Russia on the road to modernisation
Vladimir RADYUHIN
President Vladimir Putin’s choice of First Deputy Prime Minister
Dmitry Medvedev as his favoured successor signals a new phase in
Russia’s transition from a Communist state to a market democracy.
During his eight-year presidency, Putin has pulled Russia together
after the chaotic meltdown during his predecessor Boris Yeltsin’s two
terms.
Vladimir Putin gives an attentive ear to Dmitry Medvedev
during a meeting. |
He crushed Islamist separatists in Chechnya, reasserted the Centre’s
authority over other regions, set the country firmly on the road to
economic revival and restored Russia’s stature as a global power.
Putin has acted with a firm resolve to strengthen the State. He cut
to size predatory Yeltsin-era oligarchs, cancelled direct elections of
regional governors, re-imposed state control over energy and other
strategic sectors, and re-nationalised federal television channels.
Putin’s reforms have prepared Russia for the next stage of
modernisation that Medvedev will be responsible for. His elevation
brings a post-Soviet generation to power for the first time. At 42,
Medvedev will be the youngest leader Russia has ever had in its modern
history. Putin was 47 when he became President.
A great fan of hard rock and recognised authority on Roman law,
Medvedev has a background that is totally different from Soviet-trained
bureaucrats. He was still a law student at St. Petersburg State
University when Mikhail Gorbachev launched perestroika, and has made his
entire career in the post-Soviet era.
Medvedev comes from the Kremlin’s liberal wing. At the World Economic
Forum in Davos this year, where Medvedev made his international debut,
he asserted his credo as a liberal reformer and moderate nationalist.
“We are well aware that no undemocratic state has ever become truly
prosperous for one simple reason: freedom is better than non-freedom,”
he said addressing world leaders and business tycoons in English.
“In the 21st century, we see Russia as a developed country with
strong economy and as a reliable trade and political partner,” he said
adding a stern warning to the West: “We aren’t trying to push anyone to
love Russia, but we won’t allow anyone to hurt Russia.”
Medvedev’s task will be to take Russia along the road of a socially
oriented market economy and liberal political reforms. He has indicated
that higher living standards will be the top priority of his presidency.
“The [economic] successes achieved in the past eight years must now
be converted into credible social programmes,” Medvedev told his
supporters in Parliament ahead of his official nomination by the United
Russia party on December 17.
Earlier, he called for developing an independent judicial system;
rapid expansion of small and medium-sized businesses; improved business
climate, including a “sensible” tax regime and stable property rights;
and eventual diminishing of the state’s role in the economy.
“Traditional state capitalism is a dead end for developing the
economy,” he said. “State-owned companies cannot ensure the growth of
small and medium-sized businesses on their own. And this is the basis of
any economy, the basis for civil society.”
The Russian market has applauded Medvedev’s nomination sending stock
indices to record-high levels.
“By supporting Medvedev, Mr. Putin has made a choice in favour of a
major shift towards reforms based on liberal-conservative rather than
state-administrative values,” said President of the influential Russian
Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs Alexander Shokhin.
Despite his young age, Medvedev is far better prepared for presidency
than Putin was when President Yeltsin plucked him from virtual
obscurity.
For the past seven years, he has combined his work in the Kremlin
with chairmanship of the natural gas giant Gazprom. He has helped
transform the behemoth monopoly that functioned like a Soviet-era
ministry into a Western-type corporation.
Medvedev has all the makings to become as strong a President as
Putin. He has displayed a combination of ruthlessness and diplomacy in
waging “energy wars” with former Soviet republics over higher gas prices
and in wresting control of Sakhalin-2 and the Kovykta gas field from
Western energy companies.
Two years ago, Putin appointed Medvedev First Deputy Prime Minister
in-charge of five federal social programmes intended to address Russia’s
ills in the spheres of health, education, housing, food production, and
demography. The work has fully exposed Medvedev to the low efficiency of
the Russian bureaucracy and the inadequacy of legislation.
Medvedev is an ideal choice of successor to implement Putin’s grand
plan for strategic integration with Europe. Despite Russia’s steadily
growing economic ties with Europe, its leaders have treated Putin as an
alien authoritarian ruler with a KGB secret service background.
Medvedev with his liberal views, English skills, easy-going manner
and no links with security agencies, is well positioned to win greater
acceptance in the West. He has repeatedly asserted Russia’s “European
identity” and his preference for “a normal full-fledged multiparty
system.”
“We subscribe to universal values, to the supremacy of private
property and human rights. We want to be a full-fledged member of the
European family,” Medvedev said in one of his rare interviews.
Medvedev becoming Russia’s next President will mean stability and
continuity of domestic and foreign policies.
As he announced his support for Medvedev, Putin stressed that the
would-be President was his close ally who had stood by his side for the
past 17 years and who would continue his course after Putin steps down
next year in line with a Constitutional ban on Heads of State serving
more than two consecutive terms.
Medvedev lost no time in reaffirming his loyalty to Putin by asking
him to become Prime Minister after the March 2 Presidential Poll. It is
unlikely that Putin will accept the invitation.
Speaking at a Russia-European Union summit in Lisbon in October, he
explicitly rejected the option: “And if anyone thinks that I intend to
take over the Government and shift major powers there, they are
mistaken,” Putin told a post-summit press conference.
Putin’s premiership under President Medvedev is fraught with the risk
of conflict and instability, as it would create two centres of power.
The Prime Minister is number two in the Russian hierarchy, but if Putin
takes the job President Medvedev will be junior to him.
Medvedev’s offer of premiership to Putin served three immediate
purposes. First, it was designed to help boost the presidential
candidate’s popularity. The same pre-election technology worked in the
Parliamentary poll held on December 2.
United Russia captured over 64 per cent of the votes in large measure
thanks to the hugely popular President’s presence on the top of its
candidates list. Medvedev’s message to the electorate is that his close
association with Putin will continue after the presidential poll. This
should allow Medvedev to win in the first round no matter how many other
candidates run against him.
Secondly, Medvedev sought to reassure the Russian elites that there
would be no major Government reshuffles. Putin’s support for his
candidacy signalled a defeat for the so-called “silovili” clan of acting
and former security officials, who were opposed to Medvedev’s
nomination.
This threatens to upset a precarious balance Putin has maintained
between rival clans in the Kremlin. Medvedev has now told the “siloviki”
that they need not worry.
“It is important to keep the effectiveness of the team created by the
incumbent President,” Medvedev said in his televised address to Putin to
accept the post of Prime Minister.
Thirdly, by indicating his preference for Putin as Prime Minister,
Medvedev has effectively postponed the need to reveal his actual choice
for premier probably till after the presidential poll. Medvedev’s offer
was also a gesture of respect for Putin whom he always saw as his mentor
and superior.
One cannot rule out Putin becoming Prime Minister. But this is rather
a fallback option if the turf war between rival Kremlin clans escalates
and the new President needs help before he gets the situation under
control.
Otherwise, Putin may choose to head the ruling party, United Russia,
which will enable him to continue to dominate Russian politics through
the control of Parliament.
Whatever Putin’s future role, he will work in tandem with the new
President.
He and Medvedev share the same long-term vision for Russia as a
strong diversified economy, multiparty democracy and global power. |