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The frustrating nature of a negotiated settlement to the ethnic conflict and the high handed activities of the LTTE and their boycott of the Tokyo summit have led many to lose hope and worry about an uncertain future.

The recent suggestions and allegations by the Norwegian facilitators have fueled a growing concern about the importance of their impartiality towards the process. The suggestion that Sri Lanka recognize the LTTE Sea Tigers as a legitimate navy within the country's waters is astounding. While in the process of negotiating for some form of governance that's less than nationhood, they are proposing that the LTTE be given the rights of a legitimate ruling body of a nation. The expectation that the country seriously consider this form of flawed logic is unlikely and they may be waiting for a counter proposal from the Government.

This issue of a legitimate LTTE navy also hits at the very heart of the reasons behind many of the parties who have come in support of the negotiations. Most of the other participating members like the Government of Sri Lanka and India are going through the peace process under the legitimate assumption that the LTTE does not take this time of cessation in hostilities to rearm and become stronger to go back to war at a later date. While trust is not a concept considered early in negotiations, a participating group may use or rely on other means to be comfortable about both groups moving in the same direction. Close scrutiny of the waters in the North and East is a very important factor that allows all the parties except the LTTE, to come to some comfort level that they are not heading for a major losing battle with a stronger LTTE in the future. Already there is evidence that the LTTE is recruiting and getting stronger and the Sri Lankan Army is stepping down its readiness. Recent conflicts at sea are a clear sign that the LTTE may be attempting to procure new arms for their new recruits.

It is prudent for Norway to consider that if the Sri Lanka peace process turns into a major debacle fueled by a stronger LTTE, their world peace brokering days may be over. At the moment the rest of the world is freezing the assets of the LTTE and are curbing their arms procurement activities. Letting them have their own navy would give them the freedom to smuggle contraband for money and bring in arms into the country. This fact would not compel the nation to continue to sit at the negotiating table.

But Norway plays an important role that is essential if the process is to continue. It is the only country in the international community that the LTTE believes that may have some of their interests at heart. This is a comfort factor for the LTTE and is key for the negotiations to go on and is very much similar to the fact that Sri Lanka and India want to keep close tabs on the waters of the North and East. In any negotiations it is critical that one group does not feel completely cornered. After 9/11, the world has worked hard to ostracize groups like the LTTE and if they are to sincerely change their course and negotiate, they must not feel completely alone. The two major groups at the opposite ends of the table may not completely trust each other but the factors that keep both parties at the table must stay in place.

Marking time?

If the LTTE is not sincere about dropping the demand for a separate state and shared rule, then their goal would be to frustrate the international community to the point of hopelessness but still remain impressionably non-violent and impress upon the world, its dedication to a negotiated settlement. Although time may appear to be on their side, they must be watchful about the international community moving from propagating peace in Sri Lanka to helping the country retain its sovereignty and territorial integrity in spite of the LTTE. It is a fairly thick line now but if the general international consensus moves to the conclusion that Sri Lanka will never attain peace as long as the LTTE remains a powerful force, then the momentum may shift from negotiations to keeping the Tigers in check to eventually achieve peace.

The Tokyo conference was a success despite the absence of the LTTE. We already hear rumblings of an international safety net. This would most probably be part of the agreement that legitimizes the involvement of an international group to restore the signed agreement if either side decides not to adhere to it in the future. If the LTTE is sincere about giving up the call for a separate state, then this should be a source of comfort in case the Southern majority or its opportunistic leadership decides to abolish the system that was put in place as part of the settlement. But this also means that if they go back to violence or annex the North and East of the country, they will face not only the Sri Lankan Army but possibly an international force as well.

Violence to politics...

The LTTE, who have been the dominant militant group in the North and East, are a questionable political force. If they legitimately want to give up violence and fear culture, their ability to influence the future of the people and the area of the country they claim to represent will be severely diminished. Their power has been based on the ability to carry out any violent task that they deem necessary to keep them in control. But once peace is settled upon and their suicide cadres disbanded, one of the more experienced and established political parties may out-manoeuvre the LTTE out of power. If they feel that in the arena of peace, their days are numbered, they will certainly take their time to improve their chances in a functioning democracy. If a solution is agreed upon and put in place, it certainly won't and should not be a system where the leader of the LTTE becomes the Governor or Chief Minister for life. We certainly cannot settle for a geo-political rift across our nation to avoid an ethnic and national divide.

Eventually the LTTE will have to settle for democracy and it's quite possible that the group and its leader may go the way of Winston Churchill. So the LTTE may only be trying to solidify an uncertain future. It's possible that these peace talks may as my brother refers to them, be just trade talks that may be used to get much needed resources to change the identity of the LTTE and its mission. They may want control of the rehabilitation and reconstruction fund for political gains. As we all know, building houses, roads and schools for the rural and poor people of our nation has its merits and also gives you political mileage. Being in the forefront and in control of such activities gives you lasting political visibility and helps to change people's perceptions. Their claim that the ministries and departments that will control the fund are inefficient and bureaucratic is true and must be taken seriously. An efficient mechanism for aid utilization must be implemented.

But giving them total control of such a mechanism does not instill confidence that the resources won't be channeled elsewhere either.

The mechanism must ensure that none of the funds are used for BMWs and SUVs or RPGs and Suicide Jackets.

One way to establish the LTTE as a political force in the North and East is to be the sole representative of the region. The recent assassinations of political figures not affiliated to the LTTE is interesting and timely.

Eliminating any possible political rivals of the future may help the group quell any apprehension it may have about a political future.

It could also be a more ominous sign of what the political arena of the future North and East may become. Although it is some times not unlike the Southern political arena, we still cannot condone such actions. If the LTTE are just tying up loose ends while they are in this wait and see mode, it does not do well for their image to keep eliminating possible rivals under the watchful eye of the international community. But if there is to be any kind of non-LTTE representation from the North and East in any administrative body or aid management group, the list grows thin by the day.

As we await the next saga in the peace process to unfold, we can only wish that real progress is at hand. We have had a quarter century of war in our country and another quarter century of it could be the final nail in our coffin.

Hope?

The rest of the world will surge ahead leaving behind a few groups of people in a few places in our world still fighting each other and their demons of mistrust and hatred. It is incredibly sad if Sri Lanka, this beautiful country of ours, ends up there too. The LTTE must realize that if this country plunges into violence again, the people of the North and East would be the hardest hit. You cannot continue to indefinitely sacrifice the present to reach for an abstract idea of the future that we believe will bring us salvation, specially, with a process that leads to so much destruction.

Ultimately, the process becomes our past, present and future. We live in a world today that is plagued by a myriad of problems and possible disasters. We do not have to create our own. Recent floods in the South have left many in desperation. With the changing weather patterns we could be hit by a cyclone in the North or East. New diseases threaten our shores. These are the real battles, the battle against famine, disease and anything else nature might throw at us.

Our country stands upon the edge of a knife.
Stray but a little and we will live in strife.
Yet peace remains as we come together for life.
And hope for all our lives, your life and my life.

Milinda Cumaranatunge

www.crescat.com

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