Global oil extinction: Could be a blessing in disguise for Lanka

Sanka WIJEYAKULASURIYA

ENERGY CRISIS: Extinction has become so common that now we don’t even trouble ourselves to be concerned about them. We see signs all around us but we turn a blind eye to all of them.

400 Biologists carried out a survey conducted by the New York’s American Museum of Natural History and they came to the conclusion that by 2028, 20% of all living populations could become extinct.

In 1973 there was an Oil Crisis when the members of Organisation of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC, consisting of the Arab members of OPEC plus Egypt and Syria) announced, as a result of the ongoing Yom Kippur War, that they would no longer ship petroleum to nations that had supported Israel in its conflict with Syria and Egypt (i.e., to the United States, its allies in Western Europe, and to Japan).

About the same time, OPEC members agreed to use their leverage over the world price-setting mechanism for oil in order to raise world oil prices. Global economists say that “the 1973 oil crisis will be a small glass of water compared to the vast ocean of problems the world will have to face in 2017.”

There are 98 oil producing powerful countries in the world that are headed towards loss of their oil market shares. UN’s OPEC will have to be closed down. Thousands of oil refineries will have to be redesigned for other production markets or they will have to be shut down.

Hundreds of oil pipe lines will be useless. Billions of internal combustion engines in vehicles all over the world will have to be redesigned. Because there will be no oil left on the face of this Earth by the year 2017 to generate energy. That’s how serious it will be in just another 9 1/2 years time.

Everyone predicted that USA will be the monopoly vendor in Energy supply after the oil crisis hits the world due to their untouched oil wells. But now it seems that without oil imports, USA’s oil wells will finish in 3 years at the current rate of consumption.

Giant American companies such as Exxon Mobil (2nd in Fortune 500 list in 2007), General Motors (3rd in the list), Chevron (4th), and Ford (7th) are among a few who will all be affected to the maximum.

16-19 companies from the 1st 100 of the Fortune 500 in America are already preparing their exit strategies from the oil related markets due to heavy conversion costs to other energy mechanisms.

Over the next couple of years, Mexico’s economy will be hard-hit as a result of the pre-effects of the Oil crisis according to the 2007 US State of the Union. After the extinction of Oil it would take one new nuclear power plant every week until 2050 to fill the oil gap in USA.

That’s how bad it will be to the USA and they have understood the gravity of this situation and they are preparing for it in more than one way. Substitute power sources will be used. Liquid fuel substitutes such as

1. Tar sands

2. Coal-to-liquids

3. Oil shale

4. Ethanol

5. Bio Diesel

are carbon intensive and will only exacerbate global warming. But the countries will not be concerned about global warming once their economy starts falling drastically, giving rise to many other different problems.

Are we ready for this? Our entire production and transportation market is based on oil. Sadly Sri Lankans haven’t done a thing to react to this humongous market collapse.

This is an energy crisis unlike any the world has ever before experienced. International currency rates will definitely fluctuate in a manner which is hard to predict.

Conflicts among countries will start for reasons based on substitute energy bases. Power shifts of world economy drivers will take place. Minor countries who adapts to the situation well will emerge as powerful nations. Climate changes will take place due to global warming.

The 2017 global oil extinction could be a blessing in disguise for Sri Lanka if we act quickly. We have “three unlimited power energy sources” we still haven’t touched.

1. Burning Sun

2. Strong Wind

3. Strong Waves

We are in an island covered by the Indian Ocean where we have sea wind and waves all around the country with the tropical sun above us. If we capitalise on these three sources, we can produce and export energy for as long as we want since they are not scarce.

This is a several billion dollar market opportunity if the Government is ready to grab it. Here we have a chance of becoming one of the next generation Middle East countries who sat on gold like oil mines. All we have to do is to convert from oil into solar, wind and wave energy as soon as possible.

The conversion process is not as easy as it seems, but the effort is definitely worth compared to the benefits. This alone is enough to redeem Sri Lanka from the unfortunate economic state we are in right now. Middle Eastern countries only have oil and we all know how rich they are. We just have to follow in their footsteps.

All the automobile companies in the world like Ferrari, Mercedes Benz, Jaguar, etc will be on the lookout for new sources to power their engines. Not to mention all the airbuses like Boeing, Chernov, etc. For them the first come will be first served. At the beginning of the crisis the global demand for a product like energy will be priceless.

This gives rise to the next unforgettable question, what will happen when we run out of substitute energy sources. Michel de Nostradamus in the 16th Century said that “we humans will come to the no return point of where there’s no natural resource left to consume.” The question is: Is this the first inevitable sign to the beginning of the end for natural resources?