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Regional peace and SAARC economic fortunes

by Lynn Ockersz

While there is understandable enthusiasm among sections of the South Asian region's ruling political elites over the conclusion of a framework South Asia Free Trade Agreement at the current SAARC Heads of State Summit in Islamabad.

The Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers - not surprisingly - focused on the need for the defusion of regional inter-state tensions and on the fostering of trust among states, as the building blocks of regional solidarity, in their inaugural addresses to the long-awaited forum.

Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (C) meets with Maldives President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom (R), Bhutanese Prime Minister Jigmi Thinley (2-R), Sri Lankan President Chandrika Kumaratunga (3-R), Bangaldeshi Prime Minister Khaleda Zia (4-L), Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee (3-L), Nepalese Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa (2-L) and Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali (L) during a collective call of leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations during the first day of the SAARC summit in Islamabad, 04 January 2004. The 12th SAARC summit opened with Jamali delivering the inaugural speech, professing optimism that the 18-year old forum could be reinvigorated in its first summit in two years. AFP 

"We must make the bold transition from mistrust to trust, from discord to concord and from tension to peace. Any joint endeavour needs mutual trust and confidence", Indian Premier Atal Beharee Vajpayee stressed in his address. Likewise, Pakistani Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali emphasized that, "Greater economic integration is inexplicably linked to the creation of the requisite political climate of peace and stability".

Often referred to by the Western media in particular as "regional rivals", these key political figures from India and Pakistan should know better.

It is the simmering animosities between India and Pakistan which, principally, grounded the SAARC process for some time, until, not surprisingly, a dramatic thaw in these strained relations, epitomised by a current ceasefire along the Line of Control in Kashmir, set the stage for the launching of the postponed 12th summit.

The detente process, thus far, between India and Pakistan, has been energised by mutual goodwill gestures by the states, raising hopes of Indo-Pakistani relations having reached an epochal juncture.

If not for this marked relaxation of bilateral tensions regional euphoria over SAFTA would not be possible. In other words, regional economic solidarity would not be possible without friction free, stable and friendly relations among the SAARC Seven, with amity between India and Pakistan proving pivotal in this respect.

The hope of SAARC backers is likely to be that the current state of relations between India and Pakistan would not only continue to hold but be steadily upgraded to enable the fostering of a measure of substantial regional amity.

While the upgrading of Indo-Pakistani ties depends crucially on a defusion of tensions in Kashmir, much would depend also on whether the Indian centre could galvanize opinion among anti-state rebel groups in the state for a negotiated political settlement of the Kashmir dispute.

Likewise, ideally, the Pakistani central government should be in a position to mould domestic opinion in the direction of peace with India and on resolving the Kashmir conflict equably with its neighbour.

Consequently, a softening of what are seen as hardline positions on the Kashmir dispute, is necessary on both sides of the Indo-Pakistani border. Herein consists the challenge for both states on the normalization of ties front.

Progress towards negotiating an equitable solution to the Kashmir dispute would also depend on the degree to which the power elites on both sides of the border refrain from resorting to opportunistic politics, in the days ahead, in the building of their respective support bases.

While both India and Pakistan are at present cooperating with the US in its "war against global terror" and are, to that extent, immune to a degree from external divisive control, only time would tell whether the ruling elites of both countries could rise above, short-term political considerations.

Could the Pakistani centre, for instance, turn a deaf ear, for long, to the hardline religious sentiment growing out of the US - led offensive against "global terror"? To the extent to which it does so, Indo-Pakistan talks on Kashmir would be facilitated.

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