US federal data. It reversed and
by the first three months of this year, household net worth had dropped
to $421,000. When you consider that a home owner can borrow up to 90
percent of its total value. That was a major calamity to many.
Cars for clunkers
So the "cars for clunkers" introduced in August was a god-send to
businesses. An induced buying spree which gave $3,500 to $4,500 to each
car buyer exchanging a second-hand car for a fuel efficient new car
caused people to open their purses and go for a new car.
All cars surrendered had to be newer than 1984 models and with lower
gas consumption. All new cars had to be over 20 miles per gallon in gas
consumption.
The Obama administration ended the program after expending $ 3
billion the Congress voted for it. On an average, a consumer parted with
$15,000 to 20,000 for a new car but got a fat $3,500 to $ 4,000
reduction in price. The car dealers were reimbursed for the reduction in
price for each of the cars sold.
The ruse worked as the price cut attracted nearly 500,000 buyers
spending over $ 8 billion of their money. That was nearly thrice the
stimulus spent by the Government.
Fueled by the exuberant car buying, things changed. The downturn is
still far from being over as incomes did not rise and the rosy picture
of a booming economy did not come overnight.
But the downgraded expectations that clouded the usual rosy
assumptions about the future and eroding the impulse to buy changed
causing consumer demand to rise gradually.
Rudimentary capitalism shows signs of growth in China, while USA now
has the largest public sector in its history. We will hear about them
for years.
This would become happy hunting grounds for PhD seekers, you can bet
on it. The contrast is the most spectacular happening in this decade. |