A blue ocean strategy can save Sri Lanka exports
Marketer and Business personality Rohantha Athukorala currently
serving the country as the Director Economic Affairs of the Government's
Peace Secretariat addressing the Sri Lanka Institute of Marketing's Asia
Pacific Marketers Alumni said given the credit crunch in the key markets
where Sri Lankan exports are targeted, the way forward is to develop
sector specific Government-Government pacts so that Sri Lanka can
protect Sri Lanka exports.
Rohantha Athukorala |
He cited the testing of this concept can be a probable trade pact
between Sri Lanka-Iran or Sri Lanka and China for Tea so and there after
extend this strategy to the rest of the sectors so that we protect Sri
Lanka exports.
However, Athukorala said these trade pacts must be based on a pricing
strategy to just cover the costs and keep the home fires burning so that
there is a continuity of the industry where by jobs are secured and not
making a hit for short term profit gain.
These pacts can also be used to get rid of stock pile ups like what
has happened to the tea industry that first to get hit due to global
financial turmoil. May be then one can use the variable costing basis so
that the net loss is not great Athukorala suggested.
The speaker said different countries are getting the impact of the
global financial crisis in different ways. For instance in India a
credit squeeze has led to Sri Lankan spice exporters kept waiting to
receive almost two million dollars from Indian buyers.
In some countries when a LC is opened the bank stipulates that a
hundred per cent deposit needs to be made while in some countries it is
mandatory that all export proceeds have to be brought back to the home
country if not a penalty is imposed, which are all safe guards infused
in to the system by their Central Banks to brace one self from a
financial crisis hitting a home country.
Athukorala said Sri Lanka too is practising some of these measures to
protect the country which is a very prudent move.
The speaker clearly mentioned that depreciating the currency to the
level of Rs.123/- odd is not the correct strategy and the export
community must not even recommend same, given that a more macro national
perspective must be thought, than only from a export competitive
perspective.
Athukorala being a Former Chairman of the Sri Lanka Export
Development Board welcomed the 2 per cent odd depreciation of the
currency that came into effect last week given that it gave relief even
partially to an exporter.
Athukorala urged the private sector to work out a game plan fast
where for each sector a high powered team is identified that consist of
the private and public sector so that the idea of a govt-govt trade pact
can be in place to secure priority orders from key export markets. In
the event things become really rough, it can be secured by the
Government.
Apparently in the word of business a new concept has been developed
called Blue Ocean Strategy by two scientists called Chan Kim and Ranee
Mauborgne states that one way to win in the entrenched competitive
market place of today is by creating an uncontested market place and
making competition irrelevant. May be the "Govt -Govt Trade Pact"
strategy is one way out to create a Blue Ocean Strategy in the short
term said Athukorala but emphasised that a more sustainable strategy
should be developed on a sectoral basis.
Blue Ocean Strategy - apparel, tea and
tourism
For the apparel sector,the use of Nano technology can be a one way to
cut away from competition and create an uncontested space that Sri Lanka
can command a leadership even in a cash trapped global market. On Tea
since Sri Lanka is the only country in the world to be awarded the Ozone
Friendly status label may be we can highlight this by moving to
manufacturing high quality teas and drive towards value addition in 2009
where we can make 75 per cent of the teas that are exported value added.
May be the tea packets can be termed value added in the 2009 budget
and tax breaks given.
Funding to build five more new tea brands should be pursued. On
Tourism Athukorala said the way forward is the positioning of Sri Lanka
as the "Ethically right clean country positioning". The logic being that
the pollution level in Sri Lanka is only 11.5 mt of carbon dioxide as
against the 3156 and 5012 in countries like India and China.
Consumer spending shrinks - Apparel?
From a more fundamental point of view Athukorala said that one of Sri
Lanka's key markets the United States consumer spending is mainly
borrowed.
With the housing bubble bursting, the overall asset prices had
started declining. As soon as the asset prices dropped so did the
liquidity and hence shrinks the consumer spending said the speaker.
Current estimates are that spending will decline by 3-5 per cent in
an overall sense. However sector wise volumes can drop by almost 15 per
cent depending on the product range and the impact on the basket of
goods on US household as in September alone 156,000 people lost their
jobs noted Athukorala.
Apparently economic analysts have forecasted the third quarter in the
US the GDP growth to around 1.5 per cent and register a zero to negative
growth in the 1st quarter of 2009 which is why local garment
manufacturer are commenting that 2009 will be very tough year for the
industry.
Exports have already slowed down in the key markets for the Apparel
sector and the top buyers are under pressure Athukorala said ideally the
700 billion economic bail out given in the United States should have
been activated with a roll out of economic and financial reforms so that
the real impact could have hit the US household quicker and impact to
world economies lesser.
But this is not that happened and hence the world will have to play a
wait and see game. Now the situation is like the heart is pumping the
blood but it is not going to the veins in the body, hence the different
parts of the body is getting life less. Last month the share of exports
to the US has dropped 48 percent as per the data of JAFF.
However, the proactive stance taken by the EU must be commented as it
given confidence to the investors and avoids the media creating
speculations that hurt market momentum quipped Athukorala.
SL-India FTA - 10 sectors
The speaker urged the private sector to forget the issues that Sri
Lanka have with India on the FTA and start a fresh. May be once again A
private - Public task force can be put together to identify 10
categories and ruthlessly target India and within 6 months make a mark
in the market place.
The task of the public sector from India and Sri Lanka is to work
together and clear any non tariff barriers that emerge in the Indian
ports so that with this success may be seriously look at the
Comprehensive Trade Agreement or better known as CEPA. However, a point
to note is that let each country want the CEPA agreement and lets not
just force the trade deal to the private sector. In fact it should
Demand driven than supply driven cautioned Athukorala.
Tea industry - moment of truth
Athukorala urged the tea industry to face to the reality of the
commodity market slump due to the crisis. His thought was that Sri
Lankan Tea was out priced in the market in the recent past and it was
bound to have a market correction. It has happened now and we have to
accept it.
There is no point holding on to stocks and not supplying the market
assuming that the prices will improve in the near future. May be take a
short term hit on the profit and get rid of the stocks so that
additional stock holding cost will reduce.
What is required is to re look at the business model and reduce the
cost of manufacture whilst making a quality tea. Its all about
equilibrium right now said Athukorala and he went to say that the
Industry must make use of the opportunity and inform the union on the
new reality so that one cannot push for wage increases that is
unreasonable and unreasonable.
Sometimes I feel it's a blessing in disguise quipped Athukorala but
said that the situation needs to be carefully monitored and a bail out
package be prepared for the small timers and bought leaf manufacturers
in the event the market does not stabilise.
Another option he recommended was to use the strong links we have
with Iran and China and ask for priority orders on a government to
government basis so that we can clear the backlog.
Thereafter drive the producers to make high quality teas which have
not got hit due to the crisis.
On the other hand we must develop the value added tea sector with
strategic incentives to the Industry and may be the next budget must
allocate the required moneys to the Sri Lanka Tea Board was mentioned by
Athukorala
IPL spirit to business
The speaker said marketers need to be creative and keep innovating so
that a Blue Ocean Strategy can emerge. The best case in point is HSBC
who made the competition irrelevant by launching E Banking where all
transaction can be done on the internet wherever one is housed in the
country.
At a macro sense too innovation must take place so that Sri Lanka
will emerge as a nation that is progressive and aggressive and not wait
for the world to unfold and create calmer waters. |