'Climate-Smart' world within reach -WB
SAsian countries face climate-related development
challenges :
If developed countries act now, a 'climate-smart' world is feasible,
and the costs for getting there will be high but still manageable, says
a new World Bank report. High-income countries also need to act quickly
to reduce their carbon footprints and boost development of alternative
energy sources to help tackle the problem of climate change.
World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change,
released in advance of the December meetings on climate change in
Copenhagen, says that advanced countries, which produced most of the
greenhouse gas emissions of the past, must act to shape our climate
future.
Developing countries can shift to lower-carbon paths while promoting
development and reducing poverty, but this depends on financial and
technical assistance from high-income countries. A key way to do this is
by ramping up funding for mitigation in developing countries, where most
future growth in emissions will occur.
The countries of the world must act now, act together and act
differently on climate change, said World Bank President Robert B.
Zoellick. "Developing countries are disproportionately affected by
climate change, a crisis that is not of their making and for which they
are the least prepared. For that reason, an equitable deal in Copenhagen
is vitally important.
Countries need to act now because today's decisions determine the
climate of tomorrow and the choices that shape the future. Countries
need to act together because no nation can take on the interconnected
challenges posed by climate change, and global cooperation is needed to
improve energy efficiencies and develop new technologies. Countries need
to act differently, because we cannot plan for the future based on the
climate of the past.
Policymakers
Developing countries will bear most of the costs of the damage from
climate change. Many people in developing countries live in physically
exposed locations and economically precarious conditions, and their
financial and institutional capacity to adapt is limited, says the
report. Already, policymakers in some developing countries note that an
increasing amount of their development budget is being diverted to cope
with weather-related emergencies.
Geography with high levels of poverty and population density make
countries in the South Asia region particularly vulnerable to climate
change. The report says that the global warming of two degrees Celsius
above pre-industrial temperatures, the minimum the world is likely to
experience, could result in permanent reductions in GDP of four to five
percent for South Asia.
The region's water resources are likely to be affected by climate
change, through its effect on the monsoon, which provides 70 percent of
annual precipitation in a four-month period, and on the melting of
Himalayan glaciers, particularly in the western end of the range.
Rising sea levels are also of important concern in South Asia, which
has long and densely populated coastlines, agricultural plains
threatened by saltwater intrusion, and many low-lying islands. In more
severe climate-change scenarios, rising seas would submerge much of the
Maldives and inundate 18 percent of Bangladesh's land.
Climate and agriculture
Agricultural productivity is one of many factors driving the greater
vulnerability of developing countries. Extrapolating from past year- to-
year variations in climate and agricultural outcomes, yields of major
crops in India are projected to decline by 4.5 to 9 percent within the
next three decades, even allowing for short-term adaptations.
The report says the implications of such climate change for poverty,
and GDP, could be enormous given projected population growth and high
dependence of livelihoods on rain-fed agriculture in the South Asian
region.
At the same time, the report notes that 1.6 billion people in the
developing world lack access to electricity. In India alone, more than
400 million people do not have electricity. Those developing countries,
whose average per capita emissions are a fraction of those of
high-income countries' need massive expansions in energy, transport,
urban systems, and agricultural production. Increasing access to energy
and other services using high-carbon technologies will produce more
greenhouse gases, hence more climate change.
India faces tremendous challenges in substantially altering its
emissions path given its relatively efficient economy and limited
endowment of clean energy resources and for carbon storage sites, the
report says. India relies heavily on coal, which accounts for 53 percent
of its commercial energy demand. Large potential exists, however, for
improving energy efficiency and reducing transmission and distribution
losses.
Energy consumption
The report finds, however, that existing low-carbon technologies and
best practices could reduce energy consumption significantly, saving
money. For example, the report notes that it is possible to cut energy
consumption in industry and the power sector by 20 -30 percent, helping
reduce carbon footprints without sacrificing growth.
In addition, many changes required to reduce emissions of greenhouse
gases also deliver significant benefits in environmental sustainability,
public health, energy security, and financial savings. Avoided
deforestation, for instance, preserves watersheds and protects
biodiversity, while forests can effectively serve as a carbon sink.
With costs of renewable energy declining over the past two decades,
wind, geothermal, and hydro power are already or nearly cost-competitive
with fossil fuels, the report says. Thanks to innovation and technology
diffusion, wind is now powering the first stages of what could become an
energy revolution. And although most installed wind capacity is in
Europe and the United States, the pattern is shifting.
In 2008, India and China each installed more wind capacity than any
other country except the United States and together they host nearly 20
percent of the world's capacity.
Solving the climate problem requires a transformation of the world's
energy systems in the coming decades. Research and Development
investments on the order of US$100 - $700 billion annually will be
needed, a major increase from the modest $13 billion a year of public
funds and $40 billion to $60 billion a year of private funds currently
invested.
Developing countries
Developing countries, particularly the poorest and most exposed, will
need assistance in adapting to the changing climate. Bangladesh, for
example, is among the world's most exposed countries to rising sea
levels. Bangladesh is already doing much to reduce the vulnerability of
its population. It has invested in a highly effective community-based
early warning system for cyclones and a flood forecasting and a response
program drawing on local and international expertise. But the scope of
possible adaptation is limited by resources, its annual per capita
income is $450.
Climate finance must be greatly expanded, since current funding
levels fall far short of foreseeable needs. Climate Investment Funds (CIFs),
managed by the World Bank and implemented jointly with regional
developing banks, offer one opportunity for leveraging support from
advanced countries, since these funds can buy-down the costs of
low-carbon technologies in developing countries.
Developing countries face 75-80 percent of the potential damage from
climate change. They urgently need help to prepare for drought, floods,
and rising sea levels.
They also need to intensify agricultural productivity, contain
malnutrition and disease, and build climate-resilient infrastructure,
said Justin Lin, World Bank Chief Economist and Senior Vice-President,
Development Economics.
The current financial crisis cannot be an excuse to put climate on
the back burner, the report warns. While financial crises may cause
serious hardship and reduce growth over the short-to medium-term, they
rarely last more than a few years. The threat of a warming climate is
far more severe and long-lasting.
Earth warming
The earth's warming climate is making the challenge of development
more complicated, even as one in four people still live on less than
$1.25 a day, and over a billion people do not have sufficient food to
meet their daily basic nutritional needs.
Grappling with climate shocks that are already hampering development
will not be easy. But promising new energy technologies can vastly
reduce future greenhouse gas emissions and prevent catastrophic climate
change. We also need to manage our farms, forests, and water resources
to ensure a sustainable future, said Rosina Bierbaum, WDR co-director
and Dean of the University of Michigan's School of Natural Resources and
Environment.
The good news is that a climate-smart world is within reach if we
work together now to overcome inertia, keep costs down, and modify our
energy, food, and risk management systems to ensure a safer future for
everybody, said Marianne Fay, WDR co-director and Chief Economist for
Sustainable Development at the World Bank.
There are real opportunities to shape our climate future for an
inclusive and sustainable globalization, but we need a new momentum for
concerted action on climate issues before it is too late, said Robert B.
Zoellick, World Bank Group President.
The World Bank Group's "Strategic Framework for Development and
Climate Change" puts emphasis on including mitigation and adaptation
initiatives in its lending, while recognizing that developing countries
need to encourage economic growth and reduce poverty.
The number of World Bank-financed studies that help client countries
plan and implement low-carbon growth strategies are also growing, and
the Bank Group's energy financing is increasingly turning towards
renewable energies and energy efficiency. Over the past three years,
approximately two-thirds of the Bank Group's total energy financing was
in the area of non-fossil fuels whereas around one-third was for fossil
fuels, of which half was for natural gas. |