End game in Sri Lanka
The Hindu opinion:
The conventional military game is up for the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam, or very nearly so. That is the message sent out to the
world by the capture of the Tigers’ main garrison town of Mullaithivu,
situated on a sliver of land between a lagoon and the Indian Ocean, by
the 59 division of the Sri Lankan Army three weeks after the 57 division
took Kilinochchi.
The army’s offensive has come on several fronts |
With the territory controlled by Velupillai Prabhakaran’s
organization shrinking from 15,000 square km in August 2006 to 350
square km today, with its fighting cadre strength believed to be down to
about 1,000, with its senior leaders hiding in pockets of jungle or on
the run, Army Commander Lt. Gen. Sarath Fonseka was not exaggerating
when he announced that the 25-year war was ‘95 per cent over’. Desperate
actions such as blowing up a tank bund to flood a section of the A-35
Paranthan-Mullaithivu main road and adjacent areas, and laying landmines
to prevent civilians from fleeing to government-controlled areas say it
all about the LTTE’s plight and character. For the secessionist
organization, the last 30 months have been one unbroken series of
miscalculations and military debacles.
The Sri Lankan armed forces have been on a roll ever since they
tasted success in the Mavil Aru operation - provoked by a severely
weakened LTTE’s foolish act of shutting the sluice gates and denying
water to more than 30,000 civilians in the Eastern Province. The real
surprise has come in the Northern Province where, beginning in March
2007, the Sri Lankan army, air force, and navy have simply decimated the
Tigers.
The army’s offensive has come on several fronts. It currently
involves five offensive divisions and three task forces rapidly closing
in on the top LTTE leaders and fighting cadres who have nowhere to
escape.
What residual fighting capability the organization retains in the
guerrilla mode and through urban terrorism remains to be seen. But there
is little doubt that politically speaking, the game is up for Mr.
Prabhakaran and his organization, which is banned or designated as
terrorist in about 30 countries, including India, the United States, the
United Kingdom, and in the latest instance Sri Lanka. It is certainly
too late for any bailout package, if that was ever on anybody’s
practical agenda. The immediate priority must be ensuring the safety of
Tamil civilians, officially reckoned to be in the range of 100,000 to
200,000, who the LTTE evidently has no compunction in using as a human
shield. That is the most sensitive humanitarian challenge before the Sri
Lankan government. Assuming it will be met successfully so that the
offensive military operations, including the final mopping up, can end
in a few weeks, President Mahinda Rajapaksa - whose political stock in
Sri Lanka’s South can be expected to be sky-high - must ensure that
there is no triumphalism.
Most important, he must seize the moment to build a national
consensus on an enduring political solution based on substantial
devolution of power to the Tamils within a united Sri Lanka. |