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by Lucien Rajakarunanayake

Well, well it's all out in the air now. The Tamil Tigers are not happy with how the UNF government has gone about the peace process.

One thought that with all the concessions the UNF gave to the Tigers, which are too well know as not to bear repetition; and the turning of a blind eye to repeated violations of the Ceasefire Agreement (CFA), the Tigers would at least have been partly pleased. All this, and the constant frowning at criticism of the MoU or CFA was for confidence building. Yet, it appears there has been no confidence built.

The displeasure of the Tigers is stated by none other than the leader of its political wing S. P. Thamilchelvan, at talks in Norway with a high powered Norwegian delegation led by the Norwegian Foreign Minister Jan Peterson. Critical of the UNF Government's handling of the peace process, Thamilchelvan has said the Government failed to honour the clauses of the Ceasefire Agreement and did not stick to the consensus reached during the peace negotiations on a wide range of subjects.

Encapsulating history, he has said: "When one party comes to settle the ethnic issue, the other party opposes it". The situation today is different. All these years it was the opposition that obstructed solutions put forward by governments in power. However, to our knowledge, this Government has so far not come forward with any solution. It talks of major disagreements with the LTTE's ISGA proposal, while not yet identifying a single area of such disagreement.

It appears the Government is scared with what is more than a hot potato in its hands in the form of the ISGA, which may not be what it intended when it promised the LTTE an Interim Administration in North & East, before the December 2001 general election. It wants to drop it fast but does not know how, and keeps on blaming the political crisis in the South for its own failures.

Thamilchelvan has emphasized that what the Tamil people wanted was immediate humanitarian aid. "This aid cannot be postponed any further" he has said, adding that, "Only the guns are silent in the North and the East but the suffering of the people remain as during the past 20 years. Only the people in the South are enjoying the peace dividend."

Not exactly correct in that. It is true that humanitarian aid for the North & East is an urgent need. But to state that only the South has benefited from the peace dividend is going too far.

True the guns are silent, as they are in the North & East, and suicide bomb attacks and other acts of terrorism have not taken place, or put on hold. The people in the East do suffer oppression by the LTTE. As for the peace dividend, those in the South have reaped nothing in terms of economic benefits. Life keeps getting harder.

Talking of reaping the peace dividend Thamilchelvam was silent about the gains to the LTTE's coffers by way of its own "taxes" or extortion to put it bluntly, ransom money following abductions, other forms of protection money and levies imposed on goods going to the North, and the children it has added to its cadres.

However, to get back to the LTTE's disenchantment with how the UNF Government has so far handled the peace process, it becomes necessary to judge whether the UNF is in fact a government that is strong enough or weather it or its leader has the spine for the task. Kilinochchi - April 2002

It is important to recall here the assessment the LTTE and especially its leader Velupillai Prabhakaran had of the UNF Government led by Ranil Wickremesinghe, as stated in Prabhakaran's Press Conference held in April 2002, at Kilinochchi.

Here is now the TamilNet reported the LTTE leader:

"When asked if the LTTE would give up the armed struggle following a permanent solution, Mr. Pirapaharan said: "We will seriously consider renouncing our armed struggle if a solution acceptable to the people is worked out." However the LTTE leaders cautioned that the Wickremesinghe government was not stable and that it lacked sufficient leverage to solve the ethnic problem.

A proposed interim administration would permit the de-escalation of the conflict, while allowing the newly elected government leeway to strengthen its position, they said. "We do not think that Ranil Wickremesinghe is capable of addressing the core issues and offer us a permanent solution at this stage; because the executive powers of governance are vested with the President and his powers are limited to Parliament," Mr. Pirapaharan said.

"But we wish to insist that the Ranil's government is not politically stable or authoritative or powerful enough to take up the core demands of the Tamils and offer us a permanent solution," the LTTE leader stated. "But, it is because of that we are suggesting the formulation of an interim administration set up in which the LTTE can participate in the north east. In the meantime Ranil Wickremesinghe will have enough space to build up southern Sri Lanka economically," he said.

"As far as we are concerned we have faith in the present government and we will continue to work with [it] until a solution is reached," Mr. Balasingham said.

Mr. Pirapaharan said he did not think President Chandrika Kumaratunga could derail the peace process. "Even if she tries to scuttle the peace process it is up to Ranil Wickremesinghe to ensure that such difficulties do not arise and ensure the peace process succeeds."

Just four months after the UNF gained power in a shaky coalition, the LTTE leader was candid enough to state that "the Wickremesinghe government was not stable and that it lacked sufficient leverage to solve the ethnic problem". He added: "But we wish to insist that the Ranil's government is not politically stable or authoritative or powerful enough to take up the core demands of the Tamils and offer us a permanent solution."

There is no reason to believe that the LTTE has changed its views of the UNF government's strength in the past two years, having seen its performance in office. The possibility is that it is now more convinced that the Wickremesinghe government is wholly incapable of delivering on its promises to the LTTE. Another quotation from the LTTE is even more relevant in the context of current developments. This is it: "Mr. Pirapaharan said he did not think President Chandrika Kumaratunga could derail the peace process." Even if she tries to scuttle the peace process it is up to Ranil Wickremesinghe to ensure that such difficulties do not arise and ensure the peace process succeeds."

Well, well as much as the LTTE leader was certain that President Chandrika Kumaratunga could not derail the peace process, they must be even more convinced of Ranil Wickremesinghe's inability to proceed with it.

Prabhakaran and the LTTE gave the UNF a chance when he said: "But, it is because of that we are suggesting the formulation of an interim administration set up in which the LTTE can participate in the north east. In the meantime Ranil Wickremesinghe will have enough space to build up southern Sri Lanka economically."

They were giving Ranil and the UNF the opportunity to develop the South and stabilize itself so that negotiations could proceed with the LTTE on a permanent solution. But the LTTE cannot be blind to all the mess that the UNF has got the South into. Instead of strengthening its position in the South, the UNF has weakened its position to such an extent, that even its supporters are aghast at what is taking place.

As Prabhakaran judged very correctly in April 2002, the Ranil Wickremesinghe govt is a weak and wobbly one. If it tried to carry on serious negotiations with the LTTE, it certainly failed. In fact it was Thamilchelvam himself who said when the LTTE unilaterally suspended the talks, that the previous six rounds of talks were a mere joke.

That was despite all claims of major achievements, made by the Government's chief spokesperson, Prof. G. L. Peiris. His elasticity with the truth even made him say without the least hesitation that in the Oslo declaration the LTTE had accepted a federal solution. The professor did not say that what the Oslo declaration in fact said was that the LTTE would "explore the possibility of finding a Federal solution". Exploring the possibility of a federal solution and accepting one, is as different as oranges and apples. But the professor is too learned for all that.

The reality is that the LTTE did get much of what it wanted in the short-term, due to the Government's Nelsonian blind eye to all its violations of the CFA and other activities. It now believes it is time to go back to its original analysis of Ranil Wickremesinghe and the UNF government that it is weak and unable to offer a solution that would satisfy it on the ethnic crisis.

There certainly is a political crisis on. It is a crisis of confidence between the LTTE in the UNF and its leader. It is much more significant than the crisis in the South. The signal from Oslo, by Thamilchelvam, is that the LTTE cannot have faith in the UNF and its leader. What next, remains the question of the day?

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