Lanka-LTTE war: A lesson in use of force
Harsh V. Pant
At a time when India is struggling to find the right policy mix to
deal with Pakistan-sponsored terrorism, two other terrorism-related
struggles are drawing global attention.
The more high-profile one is the Israeli counter offensive against
Hamas but another equally significant development is the gradual rout of
the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Sri Lankan Armed
Forces.
The Sri Lankan military is hoping that 2009 would be the year that
would finally witness the demise of the LTTE. The Tamil Tigers, on the
other hand, are keen to put to rest any doubts about their impending
collapse. And so, after a long silence, they finally made a statement
that despite recent setbacks they would bounce back.
consequences
What is happening in Sri Lanka today will have some far-reaching
consequences not only for Sri Lanka but also for the entire region.
Though Tamil separatism as a political ideology remains rather potent,
the LTTE as a military force was gradually withering away over the last
few years.
The LTTE have been fighting since 1982 to create an independent state
for Sri Lanka’s minority Tamils after decades of marginalisation by
Governments dominated by the ethnic Sinhalese majority.
failure of the LTTE
It have been estimated that more than 70,000 people have been killed
in the war. For the first time in years, the Sri Lankan military
offensive has virtually seized all major strongholds, marginalising the
Tigers to an extent that even their supporters are wondering about their
ability to hold on for another year.
The strategic failure of the LTTE lies in its not being able to read
the big picture accurately. Rather than keeping India on their side or,
at least, neutral, the Tigers antagonised the Indian public by
assassinating Rajiv Gandhi.
The result was that apart from a small fringe of political
sympathisers in Tamil Nadu, there has been very little political support
for the LTTE in India. Moreover, it was declared a terrorist
organisation by more than 30 states and in a political environment
shaped by September 11, 2001, there was little strategic space left for
the Tigers to manoeuvre.
So when the Mahinda Rajapaksa regime in Colombo decided that the time
for a steady military offensive had come, the LTTE was left bereft of
any outside support base.
military approach
It has been rightly pointed out that a purely military approach will
not resolve the problem of Tamil separatism. But the military option is
integral to dealing with the problem of violent extremism and terrorism,
something that the LTTE exemplified long before Islamist extremism came
to the fore.
It is nonsensical to suggest that terrorism cannot be defeated by
military force. It can be defeated by effective use of military power
but if the absence of terrorism and extremism is to be guaranteed on a
sustained basis, a comprehensive approach, that includes effective
economic, political and social changes, is needed.
victory
But such changes can only be brought about once a limited measure of
security has been achieved. And for this it is important to defeat
terrorists and insurgents militarily. This was how the US policy of
surge in Iraq achieved the desired results and one hopes that the Sri
Lankan government would follow up its military victory with suitable
socio-economic and political changes that can address the genuine
aspirations of the Tamils in Sri Lanka.
While the Sri Lankan Government says that whatever be the solution
Sri Lanka can’t be divided, the LTTE’s aim is to carve out a Tamil
homeland. India has always maintained that the conflict of Sri Lanka has
to be resolved within the territorial integrity of Sri Lanka and there
has been no change in this position.
success
Sri Lanka’s success in neutralising the LTTE should not only be
welcomed by India but it should also be emulated in certain respects. It
is very important for a state to demonstrate its credibility by
establishing its monopoly on the use of force.
The fact that the LTTE could run a parallel Government was hurting
the credibility of the Sri Lankan State and by demolishing that
capability of the LTTE, the Sri Lankan State has sent a strong message
that it remains the final arbiter as far as the legitimate use of force
within its territorial bounds is concerned. The capture of the de facto
capital of the LTTE, Kilinochchi, is therefore of great symbolic value
even though it’s not a great strategic asset.
A similar, and in many ways a much more severe problem confronts
India where the Indian state’s monopoly on the use of force is today
being questioned by various entities and the Indian state has shown a
remarkable reluctance to impose its will on such groups.
The Indian elite should recognise that India is a regional hegemon
because of its size and capabilities. It will be resented because of
this no matter what, by its neighbouring states to various degree. But
it is for India to first establish its will within its own territory and
then play the role of a security provider in the region before thinking
of a global role for itself.
strategic milieu
India should now insist that the Lankans push through a political
devolution package for the Tamils, which India sees as essential if any
long-term reconciliation is to be achieved.
The Tamil separatist movement’s end has been forecast on many
occasions since its inception in the 1970s but the LTTE has proven adept
at adapting itself to changing strategic milieu previously.
Yet what is clear is that the LTTE is at its lowest ebb today, and if
the Sri Lankan Government can play its cards right, this might be the
beginning of a new era for Sri Lanka and the region.
The writer Harsh V. Pant teaches in King’s College London. |