Tuesday, 02 November 2004 |
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Some forward movement possible on Kashmir by Lynn Ockersz As Pakistani Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz began a tour of SAARC countries with the reported intention of impressing on them Pakistan's commitment to regional cooperation, Islamabad could be said to have been moving towards an unprecedentedly flexible position on the Kashmir question.
In what was described as a three-stage formula for resolving the Kashmir dispute, Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf was quoted as dropping Pakistan's long-held condition that a UN- supervised referendum be held in Kashmir to decide on the final status of the disputed state. This has been a major sticking-point between India and Pakistan with India holding out against the idea but Pakistan insisting on its implementation as part of a solution to the long-festering conflict. There is some substance in India's reportedly cool response that this issue of dropping the referendum needs to be taken up in bilateral talks rather than be voiced in public first, but there is no denying that the suggestion on dropping the referendum marks an advance in Pakistan's position on resolving the conflict. If it finally finds expression in formal Indo-Pakistani bilateral negotiations, there is no doubt that more space could be said to have been opened for forging ahead towards a resolution of the Kashmir dispute. As in most international disputes involving conflicting territorial claims, a final solution to the Kashmir question when it is worked out should satisfy the essential demands and sensitivities of all main parties to the dispute. No party should see itself as losing too much and compromising itself severely to another. In the case of India, its continued commitment to secularism and democratic principles would need to be respected in the final provisions of a Kashmir settlement. There has been a considerable prestige factor in the Kashmir dispute with neither India nor Pakistan willing to project itself as losing too much to the other in terms of mainly control over territory. Besides, however, there have been substantial ideological reasons for each party to have been seen as inflexible in their positions over Kashmir. For India, having Moslem-majority Kashmir within its Union would strengthen and sustain its secular-democratic image. That is, Kashmir would bolster its multi-ethnic, multi-religious and multi-linguistic credentials, thereby showing the 'Two Nation Theory" to be without foundation. On the other hand, Pakistan's abiding interest in Kashmir consists in the consideration that political control over the Moslem majority state would contribute towards strengthening the "Two-Nation Theory" on which it was founded. These ideological underpinnings alone prefigure the complex issues which may arise in the search for a permanent solution on Kashmir. However, the possible dropping of the referendum idea may pave the way for a form of shared governance between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. This, however, is a matter for the future. Meanwhile, some heart could be taken from the fact that SAARC is being put more firmly on track and that the principal states in SAARC, India and Pakistan, are talking. Although the outcome of the US presidential election may not impact substantially on this state of affairs in South Asia, the US-led "war on terror" could be expected to be stepped-up in this region if George Bush regains the presidency. He could be encouraged in this endeavour on the finding that "terror" is the American voters' number one concern. Since, Pakistan, along with India, has been cooperating with the US in its "war on terror", it would be compelled to crackdown even more heavily on Kashmiri militant groups, if Bush is returned to office. This in turn may have the effect of escalating the armed resistance in Kashmir but may compel Pakistan to work more closely with India in mapping out a mutually-acceptable Kashmir solution. |
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