Sino-Japanese thaw presaging deescalating tensions in Asia

EVIDENCE: Economics drive politics - the latest evidence that this could be so comes from the arena of Sino-Japanese relations.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao’s recent visit to Japan could very well have launched a new era in the ties between the estranged East Asian neighbours.

“The Chinese public must foster friendship with the Japanese people”, the Chinese Premier had reportedly told the Japanese parliament in what is considered a major fence-mending speech. In fact, it was the first address to be made by a Chinese leader in the Japanese parliament in more than two decades.

These developments could to a great extent further defrost thawing Sino-Japanese relations which are on the mend in the wake of the forging of closer economic links between the major Asiatic states. Both countries are seeking to further penetrate each others markets and such economic interaction could accrue to the benefit of both.

This being the case, animosities which have divided the states from the World War II era are bound to subside, paving the way for a constructive relationship based mutual economic interest.

Thus has a paradigm shift set in in foreign policy thinking in the case of both China and Japan.

The urge to gain by economic globalisation is compelling Asia’s economic giants to bridge all differences which have divided them thus far leading to greater economic, cultural, information and people-to-people linkages.

It is this process which will not only help forge better Sino-Japanese relations but also help improve ties between India and China and India and Pakistan. Not to be left out will be Sino-Taiwanese relations, with better economic relations between the states taking precedence over political rivalries of the past.

It would not be too fanciful to prefigure a future where China and Taiwan would opt for closer political cooperation rather than prolong the Cold War state between them which has helped intensify regional tensions and been an invitation for greater US political involvement in East Asia.

Of late the US strategy has been to foster closer economic relations with India, with a view to counterbalancing China’s influence in the Asiatic region.

However, with India and China mending fences and Chinese leaders finding it necessary to interact closely with their counterparts in India, this US strategy of playing on regional rivalries may unravel.

Likewise, in the case of Indo-Pakistani relations. Recent terror incidents in India, for instance, have failed to deter the states from forging ahead with the task of normalising relations. Improving bilateral ties has taken precedence over contentious issues in the bilateral equation, such as Kashmir.

It is clear that economic interests are taking pride of place in all the foregoing bilateral linkages. Closer relations in a number of areas, brokered by keener economic ties, are likely to compel these states to relate among themselves and to the larger world on a consensual rather than a conflictual basis.

Coming back to Sino-Japanese relations, the current thaw in the bilateral equation would weaken the basis for strained bilateral relations of the past. Consequently, the US in particular would need to remould its policy towards East Asia, which has hitherto been premised on the Sino-Japanese face off.

All this does not mean that Asia would be swiftly free of the geopolitical tensions of the past. These would certainly linger but there would be a substantial paradigm shift in the foreign policy thinking on which Asia’s major powers relate to each other.