The good shape of things to come

Irfan Husain

FUTURE: Mankind has always struggled to learn what tomorrow holds. Seers and oracles have been consulted. Prophets have foretold our destiny. And even the entrails of dead animals have been consulted.

But the future guards its secrets jealously. More recently, science and reason have been called into service. Complex programmes running on powerful computers make projections based on the past and the present. Weather forecasting is an example of this kind of technology.

But the past is behind us, immutable and unchangeable. Unlocking the future remains the ultimate challenge. So this week, I am venturing on a far more difficult exercise, and guessing at what the subcontinent might look like in 2047, a century after Partition and Independence.

I realise that this kind of foray into futurology might upset some readers, but I would like to remind them that this, too, is just a game.

For a start, my crystal ball shows that friction between India and Pakistan over Kashmir is a thing of the past. The Line of Control was declared the international border in 2012, and has long been open to trade and tourists.

Indeed, the violence generated by faith-driven ideologies has subsided, not just on the subcontinent, but the entire world. Like the religious wars fought in Europe centuries ago, the present clash of ideologies, too, has run its course.

This is not to suggest that the world is suddenly blessed with peace. Far from it. Wars are now fought over resources. Water is getting scarcer as glaciers have melted, and the monsoons have become erratic as a result of global warming.

On the subcontinent, tension is rising over the division of rivers that spring from common sources, but flow into Pakistan through India. The former accuses the latter of diverting its share of precious water.

International arbitration is often resorted to, but these constant charges generate considerable political and economic tension. Internally, in Pakistan the federal structure has been greatly weakened by the insistence of the smaller provinces on controlling their resources and their destiny.

But to this day, the Punjabi establishment tries to pressure Baloch, Sindhi and Pashtun politicians to toe the line. But each federating unit is proud and prickly. The result is a shaky federation that does not speak with one voice. Policy is no longer made exclusively in Islamabad, but is subject to vetoes from Karachi, Peshawar and Quetta.

In India, too, this centrifugal force is at work. South India, the dynamo of the country, increasingly resents having to contribute to the chaotic north.

States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu are, to all practical purposes, independent. They fly the Indian flag more for convenience than from compulsion. Indeed, much of India is now more a loose confederation than a centrally administered federation. To all intents, the vast and varied subcontinent has reverted to its ancient political geography.

This de facto Balkanisation has its advantages and disadvantages. On the one hand, smaller units have seen a cultural renaissance as languages, literature and the arts have thrived, thanks to a loosening of ties with a controlling and stifling majority. But simultaneously, bickering over minor issues between small neighbours is a destabilising fact of life.

India by now has long been a member of the UN Security Council, although the organisation now exists largely in name only. Some of its cultural and developmental agencies continue to do useful work, but for years, it has been politically marginalised. The great powers hold informal consultations to try and prevent local conflicts from getting out of hand.

Inevitably perhaps, friction between India and China, the two Asian giants, has grown. Both continue to expand their markets, and clash over the procurement of resources like increasingly precious oil and ores.

In this clash, Pakistan is seen both as a buffer and a potential ally. Diplomats from Beijing and New Delhi vie for an advantage, with Islamabad becoming a hive of espionage.

By now, the population on the subcontinent has stabilised at close to three billion, and absolute poverty has declined. Globalisation has provided more jobs, and increased productivity in agriculture has made previously marginal land holdings profitable. Drip irrigation has made vast tracts of the desert bloom.

Israeli experts have helped train thousands of farmers in more economical ways to use water. Given the huge economic and military gap that has opened between the two neighbours, all talk of a ‘balance of power’ between India and Pakistan has long been forgotten. Nevertheless, there are still elements in both countries who nurse ancient grudges.

Radical nationalist groups in India harbour hopes for a ‘Greater India’ encompassing Pakistan and Bangladesh. In Pakistan, some extremists still dream of the day when the green flag of Islam will flutter over Delhi’s Red Fort. But these are fringe groups with little or no real influence.

Socially, gender discrimination in Pakistan has declined, especially in urban centres where economic necessity has put millions of women in the workplace. This trend has been accelerated by the demise of the feudal system.

However, female illiteracy is still rampant in the tribal areas of Balochistan and the North Western Frontier Province that was re-named Pashtunistan after the referendum of 2023.

However, despite the normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan, both countries continue to maintain large defence forces. Although disarmament talks have been held from time to time, there has been no breakthrough.

Thus, a century of independence has witnessed the waste of hundreds of billions. Hawks on both sides insist that it is this uneasy balance of forces, underwritten by a powerful nuclear capability that has prevented more wars from breaking out. But for the poor, this is not an easy argument to accept.

So all in all, it’s not a very optimistic picture. But it’s not all bad, either. I can only be grateful I will not be around to be told how wrong I was when the subcontinent celebrates a century of independence.

Irfan Husain is an eminent Pakistani writer based in London. He can be reached at [email protected]