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Political Round up 

What comes after the Paris talks?

by Ranga Jayasuriya

As the LTTE's constitutional team returns to the Wanni, next few weeks will be decisive for the stalled peace process.

Thamilselvam who edged out London based Anton Balasingham to be in the forefront of the LTTE peace delegation was reported to have expressed optimism that the Government will respond to his proposals favourably. While die-hard Karuna, the Tigers' Eastern military chief warned of "serious consequences", should the Government refuse the LTTE proposals.

The Tigers have not disclosed the counter proposals, though it is possible that they will call for more powers in the proposed provisional Administrative Council in which the LTTE has already been offered a majority.

The question however is whether these new powers could be provided within the framework of the existing constitution. When the LTTE first came out with its demand for an Interim Administrative Council for the North-East, Balasingham insisted on "an innovative and radically new mechanism with adequate politico-administrative powers and a majority of the LTTE participation". Soon after the suspension of negotiations in April, the LTTE theoretician demanded an interim mechanism which goes beyond the framework of the existing constitution, a demand which a government in a shaky cohabitation with a powerful Executive President may find impossible to fulfil, even it wishes to do so.

Speaking to the media in Paris where the LTTE constitutional affairs team comprising LTTE members and sections of expatriate Tamil intelligentsia gathered to work out counter proposals, Thamilselvam declined to say whether the Tigers were making a fresh offer. He however said his team will come out with its own proposals in response to the Government's proposals submitted to the LTTE in mid July.

Balasingham who led the Tigers since the first round of peace talks was absent in the Paris negotiations.

Whether it is due to his poor health or any other reason, it is ironical that Balasingham, the movement's "theoretician" was absent in discussions deciding the nature of the Interim Administration.

Unless something has gone wrong, Balasingham would never have missed a meeting with an eminent panel of constitutional affairs experts comprising Prof. Sornarajah (Professor of Law, Singapore National University), Prof. Ramaswamy (Professor of Political Science, National University of Malaysia), Dr. Manuelpillai Paul Dominic (University of Sydney) and Shiva Pasupathi PC (former Attorney General of Sri Lanka).

It is not clear whether Balasingham's poor health prevented him from attending the meeting (he underwent two kidney transplants last year), or whether Prabhakaran wanted him out basically because he is a moderate in LTTE ranks.

But even in Bala's absence, it is possible to argue that the experts, the Tigers brought to Paris to discuss their counter proposals must be aware of the constitutional restrains laid before the Sri Lankan Government in its bid to share power with the proposed Interim Administrative Council.

Whether Balasingham will retire, or be sidelined from future negotiations is not yet clear. But given the silence he maintained during the past few weeks, while Thamilselvam was leading the LTTE delegation, it seems LTTE has decided to replace ailing Balasingham with 36 - years-old former LTTE Jaffna military commander who later switched to its political office.

This does not mean that Prabhakaran has let his ailing "theoretician" down. But even the Tigers - who of course genuinely honour those who are committed to their cause - must be feeling that further dependence on Balasingham is detrimental to the peace process. So with a possible new face leading the Tiger delegation in the future peace talks, Tigers seem to moving to a hardline. The first one year of talks was more about building confidence between the two parties, which both Balasingham and Prof. Peiris did perhaps beyond the initial expectations.

But now talks seems to be moving to a bargaining position. The Tigers will be coming out with maximum possible demands and how the Government will cope with them will decide the future of the peace talks.

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