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| Friday, 23 January 2004 |
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Bumper harvests, droughts and the prosperity bubble By Afreeha Jawad
That the widely acclaimed belief of 'higher the rise, greater the fall' and 'too much of anything is too bad', is evidenced through nature's operation, makes worthwhile probing. The twin occurrences of abundant rainfall and bumper harvests herald future lean times of drought and low yields. Regrettably, in the Sri Lankan context prosperity invites complacency. The euphoria that surrounds prosperity - a sort of imagined cushioned state of mental bliss denies both foresight and hindsight as well, where we live the moment assuming a permanency of the blessed status quo. Much to one's surprise or dismay a situational alternative ushers in 'wringing hands' from whoever that is installed into policy decision - making positions - a far cry from other countries where consistent monitoring and planning is prime agenda. Delving into philosophical realms was most unavoidable as this writer interacted with economist and geographer Dr. M.U.A. Tennakoon recently at the Colombo Continental. Tennakoon explaining all about weather patterns and drought noted how the severe droughts in 1935, 36, 37, again in 55, 56, 57 followed by 75 and 76 were all preceded by plentiful rains. "Now, after 25 years, this time I expect at least two years of serious drought", he said, hastening to add, "and what preparations have we made?" Supportive of his argument is last year's lashing rains if one may recall, in January and February - generally a rain-free period with the North-East monsoon itself starting very late, September or early October. Equipped with indepth knowledge of Sri Lanka's weather patterns for as long as 30 years - particularly in the Dry Zone, Tennakoon's expressions and forecasts cannot be taken lightly nor dismissed that easily. Consolidating his research were the many pictures he had brought along with him - testifying to desertification of Sri Lanka's Dry Zone. From the thick luscious greenery and jungle that was, this entire area is now on its way to reduced shrub and dry plain the verdant green no more was Tennakoon's heart wrenching point. Not surprising anyway with an ancestry rooted in this part of the country and uphill as well. The two and a half hour chat with Tennakoon also was not without its inspirational moments as he churned out solidity of a people's past, now extinct. Given to understand the ancient Raja Rata Sinhalese as a people of much character who led cherished lives arising out of ingenuity, this writer noted how they maximised indigenous knowledge into daily living to reach such state. Their constant communication with the environment and its bio-diversity in the absence of 'high profile scientific acumen' made excellent contribution to planned and sustained living. The animal and insect behaviour patterns were closely observed and directed towards agricultural activity. July the month of nesting for crows was one such. If crow offspring were found in the nest it was a sure indication - a future dry kanna (season). Contrastingly, the nesting of weaver birds - generally in late September - started in early August pushed Tanamalwila farmers into early sowing in anticipation of rain any moment. In that year the North/East monsoon started early September - the generally trend being Sept/Oct. In Malle, Australia while farmers keep track of the Malle fowl's nesting period. Wheat cultivation here follows early nesting. Late nesting induces reduced cultivation. All through the Dry Zones - from Hambantota and Wellawaya to Puttalam and Vavuniya, chena cultivators clear land only when beehives deposit on ant hills - an indicator of lean rain periods ahead. Less water favoured crops are chosen such as Kurakkan and Sorgum - the latter incidentally referred to as nut cherry by Dutch traveller Pybus. Water-loving crops are farmer choice when beehives rest in tree hollows shetered from the North-East winds. The sudden and rare appearance of the Thala Mala - almost once in 25 years is precursor to a long drought. However, eraminiya blossoming is tied to heavy rain but predicts drought the following year. Traditional knowledge widely known as TK common to indigenous communities throughout the world when condemned by an American at an international conference invited the wrath and scorn of Tennakoon who shot back. "American history is far too short - only 200 years and you will never know the worth of TK" - which drove the American into silence. Apart from indigenous knowledge, lessons from history as regards food production and marketing are also exemplary. All produce those days were not rushed to the capital city. Paddy harvests saw regional and district deposits, a transport minimizing system because of its bulky nature. Today, Polonnaruwa paddy comes to Colombo and so does Ambilipitiya plantains. After the glut in Colombo that same commodity goes back to the village and sold at a higher price along with crop loss on the way. However, in the past there was no capital surplus as it was distributed right along. For instance lets examine the word Ranbawa - Ran not necessarily money - rice itself was monies' equivalent and bawa or Baanava is to unload. Hence Ranbawa got its name after its wide reputation as a rice unloading area. The next, positioning at Kalanchi (Meaning small store) followed its arrival at Medawachchiya (or central store). Such distributary mechanism - carefully planned out prevented all the chaos we see today in the agricultural sphere. It has been this writer's experience in far away Kurunegala - to be precise 8 miles from town where Nelum Ala, Ambul Dodan, Beli and Divul are in bulk production - not even a single fruit is available. Come to Colombo - one bee line into the market you'll find all that and more. If at all they are found out there the price tag will turn more sour than the Sour Orange (Ambul Dodan) itself. In addition the current drought at its inaugural stage has already escalated food prices - resulting from short supply. Right now, around 6 million are directly affected in the Dry Zone out of crop loss. More than half the Maha season crop is gone - not to mention the highland crops. Food imports are believed to mitigate rising prices. Coconut prices will certainly spiral as its production areas fall mainly within the Dry Zone. Family-level stores or individual units of the old 'Bissa' are also recommended to tide over or at least lessen the effects of food shortage. Australia's wheat granaries hold down product and regulate market supply whereby price equilibrium is maintained. The market does not see the last grain, which arithmetic is not in Sri Lanka. All this apart, Tennakoon also focused on drought accentuation. Haphazard desilting of tanks - also a trouble - brewing exercise, damages the tanks' hard pan stable at the base - supposedly a hindrance to water retention. The Kurunegala tank's dredging exercise, according to Tennakoon, needs vigilance and much supervision to avoid disaster stemming out of ignorance. Destroyed mangroves and ridges result in free flow of silt and this tank is believed to have around 8 feet silt. He also warns of the impending dangers arising out of Kurunegala's intended large-scale development. All Dry Zone tanks with reservation around upper catchment mangroves are natural silt filters. They helped suspend the silt in waterflow. So silt preservation islandwide is threatened out of large scale 'development' - industrial, housing high level urbanization and so on. At this point of my writing it brings to mind the theory of 'opportunity cost' in economics where one opportunity is foregone to achieve whatever is best in another. Likewise, development itself is 'opportunity cost' where the constant harnessing of the environment jeopardises man's existence as well. One may then ask quite poignantly as well', 'Whither man bereft of planet earth?' |
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