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| Saturday, 28 June 2003 |
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The impact of two decades conflict by Ariya Rubasinghe
Dividends 1. The war killed 50,000 - 60,000 people including 14487 of service personnel. 2. The war uprooted 900,000 people or almost half of the 2 million inhabitants of the North and East. 3. The war displaced internally 867277 persons (227343 families) 4. The war damaged 279546 houses in North and East. 5. The war inherited 50,000 Land Mines in Jaffna and 150,000 in Vanni. 6. The war has taken more than 100,000 refugees in Tamil Nadu State of India. Economic cost of the war 1. The war has reduced annual economic growth by 2 to 3 points a year for the past two decades. 2. The war caused a slump in the national economy of the North and East from 15% to 4% over the last 20 years period. 3. The war increased the defence expenditure from 1.3 of GDP in 1980 to 6% in 2000/2001. The share of the North East in natural economy has slumped from estimated 15% to 10% over twenty period. Therefore, the levels of consumption, poverty and human deprivation in North East are considered to be equal or worse than those if poorest districts of other parts of the country. Major Losses (1982-2001) Rs. Billion 1. Estimated loss due to attacks on Katunayake Airport Mullaithiu, Paranthan, Kilinochchi, Punarin, Elephant Pass Camps 41.67 2. Property damages by attacks outside North and East (JOC Headquarters, Central Bank, Galadari, Kolonnawa, Torrington Square 4.5 3. Loss in foreign investments 75.0 4. Loss in tourism earnings 100.0 Direct Expenditure (1982 to 2001) Rs. Billion 1. Direct expenditure on war 396.93 2. Expenditure on reconstruction and rehabilitation of war afflicted properties 370.8 3. Expenditure on displaced persons 106.0 4. Expenditure on compensation 378.0 5. Expenditure in public order and safety 84.86 Estimated losses due to the war in 1998 In 1998 GDP was Rs. 912.80 Billion Rs. 1. Loss of output in North East 17.00 Billion 2. Difference in output of North East had grown at natural economic rate 44.44 Billion 3. Value added to the contribution by the professionals who were migrated 15.00 Billion 4. Loss to the tourism sector 16.47 Billion 5. Less foreign investment 18.75 Billion 6. Government budgetary expenditure on war output if invested 7.40 Billion Total 1036.90 Billion Actual 912.80 Billion Loss 124.10 Billion The human, socio-political and moral cost of the war 1. Statistics on economic losses are impersonal and cannot possibly uncover the human suffering and misery of the war. 2. 40,000 disabled soldiers often experience a lack of recognition, respect and decline in social status. 3. Widows and female headed households are ever suffering. 4. People displaced by the conflict from all communities (Tamil, Muslims and Sinhalese) deprived of the essential security, basic comforts and privacy. 5. Children are among those most severely affected. Those include baby combatants, orphans and those traumatized by brutal violence. Around 2000 of those displaced are under 14. 6. Surveys indicate a decline in nutritional standards and increase in infant morality. Neither the Government or the LTTE have been able to provide adequate basic needs such as health care, education, water and sanitation and food supply. 7. Social structure too have been destroyed. A pervasive sense of insecurity has become the norm of the entire population. For the 130,000 households who have family members fighting in the war, fear is ever present. The political cost of the war The war weakens transparency and accountability in society. This applies to the political systems, financial dealings and human rights. The island or part of it have been in more or less continuous state of emergency since 1984. Under that the Government has used its power to proscribe political parties, have rallies and censor the media. Many political leaders and prominent party members have been assassinated, parliamentarians are construed by array of problems. The political systems outside the North and East has demonstrated a high degree of resilience. In the North and East the population has been almost entirely deprived of these democratic rights. Detentions, arrests, torturing were common under the emergency regulations and prevention of terrorism act. The war weakens the transparency and accountability and enhance opportunities for corruption. The conditions created by the war, the availability of arms and large numbers of deserters means that there are enhanced opportunities for violence throughout the society. Life in "border villages" The constant fear, insecurity and hardship endured by people who live in the boundaries of the Northern and Eastern provinces were another important element of the human cost of the war. Recent survey reveals that there are 50,000 displaced and war affected families in the districts of Puttalam, Anuradhapura, Polonnaruwa, Ampara and Moneragala. Their stories of tragic transformation that has occurred in the lives of men, women and children indicate the complexity of human problems, where lot of affects has to be made in respect of relief, rehabilitation and reconciliation. The economy without the war The Central Bank estimates that the war has reduced annual economy growth by 3% - 4% a year for the past two decades. Poverty Of the 80,000 households who are below the poverty line with monthly consumption below Rs. 4920, at least two thirds would have moved above the poverty line if not the war. Unemployment Unemployment would have been brought down from the present high of 10.5% to a level in the region of 3% if not the war. Tourism Without the war Sri Lanka would have received over 1 Million tourists per year and earned an additional 2.5 Billion, US$ during the 20 year period, creating approximately 10,000 more jobs. Health and education 50% or more would have been spent on promoting health and education foundations. Transport, power and telecommunication Expenditure could have increased by 50% or more, if not the war. The peace process Repeated attempts over the past twenty years to find solutions to the conflict have failed. It is a renewed search of peace, present Government and LTTE had entered into a ceasefire agreement brokered by Norway in February 2002. The positive response on the part of households and communities to the peace process has demonstrated the resilience of the Sri Lankan population and its determination to rebuild the shattered society and economy. (The writer is the Consultant Relief, Rehabilitation and Reconciliation and former Director of Information and Competent Authority/Censor for Military Related News) |
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Produced by Lake House |
For the past two decades the country's prospects for sustainable
development have been severely undermined. While the military battles have
largely been confined to the North and East every part of the country
bears its scars of conflict. Thousands of people from all ethnic and
religious groups have suffered directly by acts of terrorism and facing
serious human rights violation with the heaviest burden borne by
vulnerable groups specially women, children and poor communities. The
prolonged struggle has interrupted production activities caused large
scale destruction of social and economic infrastructure deterred private
sector investment.
