Decisive escalation, final conflict

Prabhakaran's speech 2006:

Dayan JAYATILLEKA

"Resist! Resist! Resist!"

- Fidel Castro

LACK OF COURAGE: Though the Great Heroes day commemoration this year was more grating than great, the Great Leader's speech was historic; perhaps the most important he has ever made.

Prabhakaran could not have a military parade, for the first time in many years, and his speech was released quite late in the day, considerably behind schedule. As DBS Jeyaraj explained online in Tamil Week, this was due to the fear that the Sri Lankan Air Force would attack the venue.

That Prabhakaran had to keep his head down, so to speak, marks the significant distinction between President Mahinda Rajapaksa's administration and those of all his predecessors.

Hitherto, the Sri Lankan people and Armed Forces had to watch and listen as Prabhakaran held his parade and made his speech even after he had struck at political leaders and service chiefs in the heart of Colombo.

That was while we could very well have shelled or strafed the venue, disrupting his Nuremburg-like events. And yet, despite suggestions to that effect, successive Sri Lankan Governments displayed an absence of political will to do so.

They did nothing to disturb Prabhakaran's peroration. While we have no evidence that the present administration had anything up its sleeve, what is significant is that for the first time, Prabhakaran feared so.

No great hero

The surreptitious nature of Prabhakaran's speech is not only an indicator of his lack of courage, but also proof that his 'liberated zone' is not quite as secure as Tiger supporters, Tamil and Sinhala, local and foreign, would have us believe.

Two examples would suffice to prove the point: Having landed on the shores of Cuba on December 2 with 80 men, and having only twelve survivors a few days later, Fidel Castro retreated to the Sierra Maestra mountains.

Within weeks, in January 1957, with only forty men under arms and while still under bombardment from Batista's air force, he gave a famous interview, replete with photographs, to Herbert Mathews of the New York Times.

One might have thought that after 30-35 years of struggle, and running a 'quasi-state' as his sympathisers tout it, Prabhakaran would have been able to grant an interview to a newspaper; even one of those flashy cheapies from Chennai. But he was unable to.

Then we have the example of Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah of the Hezbollah, who has appeared in public several times after the recent Lebanon War, behind bullet proof glass, and addressed mass audiences, despite an acknowledgement by Israel that he has been slated for ' targeted killing'.

On this great heroes day Prabhakaran has once again proved that he and the LTTE are not in the same league as Nasarallah and Hezbollah.

The significance

All that having been said, it is vital not to underestimate the historic importance of Prabhakaran's speech.

That significance was already heralded by a defiant remark of the colourful and loquacious TNA MP, Eelaventhan who said that this year's Budget debate was the last that he and his party would attend in Colombo, and the next would be in Trincomalee, capital of an independent Tamil eelam.

This cannot be dismissed, echoed as it was with more blood curdling sloganeering by his fellow MP, Gajendran.

Prabhakaran's speech is divisible into three parts or 'moves'. The first consists of Goebbelsian lies, namely the LTTE's repeated attempts at peace.

A long list of assassinated peacemakers from Amirthalingam and Yogeswaran through Rajiv Gandhi up to Neelan Tiruchelvam exposes that for the hypocritical humbug it is.

The second part of the oration is, at the least, debatable: a pseudo-sophisticated critique of the Sinhalese nation which could have come from the laptop of any pseudo-intellectual, but is disguised racism.

That which is utterly crucial in his speech is the third and final part. "we are not prepared to place our trust in the impossible and walk along the same old futile path.

The uncompromising stance of Sinhala chauvinism has left us with no other option but an independent state for the people of Tamil Eelam. We therefore ask the international community and the countries of the world that respect justice to recognise our freedom struggle.

At this historic time when the Tamils are recommencing their journey on the path of freedom, we seek the unwavering support and assistance of the world Tamil community.

We express our gratitude to the Tamil Nadu people and leaders for voicing their support and ask them to continue their efforts to help us in our freedom struggle.

We express our gratitude to the Tamil Diaspora, our displaced brethren living all around the world, for their contribution to our struggle and ask them to maintain their unwavering participation and support."

That is the operational aspect of the speech; its bottom line. This can be understood as two linked ideas.

The first clearly signals that he is satisfied with the accumulation of the minimum conditions for the launch of his final struggle and announces that the immediate - not just the final- goal of struggle is an independent Tamil Eelam. There are no longer any intermediate aims, goals, demands, and tactical way stations.

He is going for broke; the big one, the grand slam.

A reader of the Asian Tribune who had listened to Prabhakaran's speech in the all-important Tamil original, and not merely read the sanitised English language version as did the rest of us, points out that the pledge/threat was even more direct: 'The LTTE has decided to establish the government of the independent state of Tamil Eelam!'

The second and associated idea in the climactic segment of Prabhakaran's speech is that he is relying solely on the Tamil Diaspora and Tamil Nadu. In short it is a global and regional Pan-Tamil message, appeal and war cry.

State response: Five steps

In the light of Prabhakaran's speech, how should the state respond? In the first place this must be understood for what it is.

It is the announcement of the final decisive stage of the eelam war. It is also a return of history; the resumption of a very old historic and existential struggle in new form, and it is reaching its decisive stage.

It is the 'eternal recurrence' of a threat that has faced our people many times in history, and it's the curse or privilege (or both) of this generation to face it after many centuries.

Secondly it must be recognised for what it is not. It is not a terrorist cell, or group, or movement or network. And it is certainly not a terrorist network with a home base some thousands of miles away (as was al Qaeda).

It is a secessionist-terrorist army, on our soil, posing a direct, deep and existential threat to our state, society and people. A victory for Prabhakaran will darken our destiny and that of future generations, just as it will be a betrayal of past generations, those of our forefathers.

Let us leave aside the history of the ancient world. Modern history shows us how states respond when threatened directly by an enemy army, be the enemy a foreign state or axis of states as in World War two, a foreign terrorist one as in post 9/11 Afghanistan, or an intimately and incestuously domestic one as in the US Civil War and the recent Chechen conflict.

The only response is Total War, waged with intelligent leadership (the greatest possible strategic and tactical intelligence) and maximum force aimed to destroy the enemy as a military formation- subject however, to the laws of war, to humanitarian law (as Army chief Sarath Fonseka has acknowledged in a recent speech).

Thirdly, even the remotest sign of a July 83 type attack on innocent Tamils by Sinhala racists must be ruthlessly suppressed.

Fourthly, the Sri Lankan State must swiftly fan out and construct a global united front or fronts; differently nuanced alliances, conventional and unconventional, military and economic, ranging from the USA to Russia and China. (China's support is vital to counter any moves at UN Security Council level).

Fifthly, to facilitate and as part of this external relations effort, a generous reform package for regional autonomy must be speedily announced.

If elections cannot be held in the North-East, the Executive could appoint an interim/provisional council, one for the North headed by the EPDP and the other for the East led by the TMVP.

With proper financial resources these could implement developmental and civic action projects, strengthen intelligence inflow from the grassroots while legitimately raising local forces, militia, to fight as allies alongside the Sri Lankan Armed Forces.

Ultimate escalation

Having made this speech in November 2006 signalling the ultimate escalation, Prabhakaran cannot make it in November 2007. Making an existential choice, he has quite deliberately committed himself, burning both his boats and his bridges. There is no road back.

Extending a maximum of a year at its most intense pitch, a determining period in Lanka's long history, perhaps the most decisive of our lifetimes, begins now.

For Sri Lanka it is a war of survival. There is no time to lose. The time is now.