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| Saturday, 3 January 2004 |
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S.Asia summit gives India, Pakistan chance to talk ISLAMABAD, Friday (Reuters) Less than two years after India and Pakistan teetered on the edge of war, Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee heads this weekend for a South Asian summit in Islamabad hosted by his rival, Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf. The summit offers a chance to strengthen a fragile peace process between the nuclear-armed rivals but a breakthrough on their Kashmir dispute is unlikely, diplomats and analysts say. The fact that Vajpayee is visiting Pakistan for the seven-nation South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit is a sign of progress. SAARC rules forbid discussion of bilateral issues, but on the sidelines Vajpayee and Musharraf could announce further steps to normalise relations and rebuild ties severed when the nuclear-armed rivals came perilously close to war in 2002. At best, diplomats say, there is a chance the two sides might quietly agree to start a lower-level dialogue this year between foreign ministry bureaucrats. "The fact that the summit is happening is in itself a major event, and an indication that both sides are willing to live with each other," said Samina Ahmed of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think tank. Ties slowly improved last year after Vajpayee announced he wanted to make a final bid for peace in his lifetime. But the peace process seemed to be limping to a halt until Musharraf's government announced a ceasefire along the front lines in Kashmir in November. Musharraf followed that up two weeks ago by offering to put aside Pakistan's 50-year insistence on holding a U.N.-backed referendum in the disputed Himalayan region, telling Reuters he was prepared to meet India half way. On Thursday a Pakistani commercial airliner flew the 440 km (275 miles) from the eastern city of Lahore to New Delhi, restoring air links cut in 2002. Pakistan has deployed 10,000 armed police and soldiers in the normally sleepy capital for the summit. It is an unprecedented security operation which follows two attempts to kill Musharraf in the last month that have been blamed on Islamic militants. While SAARC could give the two sides an opportunity to build on that reconciliation process, analysts warn that the peace process remains very fragile, and could easily fall apart under the weight of overblown expectations and deeply divergent views. Sandeep Waslekar of the Bombay-based International Centre for Peace Initiatives says the rivals should take the opportunity offered by SAARC to agree to start a structured dialogue. "Otherwise the confidence-building and sense of euphoria will last a month or two and after that it will be back to square one," he said. Musharraf got a timely boost at home on Thursday when he comfortably won a confidence vote in parliament and four provincial assemblies that will keep him in power until 2007. But is Pakistan's powerful military establishment really interested in peace with India? And is India willing to make any concessions over Kashmir given that it holds the lion's share of the divided state? Many commentators are sceptical, saying both sides seem to be playing to the gallery with their talk of peace without really being ready to put aside decades of mutual mistrust. "We're somewhat suspicious of all this posturing," said Aasim Sajjad Akhtar of the People's Rights Movement, a Pakistani lobby group. "Our inclination is to believe it is being pushed by the U.S. to a significant extent." "That leaves it open to debate whether the initiative will hold out and prove in the long-term truly meaningful." India says infiltration by Pakistani militants into Kashmir has all but stopped since the ceasefire took hold. But it will remain wary at least until the spring, when snow melts in the Himalayan mountain passes and infiltration usually picks up. ####### Vajpayee has no plan to meet Pak leaders-India NEW DELHI, Friday (Reuters) India said Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee has not planned one-on-one meetings with Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf or Prime Minister Zafarullah Khan Jamali on the sidelines of a regional summit in Islamabad next week. New Delhi has ruled out any substantial bilateral talks with Islamabad at the January 4-6 South Asian summit, but diplomats and analysts say there is a chance of Vajpayee holding informal one-on-one meetings with Jamali and Musharraf. "There will be a number of occasions where they'll be meeting in official meetings. They'll be meeting socially," Indian External Affairs Minister Yashwant Sinha told reporters before leaving for Islamabad for the summit. "Apart from that there is no other meeting planned," he said when asked if Vajpayee would meet Jamali or Musharraf individually on the sidelines and not as part of a group of regional leaders. |
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