Challenges before President Rajapakse
by V.S. Sambandan
Mahinda Rajapakse, in his self-defined role of architect of a "new
Sri Lanka," has to balance several contradictions. These arise from the
polarised mandate and his political allies.
A polarised Sri Lankan electorate has spoken. On November 18, Prime
Minister Mahinda Rajapakse won the Presidency with a mandate that
simultaneously reiterates and challenges a number of stereotypes. Even
the Tamil "boycott" in the North-East, is a critical non-mandate of
sorts that the new President has to factor in as he commences charting
the roadmap for what he describes as a "new Sri Lanka."
First things first: the starting point for the winner is to interpret
his mandate. This verdict, almost a political photo-finish, is somewhat
tricky to interpret. It represents the best possible under the
circumstances. The multi-ethnic electorate has neither resoundingly
endorsed the call for entrenching a majoritarian state nor has it given
a resigned nod for peace at any cost.
Rajapakse's victory with the narrowest margin in the history of
elections for an Executive President makes it clear there is no
overwhelming support for majoritarianism of the variety advocated by the
President's allies, the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and the Jathika
Hela Urumaya (JHU).
The message from the North-Eastern Tamil "boycott," evidently on the
diktat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), is clear. From
the Tigers' point of view, the conflict is one best fought along clearly
demarcated lines of majority and minority nationalisms.
The third element of the mandate is the overwhelming endorsement for
Opposition leader Ranil Wickremesinghe in electoral divisions where the
minorities - Sri Lankan Tamils, Muslims, and Plantation Tamils - were in
large numbers.
Equally important is that the majority Sinhala community remains
near-equally divided between the unitarist Rajapakse and the federalist
Wickremesinghe. This is a critical marker for the new President.
A political leader with vast experience in the dynamics of mass-mobilisation,
Rajapakse is now in a setting appropriate for his transformation into a
statesman.
Central to his successful tenure at the helm of the Sri Lankan state
will be how effectively and painlessly he balances the strong calls by
his allies for entrenching a majoritarian state with the equally vocal
demand for power-sharing by the minorities.
At a glance, the mandate can be interpreted as a
politically-convenient consent for a strong Sinhala-nationalist line,
which includes an anti-West, particularly anti-Norway, rhetoric. A
statesman's perspective would factor in the 48.43 per cent opinion that
runs entirely to the contrary.
The direction the Sri Lankan State moves in will depend almost
entirely on how true the new President stays to his commitment given to
the nation at his inaugural. "From now on Mahinda Rajapakse as President
will not be a leader that belongs exclusively to any single party or
group. I will not discriminate on party, colour and racial or religious
grounds."
Central to Rajapakse's success in his self-defined role of architect
of a "new Sri Lanka" is how he balances the several contradictions that
arise from the polarised mandate and his political allies.
Needless to say, his poll-pact with the JVP and the JHU vastly
enabled him to dent pocketboroughs of Wickremesinghe's United National
Party (UNP).
The dynamics of ethnic reconciliation and the President's commitment
at his inaugural, however, necessitate a seamless recalibration that
balances his vision for Sri Lanka and the agenda of his political
allies. Among the several ways out could be a well-timed Parliamentary
poll.
This, though, could be an expensive exercise for a poll-weary nation
and, more importantly, a political risk for the ruling party given the
small lead secured in the Presidential election. The opening move for
Rajapakse would be to ensure the early commencement of the proposed
inclusive talks with "all those who have a stake in the solution of the
national question."
On several counts, Rajapakse has the necessary ingredients for his
"new Sri Lanka" already set out by the political leadership of the past
11 years - his predecessor Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga and
Wickremesinghe. For, despite political differences, Kumaratunga and
Wickremesinghe had made the Sinhala majority aware of the need for
political power-sharing.
The objections are largely from the extremes of Sinhala polity based
on the fear that federalism equals secession. The polarised electorate,
with the unitarists narrowly nudging out the federalists, is another
factor Rajapakse would consider during his proposed consensus talks.
More so given the need to present an acceptable Southern position
that will enable him to re-start talks with the Tigers. Another
challenge for Rajapakse is to redefine the existing conflict-resolution
parameters - the role of the facilitator, Norway, the ceasefire
agreement and its monitoring mechanism.
The new President's "appeal to India and other friendly Asian
neighbours as well as the international community," to help Sri Lanka
reach "an honourable peace," could be a sign of things to come.
However, the Rajapakse Presidency is still in its infancy and it is
too early for it to elaborate on so sensitive and emotional an issue.
Critical to his impending negotiations with the LTTE would be how
Rajapakse handles his electoral allies and foes as well as the tact with
which he crafts a `Southern consensus' that cannot be portrayed
internationally by the Tigers as one that "falls short of Tamil
aspirations."
The November 27 "Heroes Day" speech by the LTTE leader is one to be
watched for parameters to be set by the Tigers for their engagement with
Sri Lanka's new President. With regard to conflict resolution,
Rajapakse's mandate is one best described in his own phrase - "for an
honourable peace."
Silencing the guns of war, however, is meaningless unless bayonets
melt into ploughs. Hence, it is equally important for Rajapakse to
ensure that economic development flows to the under-developed regions
across the country. Massive development of the strife-torn districts of
the North-East, which lag behind by decades, is the crying need of the
hour. Outside the North-East, the poll result clearly indicates the
preference for Rajapakse in the under-developed regions and among
sections that have little say in economic dynamics.
The overwhelming endorsement of Rajapakse in rural pockets has more
to do with the basic realities of economic hardship than intangible
constructs such as the structure of a state - be it unitary or federal.
The election of Rajapakse to the highest political office also implies
the continuity of a left-of-centre political and economic thinking, but
tempered by the times.
It is such a well-calibrated interpretation of mandate that the new
President will have to take to the drawing board when he charts out his
project for a "new Sri Lanka."
Creating the Sri Lanka of President Rajapakse's aspirations
necessarily requires the discarding of several existing moulds: majority
apprehensions over political power-sharing, mutual distrust between the
ethnic groups, festering wounds of ethnic discord, skewed economic
development, and, above all, the bitter bipartisan politics of the
ruling Sri Lanka Freedom Party and the UNP.
The "new Sri Lanka" could be built on several positive island-wide
constructs: the mutually-felt need for honourable ethnic co-existence,
vast social similarities and, above all, the over-arching attribute of a
joie de vivre that is so essentially Sri Lankan.
Now is indeed the time to accentuate the similarities and submerge
differences among the Sri Lankan peoples. President Rajapakse has
certain distinct advantages compared to his predecessors. These include
the longest spell of peace between the State and rebel armies, an
evolving economy, and a mindset that is amenable to change.
He also faces the challenge of an entrenched rebel group, holding
territory and staking claim to a de facto state. In a nation that is
still undergoing a painful socio-economic and political churning
process, President Rajapakse made his decisive political ascent after
challenging foes across the political spectrum.
Now that he is vested with vast constitutional authority, backed by
the inherent qualities of a mass-leader, the Sri Lankan nation looks
forward to him making good on the twin promises he made at his
inaugural: ushering in an honourable peace, and emerging as an
inclusive, non-discriminatory leader of a new Sri Lanka.
The Hindu |