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| Thursday, 9 December 2004 |
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Prabakaran's warning - text and context by V. Suryanarayan Anything the LTTE leader says has to be viewed against his uncompromising commitment to the establishment of a separate, independent state.
In his annual Heroes Day speech on November 27, 2004, synchronising with his 50th birthday, Velupillai Prabakaran, the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), warned the Sri Lankan Government that the Tigers would be compelled to launch the "freedom struggle" if peace talks were further delayed and the sufferings of the Tamils continued. Prabakaran called upon the Sri Lankan Government to resume peace talks without conditions, on the basis of the proposals for an Interim Self-Governing Authority (ISGA) proposed by the LTTE last year. Prabakaran added: "If the Government rejects our urgent appeal, adopts delaying tactics, perpetuating the sufferings of our people, we have no alternative other than to advance the freedom struggle of our nation." The highlights of Prabakaran's speech can be summed up as follows: the present political stalemate has led to a situation of political void- without war, without a stable peace, without the conditions of normality, without an interim or permanent solution to the ethnic conflict. If this political vacuum continued "indefinitely," the Tamil liberation struggle "would be seriously undermined." Three years have passed since the conclusion of the ceasefire agreements. The Tigers have been attempting to seek a negotiated settlement with Norway as facilitators, but six rounds of talks, in the LTTE supremo's assessment, turned out to be "futile and meaningless." What is more, Colombo undermined the status of the Tigers as "equal partners in the peace process" by excluding them from the International Donors' Conference held in Washington. It compelled the Tigers to temporarily suspend the peace process. The draft proposals submitted by the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government for an interim set-up were unacceptable to the Tigers because they did not provide "adequate administrative authority." The Tigers went ahead and submitted their own proposals for an ISGA on November 1, 2003. These proposals, Mr. Prabakaran claims, provide for a framework and embody "structures and mechanisms" that could address the "urgent existential problems" of the Tamils. Then came, in Prabakaran's analysis, a political crisis in the South - the destabilisation of the Ranil Wickremesinghe Government, the dissolution of Parliament, followed by parliamentary elections. The elections paved the way for the formation of a new Government - "an unholy alliance of incompatible parties articulating antagonistic and mutually contradictory views and policies" on the Tamil national question. On the other hand, in the northeastern Tamil homeland, the Tamil National Alliance won an unprecedented victory, thereby becoming the "political voice and the democratic force" representing "our liberation organisation." In the last part of his Heroes Day speech, Prabakaran has underlined the multi-dimensional crisis facing the Sri Lankan Government. The internal contradictions and the policy differences among the members of the ruling Alliance have become a "stumbling block to the resumption of peace negotiations." The "authentic political reality" of Southern Sri Lanka, he claims, is that President Chandrika Kumaratunga has aligned herself with political parties "drenched in anti-Tamil racism, militarism and Sinhala-Buddhist hegemonism." In the concluding part of his address, Prabakaran reminded his followers of the historical experience of earlier negotiations, of pacts and agreements that were "torn apart" and "abrogated." The LTTE leader added that the Tigers were not prepared to "walk the path of treachery and deception once again." He demanded that political parties in the South should explain their policies on the core demands of the Tamils concerning a homeland, nationality, and self-determination. He then fired his parting shot: there are borderlines to patience and expectations. The LTTE has now reached this borderline. If the Government of Sri Lanka continues to adopt "delaying tactics," the Tigers would have no option "other than to advance the freedom struggle for our nation." For Sri Lanka-watchers in India, a striking aspect of Prabakaran's speech was that he completely glossed over the serious contradictions that have developed within the LTTE during the last few months. The monolithic military apparatus of the LTTE was torn asunder when `Colonel' Karuna raised the banner of revolt. What is more, Karuna articulated the deeply felt frustrations and grievances of the Tamils in the east against the discriminatory policies of the Wanni leadership. The concept of the traditional homeland, consisting of the north and the east - an article of faith for the Tigers - has suffered a death blow. The foundations of Tamil nationalist ideology have been shaken. It is the tragedy of Sri Lanka that when Prabakaran launched a ruthless military drive to crush the revolt led by Karuna, the international community, including India, remained mute witness. Hardly anyone of consequence dared to ask the question: what is the meaning of the peace process when the LTTE launches a war on another section of the Tamils? The revolt led by Karuna has been defeated but the east will never be the same again. The tall claim of Prabakaran that the LTTE is the "sole representative of the Tamils" has now to be taken with a bag of salt. In the same way, V. Anandasangaree's open rebellion against pro-LTTE forces within the Tamil United Liberation Front is a harbinger of democratic stirrings in the north. The proxy of the Tigers - the Tamil National Alliance - won all the relevant seats except one in the parliamentary elections. It has to be kept in mind that this phenomenon takes place in all parts of the world where fascist forces are dominant. But what is clear is that the worm has started to turn, dissent against the tyranny of the LTTE has burst out, new openings and new resistance movements are bound to emerge within the Tamil community. According to Sri Lankan media reports, serious differences have cropped up between Prabakaran and Soosai, the leader of the Sea Tigers. While the Government of Sri Lanka and the Tigers agree that an interim administration should be put in place soon, the Government rightly maintains that the Interim Self Government should be in conformity with a final political solution. The Government also wants negotiations to be held simultaneously on the core issues relating to the final settlement. Prabakaran does not subscribe to this point of view. In his Heroe's Day speech, he made it clear that negotiations on a final solution could take place only after an interim administrative authority "is institutionalised and becomes functional." Equally important, Prabakaran has demanded that the ISGA be negotiated outside the existing Sri Lankan Constitution. I have pointed out, in previous articles published in The Hindu and Frontline, how the ISGA proposals go far beyond the federal model. In the LTTE proposals there is hardly any mention of the relations that should exist between the federal unit and the central government. The acceptance of the LTTE proposals would be tantamount to the establishment of a de facto Tamil Eelam. Insistence on the formation of an ISGA in the northeast before entering into negotiations for a final settlement is part of a clever and dangerous policy of the Tigers. The establishment of the ISGA will confer on the Tigers much-needed international legitimacy as the sole representative of Sri Lankan Tamils. The borders of the Tamil homeland will be clearly defined and they will receive legal sanction. Their international prestige will receive a boost, as the ISGA will have powers to negotiate and receive foreign aid. The immediate objective of the LTTE can be summed up as "one state, two nations." What is more, the ideologues of the LTTE are convinced that federations and even confederation as solutions to ethnic crises have not worked satisfactorily. The Vance-Quen Pact in Yugoslavia, which never got off the ground, is cited as a case in point. The next logical step, therefore, will be the establishment of a separate state. The Hindu , in a lucid recent editorial, has correctly pointed out that the Tigers have treated the peace process as a means to gain control of the northeast, an objective they failed to win militarily. Contrary to his expectations, participation in the peace process has not given Prabakaran the international stature and acclaim he craves for. It must be kept in mind that while the LTTE supremo has occasionally made noises about his readiness to explore a federal solution within a united Sri Lanka based on the principle of internal self-determination, he has simultaneously asked his followers to treat him as a "traitor" if he were to give up the liberation struggle. Prabakaran's warning in his Heroes Day speech has to be viewed in the backdrop of his passionate, uncompromising commitment to the establishment of a separate independent state of Tamil Eelam. A winter of discontent is ahead of Sri Lanka. (Dr. V. Suryanarayan is Professor for Maritime Studies and Research, University of Calicut.) - The Hindu |
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