Is the death knell for the LTTE sounding?

Geoffrey Evarts

BLOW TO LTTE: The LTTE has been dealt a double blow - possibly its most crippling - within a space of 48 hours. First, its main arms procurement officer, was arrested. He was the brains and operations director of the Tigers rearming and re-supplying effort. The Navy was able to detect and destroy three major Tiger arms shipments.

The detection and destruction of the arms shipments can possibly be due to the arrest or else the successful Navy operations, or both these factors combined. Also, together with the several detections and destruction of earlier arms shipments, it is safe to presume that the Tigers are feeling the pinch of the successful Naval blockade, and suffering a severe short supply of arms and ammunition.

This is a major setback for the LTTE as this will mean a further disruption of the Tigers stream of arms supplies. With the Navy’s intensified sea patrol operations, the Tigers are increasingly losing their ability to wage

 sustained warfare (especially the conventional type, as this requires large stocks of ammo constantly re-supplied).

As this writer has pointed out before, if the Tigers are defeated conventionally and go back to ‘guerrilla mode’, they will be increasingly pushed into the ‘global war on terrorism’ bracket, and will lose the sustenance of their international backers, and earn the ire of the International Community.

Another interesting point which almost slipped past the media’s attention is that the Government is looking at opening up a land route to supply essential items to the Jaffna peninsula. Currently Jaffna is supplied by air and sea which is an extremely costly exercise.

Discussions between the Government, ICRC and the LTTE are ongoing in this regard, as supplies will have to pass through both Government and LTTE held territory. However, if these talks fail, the Government will be compelled to militarily force open a land route to supply Jaffna.

Hence, it seems that President Mahinda Rajapaksa has been extremely successful in pursuing his strategy of militarily defeating the Tigers. Also, like this writer has pointed out in the past, the President has had to accommodate hundreds of ministers in order to consolidate and maintain power to pursue the military defeat of the LTTE. The economy has also, understandably, taken a severe beating from the war effort.

The Opposition also seems hell bent on toppling the Rajapaksa regime. The Lankan media reports that several ministers are also sniffing the fickle winds and preparing to pole vault for personal gain. The Opposition is also reportedly preparing a political trap for the JVP - by way of presenting several no-confidence motions on valid issues such as the COPE report and the ‘MiG’ controversy.

On the ‘MiG’ controversy, this writer wishes to question the Lankan media on why the MiG issue is such a controversy ? Where is the controversy in the story ? And why wasn’t the answers given by the Government highlighted ?

For example, it was reported that the MiG’s are old aircraft purchased at a much higher price than previous MiG purchases. In reply, the Government and the Air Force, while admitting that these are indeed old (reconditioned) aircraft, explained that the higher purchase price was because the aircraft have been given a complete overhaul, extending their lifespan and operational capabilities, thereby decreasing the cost of maintenance, and increasing performance.

Also, on the subject of the dubious ‘middle man’ company (Bellimissa Holdings), the Government explained that this was the company nominated by the Ukrainian government.

So to me it seems that if there were any kickbacks from this deal, it was some high up official in the Ukrainian establishment receiving it, and not somebody in the Sri Lankan establishment. (The man behind Belimissa Holdings - a certain Kuldyarkev - also seems to be of Ukrainian descent).

It also must be noted that the Ukrainian Government does not have the best of track records in the honesty department when it comes to arms sales.

During the initial days of the end of the Cold War, Western powers had a real fear that corrupt Ukrainian officials will even go to the extent of selling their nuclear arsenal to international arms dealers and terrorists.

It seems that the main stumbling block to the military defeat of the LTTE (which seems to be getting closer by the day) seems to be opportunistic politicians looking to grab power and privileges.

This and this factor alone has always been the bane of good ole Lanka’s existence, and unless something is done about this opportunistic political culture, Sri Lanka will remain in this well of despair and underdevelopment it currently is, even if peace is restored in the country.

- Asian Tribune