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by Talia Jayasekera

The OPA recently conducted a panel discussion with several eminent personalities in the country participating. The topic was the `Peace Process - Problems, Prospects and Perspectives', with speakers Dayan Jayatilleke and Dr. Kumar Rupasinghe debating the current status of the peace process.

Speaker Dayan Jayatilleke compared the country's recent flood disaster to the warning signs that are coming with the suspension of the peace talks.

"The island was struck by floods a few weeks ago. Natural disasters are something that cannot be avoided but surely you would have noticed that if our Weather Bureau had spotted the storm early enough perhaps the destruction could have been avoided.

"But it did not get through loud and clear. There were no flood warnings which were given the necessary prominence in the media. Society was not prepared for the floods so they came as something of a surprise. Nature's campaign of shock and awe. The response was somewhat chaotic. We still do not have an adequate mechanism of responses to natural disasters and a structural committee was set up after the floods hit, leaving behind death and destruction. I fear we are going to have a repetition, on a far larger scale, in the realm of politics and war", said Jayatilleke.

"I am not an astrologer but I see a strong build up. Of course Political Science is not the exact kind of science as Meteorology but in my perception there is a huge storm brewing, coming closer and closer to us.

"We are living, at this present moment, in a kind of parenthesis. I fear that we are in a transition to war", Jayatilleke stated emphatically. "It is not a war that any of us wish for, however, it is a war that will once again be initiated and imposed on us by Vellupillai Prabhakaran, as it has been on four previous occasions".

"What is appalling is that our leadership, our intellectual elite, our professionals and all those involved in the peace process have adopted, for a variety of reasons, an `ostrich' policy! They either do not have what it takes to spot the storm warning, which means they probably should not even hold the positions they do, or worse still they do not have the guts to spell out the writing on the wall and that is a gross dereliction of morals and ethics ", he said.

"Now why do I say we are in transition to war? The signs are very clear! Prabhakaran choose to use the absence of the LTTE from the meeting in Washington, D.C to exit, temporarily it said, from the peace negotiations.

There can be no ongoing process if the LTTE is absent from the talks. On that basis, I invite you to ask yourselves how Prabhakaran is likely to respond to the Tokyo meeting, which will proceed, in all probability, without his participation. I say this because the United States of America, quite rightly, having been invited by the Sri Lankan Government to the Tokyo talks, will not take Prabhakaran's non-participation as a veto. I am a strong critic of American foreign policy but they have to be taken seriously. I do not think that when Richard Armitage pencils in June 9/10 in his diary, he expects to cancel simply because Prabhakaran does not plan to show up. So Tokyo will go ahead with or without Prabhakaran", said Jayatilleke.

"Now the man who suspended the LTTE's participation in the peace process on the basis of being left out of Washington, may be somewhat irked by the fact that he cannot veto the Tokyo talks. If he is intelligent enough not to vent his displeasure at the officials from America, Japan, Norway or the sixty other countries that will be present, I'm afraid that leaves only one possibility as a target. Prabhakaran is the kind of man who does not like to look back and if he says `I don't want to go to Tokyo', what he really expects is that nobody else will go there too. Because if Tokyo takes place without him then he looks bad in the eyes of his people and his army", he said.

"Now why wouldn't he go to Tokyo? It is strange but those who really matter in these negotiations do not want to consider the possibility that the likelihood is that Prabhakaran wont be in Tokyo because the decision-makers think that Prabhakaran is an extension of themselves.

" They think that he couldn't possibly turn down an offer of 3 million dollars in funds. These governing elites just want a piece of the peace action. But that is not where Prabhakaran stands. So nobody really thinks he will call their bluff! Even anti-LTTE people, obviously blinded by racism, simply believe that he is bargaining and upping the ante or that he wants more money.

"How could he say no to an interim administration? Is he going to say no to shaking the hands of popular foreign dignitaries or a photo opportunity with Richard Armitage, which most members of the Sri Lankan Government would die for! Well, the bad news is that the answer is yes and he is serious when he says he is not going to Tokyo! There is absolutely nothing that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe can offer him", Jayatilleke emphasized.

"Prabhakaran has finally decided that it is time to head for the exit ramp and it was fairly predictable because he has done it before. He did it in 1987 under the Indo-Lanka accord, where President Jayewardene set up an Interim Council and gave seven out of ten seats to the LTTE including the Chairperson. But Prabhakaran, then aged 33, walked out and declared war. Then in 1990, as CNN reporter Anita Pratap pointed out, that President Premadasa was willing to hand over the North-East virtually on a platter.

"In response to Pratap's question, Prabhakaran stated that he did not want Tamil Eelam on a platter from anyone!".

"I fear that Prime Minister Wickremesinghe may be at the butt end of an old charge of the LTTE. This is a charge that Balasingham levelled against President Premadasa. The charge was that President Premadasa was trying to catch the LTTE in a `peace trap'! This meant that President Premadasa was trying to remove the Sri Lankan state as an enemy, it was not going to behave or be configured as an enemy to the LTTE. And this was the peace trap", he said.

"Now we have been offered an interesting alternative. Either we swallow the cyanide capsule, that is the Interim Administration, or be shot. Personally I would rather take my chances at being shot. I say that the Interim Administration is the cyanide capsule not because there is anything wrong with the administration per se but this not that kind of Interim administration. Balasingham and Thamilchelvan, at his press conference in Killinochchi, made it very clear that the Interim Administration must be outside the Sri Lankan constitution.

" What is a constitution? It is the legal form of the State and its related legal institutions. Therefore when we say an Interim Administration outside the parameters of the constitution, we are talking about a power structure outside the state, that is outside the country. Looking at it from a Political Science point of view, when you take a power structure outside of the State and you add to it a parallel standing Army and Navy, that is a separate country! What is really fundamental here is not Interim Administration but it is the Interim Administration as and would be a superstructure upon a parallel standing Army and Navy.

"I don't think we can do better than to recall the theories of Max Weber that the State is the institution that enjoys the sole monopoly of legitimate force. But when you have a separate standing Army and Navy, this means you have abandoned your monopoly. Adding to this an Interim Administration, outside the constitution, simply means you are talking about another country".

"I do not think Prabhakaran even really wants that. I think that in the next couple of years he is going to take a look at the situation and he's not going to like it. In Balasingham's letter to the Prime Minister, he stated that the proposals were not up to Prabhakaran's expectations. I do not know if any of the proposals will ever come up to the expectations of Prabhakaran or the Supreme Court".

"Prabhakaran is not stupid unlike most of us. He is committed to his cause and takes it very seriously. He is not going to Tokyo just because foreign diplomats like Christina Rocca, Akashi, Jon Peterson ask him to because he knows that same person could issue an ultimatum on him in the future. This is exactly what Donald Rumsfield did when he visited Baghdad in 1980. He shook hands with Saddam but twenty years later it was he who was pushing the buttons for the bombs to drop over Iraq", Jayatilleke concluded.

"This is an opportune moment for some deep reflection. We are in a deep crisis and we live in a chaotic world. The chaos and the crisis is such that whatever is done affects others. We are sometimes unaware of the actions we take and the consequences of those actions. This is of course the `Chaos Theory'", said Dr Kumar Rupasinghe, Chairman of Foundation for Co-existence.

"How will this affect the peace process in Sri Lanka? The peace process in Sri Lanka is a question of astute political manipulation. This is what conflict recognition is all about.

"Whether we can achieve the outcomes that we want and whether the leadership of this country has and will have the courage and the acute political management which can actually create a transition from war to peace". "If you look at the several attempts and failures, it is like a Greek myth.

"We have witnessed this for the last twenty-five years . Every President and Prime Minister has attempted to push the rock up the mountain to find a solution but each time the rock has fallen. The next Prime Minister then has to pick up the rock and push it up the same mountain", he said.

"What does this mean in this country after so many years? If we look at the facts, since the 1980's there has been over 110 violent conflicts throughout the world out of which 75 have been terminated by 1999. Only 21 of these were terminated through peace agreements! If you look at the statistics only 20% of peace agreements have actually succeeded. In most cases, majority has been through military interventions. What we know from an examination of peace agreements is that there are some criteria for success.

One is that both parties must be willing to negotiate in good faith, this is a primary prerequisite for peace negotiations. Secondly the key actors must be included in the process and by this I mean not just the legal definition of the two parties but the inclusion of the stakeholders who have ownership in this process. Every successful negotiation has had that quality of inclusivity. Thirdly, the negotiations must address the central issues of the dispute. As we now see that suddenly the core issues are coming upfront, those must be addressed or at least given recognition by both parties. Fourthly, force must not be used to reach these objectives. Fifthly, negotiations must be committed to a sustainable process", said Rupasinghe.

"If we look at lessons from the past, what experiences have we had? First is the politics of duplicity by both sides who are engaged in double agendas and subterfuges.

Bradman Weerakoon, as Secretary to President Premadasa, made the point that during that particular period Premadasa engaged in the politics of duplicity. Secondly the lack of mediators who have the power to actually impose a solution. Failure to keep promises is another aspect. Before each election, every potential President or Prime Minister has promised to end the war and had discreet overtures to the LTTE and made promises regarding power sharing that were genuine about interim administrations etc.

However each Government has failed to deliver on that particular promise. Why? The answer is very simply! Most Presidents and Prime Ministers lack the two-thirds majority. And this particular iron constitution of Jayewardene's has created a situation where, for good or bad, it cannot be changed. That is what today, I think, the current Prime Minister is grappling with, like all the others, on how one can create a consensus if one is to deliver the Interim Administration or a power-sharing agreement that can satisfy the concerned parties". "The LTTE too has made many mistakes with their campaign of terror and assassination particularly with the killing of Prime Minister Rajive Gandhi. This has cost them enormously especially in terms of the goodwill that they enjoyed from India and particularly in South Asia.

"The second mistake, which they are currently correcting, is their attitudes towards the Muslims in the North-East. They have stated that it was a mistake and where a significant amount of land, that was taken over by the LTTE, is now being given back to the Muslims. There is a process of reconciliation at village level where committees have been formed, by both the LTTE and the Muslims in Batticaloa and Ampara, to discuss issues", he said.

"Now if we take the Ranil Wickremesinghe - LTTE negotiations, it is my view that it is the most courageous and far-reaching of all efforts at trying to seek a solution. I say this because if we look at the negotiations, it emphasized, primarily, confidence building and trust building as a prerequisite to a discussion. It recognised, in the ceasefire agreement, that both parties are equal and that the ceasefire agreement recognises the disparity in the balance of power.

Whether we may like it or not the fact remains that it is the disparity in the balance of power on which the foundation of the ceasefire agreement has been based. It is the mere physical fact that the LTTE has a standing army which controls territories and that can challenge and sometimes win over the Sri Lankan armed forces. It also was a fact that the Government, pushed almost near bankruptcy, may have also decided that it was important to concede the North-East, if they are to have capitalist development in the country. There was, I think, a subconscious decision that they had to make a critical choice".

"Whilst it is not a defeated army, it neither a victorious army. In fact it is a paradox because if it was a victorious army, it would have captured the entirety of the Jaffna peninsula. It was stopped! I think this is precisely where the problem is created of how to continue with the balance of power in Jaffna. Almost all the problems we are facing comes because of a doctrine, virtually from 1995, where every inch of soil of this country must be protected.

If we take the Jayewardene - Premadasa leadership, from 1977 to 1984, it had a uncontested military doctrine which was leave Jaffna alone. Let the LTTE run it as a municipality. Why? Because it was their view that the cost would be enormous, for the country and its people, to take Jaffna, not that it wasn't a possibility. And this is what precisely has happened now. Anybody who goes to Jaffna will know what that cost has been. It has been enormous with over 800,000 refugees and the large damage to infrastructure".

"The other most important element in the architecture is the international community, which acts as a custodian of the peace process. The Government has succeeded in creating a strategic umbrella which shares the burden of the consequences with this community. This is quite an interesting and important mechanism. No other country has this burden-sharing mechanism. I would contest that is one of the most unique aspects of the Sri Lankan peace process. Not only is the international community providing a burden-sharing umbrella but it also gives illusions of a security net".

"I think that the suspension of talks is a wake-up call and I hope that will lead to a mid-course correction. We need this because it is very clear that there have been some problems with the design of the process. If the foundation is solid then the process would be successful. What I am suggesting is that there is room for a mid-course correction.

"Primarily then it means that we have to involve the President. This is a significant because if you have an Executive President with one mandate and a Prime Minister with another mandate, then both have to be involved at one point or another in the process. Secondly we need to look at the communication problems.

"We are told at every peace conference that everything is going well and at the end of each there has been a major breakthrough. Now we have a very sceptical public who are wondering what has happened. Particularly in the situation where the peace process has been suspended and they want to know how it happened. I think that the communication crisis is very important. There is also no attempt or effort to communicate to the people. There is a view that what trickles down to the people is enough.

"People are not stupid and this is the leverage that the Opposition, JVP and others have to take that space. I think that this is a tragedy and the communication strategy means that groups have to be consulted.

"What has happened to all our intellectuals? We are going all over the world looking at federalism while our institutions here have done more than enough research on federalism. None of our institutions, either in Colombo or Peradeniya, have been used but occasionally if a foreign expert comes here, he is glorified. We are getting more and more foreigners to tell us about our own history and problems. Therefore it is very important to engage with the critical mass of community, professionals and academics of this country", said Rupasinghe.

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