An Olympics free of terror

By a Security Analyst

The nation of Dragons is fully geared to host the global event - Beijing Olympics 2008 - with every corner of the city decorated with Olympic colours, symbols and its motto “One Dream - One World.”

But whether its security establishments are prepared to take up the challenge of any ‘disturbing effort’ by global terror groups remains an unanswered question.

No one on earth can answer this hypothetical question, let alone the Chinese. But Beijing is getting its eyes and ears sharpened through many avenues to make the global event free of any such disturbing incident, a move that needs assistance from all the nations around the world, including the US.

The US, the main actor in the global war against terror, is still reluctant to collaborate with the Chinese in the counter-terrorism front. China, too, has its own way of ‘doing things’ which annoys the West.

Like in many other instances, sport is the best opportunity to break the ice. Olympics and its preparations could play a significant role in bridging the gaps in security fronts between China and the West, especially with the US, at least in combating global terrorism.

China is not a declared ‘enemy’ of the global terror network Al-Qaeda. Bin Laden, in his all speeches since 9/11 has mentioned China only in two instances along with several other countries, without any specific references to Beijing.

China so far is a neutral player for Al Qaeda, but is closely watching its future role once it becomes a global leader.

Would China join the West in its global war against terror is the present worry among Al-Qaeda leadership. It would also closely monitor how a future China is going to treat the Jews. China, therefore, is not a target of Al-Qaeda, so far.

But the Olympics is. For Islamic extremists, Olympic is an event of the West and its activities and surroundings are very much against their fundamentalist views. Hence, the event itself had been a major attraction of Jihadi movements for some time.

The PLO launched an attack on Munich Olympics in 1972. Someone could claim that this attack is no more relevant to the present day context, but its reasons behind and the justifications still remain valid, even after 35 years.

The attackers always look for better ways of getting maximum publicity for their cause through major cross-border impact.

For an example, if one considers the July 07 attacks in London, it signified two events - the UK’s victory of the next Olympic venue against France (July 6) and the G8 Summit (July 8). Thus, Olympics provide a fabulous opportunity to gain maximum publicity through a major impact.

Therefore, the intention of the potential terror networks would be extremely high to make use of the opportunity to reach their goals.

Who are the capable groups that could launch an attack on Beijing Olympics? As Chinese authorities believe, it can be from many fronts. They suspect Tibetan movements, Southern Thai insurgents, Faalung Gong activists, anti China NGOs or some entities (probably countries) who are not happy with Chinese policies.

But the most capable groups which are highly active and motivated in conducting such an attack are the Jihadi movements operating in the East Tajikistan region. Among them, the most dangerous is East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist Muslim group operating in China’s western Xinjiang province.

The ETIM, one of the most militant and highly networked groups in the region, demands separation from China and the creation of an independent state called East Turkestan. With operating cells in Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, ETIM has carried out more than 200 attacks since 1990, killing 162 people.

Its link with Al Qaeda is well known to the research and intelligence agencies. Initially a nationalistic movement lead by Hassan Maksum, ETIM has been turned into a major Jihadi movement under the present leadership of Abdul Qadeer Haj.

It is important to notice that the majority of the Xinjiang Muslim population do not support ETIM - they prefer the rule of the Chinese government.

China has destroyed more than 10 ETIM camps in the past couple of years and launched successful operations to crush the group while implementing socio-economic development programmes in the region.

The total number of ETIM cadres does not exceed 500 with a comprehensive portion of it gaining Al-Qaeda training in Afghanistan and Pakistan. The training included suicide bombing, a major concern for Chinese, especially during the Olympics.

According to intelligence reports Al Qaeda’s instructions to ETIM had been to operate in and outside of Xingjian, hit a small number of symbolic, high profile, specific targets with high impact and also to conduct suicide attacks.

Though they had been trained, it is highly debatable whether the ETIM can practically carry out such attacks against Olympics.

Conducting a high intensity attack in Beijing by ETIM is a remote possibility, believe many security experts.

They may have to transport explosives from far (probably from Tajik or Uzbek borders) to Beijing and conduct a highly secretive preparation in order to carry out such an operation, which is an extremely difficult task given the high security network in the capital.

But the threat probabilities could never be ruled out. Chinese security services have already commenced their home work and adopting necessary precautions against such possible incidents,

Security has already been tightened and plain cloths sleuths are on high alert everywhere. However, they require more knowledge on modus operandi of terrorist activities and also networking with other intelligence agencies, especially those of the West. It should not confine vigilance to ETIM, but should even learn about the behavioural patterns of groups like the LTTE.

The threats shall necessarily be in China or it’s capital alone. All Chinese interests around the globe could be vulnerable. China should be mindful of all these possibilities, if we are to enjoy a peaceful Olympic on 08.08.2008 - a day of happiness according to Chinese belief.