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Big Tokyo earthquake could kill 13,000

TOKYO, Tuesday (Reuters) About 13,000 people could be killed, 800,000 homes destroyed and millions of citizens stranded if a major earthquake hit Tokyo directly, a Japanese newspaper said on Tuesday, citing a government panel report.

Under one scenario in which a 6.9 magnitude earthquake struck central Tokyo at 6 p.m. during the evening rush hour, some 13,000 people could be killed, with many of them trapped in burnt homes, the Asahi newspaper said.

In another scenario incorporating a "direct hit" on areas north of Tokyo Bay by an earthquake with a magnitude of 7.3, about 800,000 homes could be destroyed or burnt down, the Asahi said. Those areas are crowded with old wooden houses. Tokyo had more than 1.6 million wooden houses built before 1981, according to a 1997 metropolitan government report.

In those scenarios, about 6.5 million people would likely be stranded and unable to return home if such a powerful tremor hit Tokyo in the daytime, the panel was reported to have said.

The panel's report was due to be unveiled on Wednesday, the Asahi said. The panel is expected to study possible damage to subway and rail systems, skyscrapers and petrochemical complexes as well as the impact of a huge earthquake on the global economy, the Asahi said. Tokyo accounts for 17 percent of Japan's gross domestic product, meaning its output is bigger than the GDP of Australia.

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