It is a matter of judgement
Richard Holbrooke
Where McCain is impulsive and emotional, Obama is low-key and
unemotional.
He makes his judgements in a calm and methodical manner; McCain's
impulsiveness is anathema to Obama, and rightly so - one cannot play
craps with history.
The winner of America's Presidential Election will inherit a perfect
storm of problems, both economic and international. He will face the
most difficult opening-day agenda of any president since - and I say
this in all seriousness - the man who saved the Union, Abraham Lincoln.
But a more instructive precedent is 1933, when Franklin Roosevelt
offered inspiring rhetoric and "bold experimentation" to a nation facing
economic meltdown and a breakdown in public confidence.
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Obama |
McCain |
For me, the choice is simple - and not only because I am, by
temperament and history, a Democrat. The long and intense political
campaign has revealed huge differences in the two candidates' positions,
style, and personal qualities. And the conclusion seems clear.
Judgement
John McCain has shown throughout his career a penchant for
risk-taking; in his memoirs, he proudly calls himself a gambler.
His selection of Sarah Palin, a charismatic but spectacularly
unqualified candidate, as his running mate, is just the most glaring of
many examples of the real McCain. His bravery in combat attests to his
patriotism, courage, and toughness, but his judgement has been found
sorely lacking time and time again over his career.
Barack Obama is tough, too, but in a different way. No one should
underestimate how difficult it was to travel his road, against
incredible odds, to the cusp of the presidency.
But where McCain is impulsive and emotional, Obama is low-key and
unemotional. He makes his judgements in a calm and methodical manner;
McCain's impulsiveness is anathema to Obama, and rightly so - one cannot
play craps with history. Having seen so many political leaders falter
under pressure, I prize this ability above most others. And Barack Obama
has it.
The economy.
The first priority of the new president will be the economy and the
financial crisis. Since the crisis hit, Obama has been calm and, indeed,
presidential. He consulted the best advisory team in the nation, weighed
each course of action carefully, and then issued a series of precise,
calm statements. Meanwhile, McCain has veered bizarrely, issuing
contradictory statements, "suspending" his campaign (while continuing to
campaign), and urging that the first debate be cancelled (when it was
all the more needed).
Advantage Obama.
'Foreign policy'
The most explicit disagreements between the candidates are over Iraq,
Iran, and Russia.
But there are deeper differences. McCain's positions, with the
notable exception of climate change, suggest that he would simply try to
carry out George W Bush's policies more effectively.
Obama offers a different approach to foreign policy.
By starting to draw down combat troops in Iraq, Obama would change
the image and policies of America immediately.
By engaging Iran in talks that would cover not only the nuclear issue
but other aspects of Iran's destabilising role in the region, he would
either reach agreements that lowered the dangers from Iran, or he would
mobilise a stronger international coalition to isolate Iran.
Either way, engaging Iran is the right policy, and it is hard to
understand why Bush and McCain have continued to hold out against such
an obvious change of course, which, if carried out with firmness, will
not compromise American or Israeli national security.
On Russia since its invasion of Georgia, Obama and his running mate,
Joe Biden (who was the first member of Congress to visit Georgia after
the invasion), emphasise helping Georgia rebuild its economy and
maintain its independence in the face of a continuing Russian campaign
against it.
McCain, on the other hand, wants to punish Russia by such actions as
expelling it from the G-8.
Such measures may ultimately be necessary, but they will not help
Georgia survive as an independent democracy. Moreover, even after the
outrage in Georgia, there are issues of common interest - such as
energy, climate change, and Iran - on which the West and the Kremlin
must cooperate. This was true even during the Cold War, and remains true
today, yet McCain seems not to recognise it.
Leadership
In the end, all presidential elections come down to the intangibles
of leadership. The vote for a president is a sort of private contract
directly between each voter and his or her preferred choice. Who do you
want to see on your television screen for the next four years? To whom
do you wish to entrust the nation's fate?
Here again, the contrasting styles of Obama and McCain offer a clear
choice between a calm and confident man and a highly emotional one,
between a major change in the nation's direction and a minor one,
between a conciliatory style and a more combative one.
Effectiveness
Finally, in a year in which the Democrats are certain to increase
their majority in both houses of Congress, an Obama victory would offer
the Democrats control of both the legislative and executive branches for
the first time since 1994, and with it the possibility of legislative
achievement after years of stalemate. After so many years of
polarisation at home and unilateralism abroad, the choice for president
seems clear.
Richard Holbrooke is a former US ambassador to the United Nations.
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