Sino-Indian ties :

Economics upstaging politics

by Lynn Ockersz

Finally, the iron laws of economics seem to be the deciding factor in the increasing thaw in Sino-Indian relations.

Although news of another round of talks between Chinese and Indian officials on the long-simmering border dispute between the countries grabbed newspaper headlines, it is little realised that the motive force for improvement in the Sino-Indian equation also came from stepped-up, concrete steps to increase border trade between the countries.

Thus, we had the news that plans were afoot to reopen part of the ancient Silk Route between India and China, to facilitate Sino-Indian trade and this economic factor would prove no less significant than inter-state diplomacy and negotiations in improving Sino-Indian relations.

The current talks between Indian National Security Advisor, M. K. Narayanan and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Dai Bingguo on the border dispute in Beijing are a follow-up to the discussions Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao had with Indian officials earlier this year, when he visited India, on what is called a 11-point road map to end the border imbroglio.

Apparently, some territorial concessions would be made by both states to facilitate a negotiated end to the festering dispute which erupted in war in 1962.

Figuring prominently in the dispute are claims by India to a rugged swath of territory in Tibet and Chinese claims over the Indian border state of Arunachal Pradesh, nestling in the chilly Himalayan climes.

However, the negotiations over the disputed border have developed in tandem with quieter efforts to increase border trade between the Asian giants and such stepped-up economic links could prove as effective as political talks to render Central Asia large enough to accommodate both China and India, which have hitherto been seen by some as being on course to a Titanic clash for regional supremacy.

With economic interdependence taking centre stage in international relations in the post Cold-War world, the likelihood is great that India and China would eventually bury the hatched over the border dispute in favour of strengthening mutually - beneficial economic links.

It is such considerations - for instance -which are keeping US-China relations largely unruffled despite considerable compulsions in both states to outrival each other in the political and military fields. Likewise, mutual economic dependence is likely to rival power considerations in Sino-Indian relations.

What is not going to be lost on India is the expectation that very soon China will be the world's number one exporter, upstaging both the US and Germany. What would carry equal weight with India are predictions that in around five years China's would be the fourth largest economy, coupled with a Chinese middle class which is expected to grow to 40 per cent of the population.

China, on the other hand, would take cognizance of India's vast population and its growing technological and scientific capability, not to speak of India's own growing middle class which represents a potential market for Chinese purse-easy, manufactures.

The launching, therefore, of a 15,000 feet high trading post in the border between India's Sikkim state and China's Tibet region could prove the gateway to a degree of mutual economic sustenance between China and India, reminiscent of the flourishing trade the Silk Route opened-up in times past, for the countries of the region.

Reports said that in the initial phases of the trading which would be launched in early October, China would trade products such as Silk, Yak tails and raw wool for items such as textiles, matches, shoes and canned food from the Indian side.

India's states bordering China are expected to reap the first benefits from these efforts to relaunch the Silk Route.

Although we are unlikely to witness a drastic scaling-down of the power aspirations of these regional giants - China and India - they are unlikely to miss out on mutually-beneficial economic opportunities which would have the effect of preventing them from getting on to a keenly-awaited,collision course. Economics would upstage politics.