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Looking beyond one year of ceasefire by Jehan Perera One year of ceasefire has transformed the face of the country. The war that had seemingly taken on a life of its own is no more. The pitched battles that saw a thousand men perish in a single day has ended. The security barriers and watchful personnel manning them are much reduced in numbers. True, the promised economic boom and opening up of commercial enterprises has yet to come. Sri Lanka is still in the phase of negative peace in which the absence of war is more marked than the full enjoyment of the fruits of peace. But there is a spirit of optimism in the air. One of the most hopeful signs is the rebuilding that is going on in Jaffna. Not any big government or LTTE led development projects with foreign assistance. Of that there is little or no evidence at present, which has led to frustration on the part of the people who are eagerly awaiting the peace dividend. But in the meantime repairs to homes are being undertaken by the people themselves. A family I visited in Jaffna was rebuilding their home spending nearly a half million rupees out of their own hard earned savings and contributions from family members abroad. This meant that they were reasonably sure that the war would not break out again and destroy their house and the repairs they were making to it. The risks taken so far cannot be underestimated. With the expansion of the LTTE into Government-controlled territory in the North-East in terms of the ceasefire agreement, the possibility of clashes has increased. But when the Government lifted the security barriers in February 2002 after signing the ceasefire agreement on the 22nd of that month,barely two months after taking over the reins of power, it was delivering on one of its election campaign promises. It removed a major inconvenience to the daily life of people that had caused hours of traffic jams and lengthy detours. One criticism of the peace process is that it is highly top-down without much participation from the broad ranks of government, let alone direct civil society input into it. But there is also little gainsaying this has speeded up the peace process. If the people themselves had been asked, however, they might have said that the removal of the security barriers was premature, given the shakiness of the ceasefire and the past track record of the LTTE. But the barriers came down nonetheless, including the ones in front of the Prime Minister's official residence. By taking this risk for peace, the government gave notice of its trust in the peace process and its commitment to it. Next came the lifting of the ban on the LTTE in September despite strong opposition to it from most sections of the population. And thereafter the invitation to the LTTE to sit with the Government as a partner at the Oslo meeting with international donors. Again there were protests from the opposition on the ground that the LTTE was being unduly legitimised and strengthened. But there was no going back on the part of the Government. In taking these risks for peace, the Government has been seeking to fulfil its election pledge to end the war through political means. It is far ahead of the people in doing so. This is a quality of leadership that the country has not seen before. The Government has taken the risk and made its decisions, letting the people see for themselves that most of their fears remain unfounded. The lifting of the security barriers and the ban on the LTTE have had no adverse consequences on the country as of yet. Opposition attitude The attitude towards the ongoing peace process in Sri Lanka taken by the opposition parties, most notably the PA and JVP that until December 2001 formed the government, is in line with the general sentiment among governments worldwide to impose their solutions upon their opponents. The former government's position was premised upon the inequality of the two parties, with the government being a sovereign state and the LTTE being an internationally banned terrorist organisation. Former government ministers talked down to the LTTE rather than at them and with them. But it is well known that in the past the LTTE consistently rejected this negotiating attitude of the former PA Government. Even today, senior members of the opposition repeatedly criticise the government for not bargaining hard enough with the LTTE. However, those who tried in the past to bargain hard with the LTTE failed. Therefore an implication of upholding the opposition position is to return to war, which hardly any Sri Lankan will want. The failure of the former government to impose a solution upon the LTTE, whether through its military or through hard bargaining at the negotiating table, may seem from a Sinhalese nationalist point of view to be a catastrophe. On the other hand, to the extent that the LTTE will represent the interests of the Tamil people at the negotiating table, an outcome more favourable to justice is possible. For the first time since Sri Lanka obtained independence in 1948 there will be an opportunity for a negotiated political solution to the ethnic conflict in which the interests of all the communities are met, rather than the interests of only the majority community. But this would require that the LTTE should also renounce its own self interest in monopolising power and put the interests of the Tamil people foremost at the negotiating table. The present peace process in Sri Lanka is based upon the learning of previous efforts to resolve the conflict through a combination of military and political strategies. But they all failed as the Sri Lankan State proved too weak to be able to perform highly on either strategy and on the two in combination. Similarly the LTTE proved unable to secure a comprehensive military victory despite its ability to eliminate individual army camps and weaken the country's economy. In today's peace process the principle of negotiations between opponents takes the primary and only place. They have also to find principled ways to deal with their differences. Among the breakthroughs in the peace process has been the agreement to explore a framework of federal governance for the country. But federalism is not the only breakthrough in the course of the year long peace process. Earlier breakthroughs were the signing of the Ceasefire Agreement in February coupled with the swift and equally unexpected removal of security barriers in Colombo, and the joint government-LTTE participation in the Oslo aid donor meeting in November last year. Few political analysts anticipated events of this nature either. Breakthroughs The Government leaders who have been in the forefront of the peace process have explained these dramatic changes by the term paradigm shift. The rationale for the paradigm shift is that the old way of seeing the situation was not leading to conflict resolution but to conflict escalation. Indeed, by the time of the general election of December 2001 the country was close to economic collapse. Many commercial establishments were being shut down. Even big corporate leaders began to publicly warn that their companies would collapse unless there was a change. It was in this desperate context that the paradigm shift occurred and the Government decided to deal with the LTTE in a hitherto unprecedented manner. The Government recognised the reality that the military option was leading nowhere but to stalemate at best. It also recognised the reality that the LTTE was in physical control of vast swathes of the North and East, and would not simply go away. Therefore the LTTE had to be accepted as a solidly entrenched reality and dealt with on that basis. Once the Government made the decision to consider the LTTE as a partner in the peace process, rather than as an enemy, the nature of its negotiations with the LTTE registered a fundamental change. Previously the unstated agenda behind the negotiations was to somehow weaken the LTTE at the negotiating table. The previous negotiations were premised on the belief that politics was a continuation of war by other means. As a result those negotiations were conducted in a spirit of rivalry and mistrust, with each side trying to bargain hard with the other and extract the most it could without considering the interests of the other. However, with the paradigm shift taking place, the nature of the negotiation process appears to have changed as well. Instead of engaging in hard bargaining and trying to outwit each other, the Government and LTTE seem to be extremely sensitive to each other's interests at the negotiating table. One of the LTTE's main interests has been to be accepted as a legitimate actor and not as a terrorist one. The Government acknowledged this by lifting its ban on the LTTE and by referring to it as a partner and taking it to the Oslo donor meeting on that basis. On the other hand, the LTTE has been prepared to publicly settle for federalism, which is much less than a separate state. It could have demanded a confederation, which is like a half-way house to separation. Many analysts had expected such an LTTE stand at the peace talks. But the LTTE did not make this demand perhaps realising that it was something the Government could not grant. Due to the intervention of trusted international facilitators they may also have become aware that a confederation was not a viable solution in the modern world. Next challenge So far there have been five milestones that have been passed in this journey to peace: the signing of the ceasefire agreement, the lifting of the ban on the LTTE, the face-to-face talks that commenced in Thailand, the establishment of a Government-LTTE partnership with regard to three sub-committees to deal with North-Eastern affairs; and now, the announcement at the conclusion of the talks held in Oslo that the Government and LTTE had agreed on a federal framework within a united country. This last is a major breakthrough. Although federal frameworks of governance have a range of options, they are also bounded by definite limits. With the LTTE agreeing to a federal model, they have accepted a reasonable and concrete alternative to a separate state. But now another great challenge awaits the Government. It could be the sixth milestone or it could be a millstone that finally sinks the peace process. To create a new constitution that could accommodate a federal model, the Government needs the cooperation of the opposition. Obtaining this cooperation would require a paradigm shift in the nature of Sri Lankan politics. It would require the ruling party to see the Parliamentary opposition as a partner in building a new country, rather than seeing them as a rival for power and the spoils of office. The Government needs to be more generous in sharing the credit for the peace process with the opposition led by President Chandrika Kumaratunga. This needs to be done not only in words but also in deeds. At the Oslo meeting Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe acknowledged the contribution of President Chandrika Kumaratunga to starting the Norwegian-facilitated peace process. But at Oslo he also stood there alone, while the President stayed at home. Could she not have shared the same podium with the Prime Minister? And if this was not given sufficient thought for the Oslo meeting, could it not be thought of for the more important Tokyo meeting of International donors in mid 2003? It must be borne in mind that one important purpose of the Oslo and Tokyo meetings would be to demonstrate to the International community that the Sri Lankan leadership is united in the peace effort. The challenge of uniting the political opposition with the Government in the forging of a united front regarding the peace process, and to design a new constitution, is not one that is beyond Ranil Wickremesinghe. Both the 1972 Republican Constitution and the 1978 Presidential constitutions were unilateral efforts by the ruling party in which the support of the Opposition was not obtained. The challenge for Ranil Wickremesinghe is to ensure that the peace constitution of 2003 is a truly bipartisan and National endeavour. Sharing credit with political rivals in a true sense, as opposed to mere words, is not the practice of ordinary politicians. Evolution Much credit for the continuing success of the peace process needs to go to Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe. As Leader of the Opposition, Ranil Wickremesinghe experienced defeat as no other opposition leader had done, with the party he led losing some eleven successive local, provincial and national level elections. But even during the period of his worst defeats, perceptive observers would have noticed a change that he had brought to national politics. As the Leader of the Opposition, he would not help the government of a rival party to take its programme forward. In this respect he showed himself no different from the others. He did not give support to the PA government constitutional reform exercise by which it proposed to devolve a greater measure of power to the regions as the solution to the ethnic conflict. His party MPs even burnt copies of the draft constitution in the Parliament chamber. But they did not take the battle to the streets as previous opposition leaders had done when facing a government that was trying to compromise with Tamil separatism. The other new feature that Ranil Wickremesinghe brought to national politics was his commitment to the political platform he espoused. When he said that he would negotiate a ceasefire and an interim administration with the LTTE, he stuck to this platform although defeat after defeat followed him. His political opponents fully exploited his words to say that he would divide the country by these measures. But Ranil Wickremesinghe did not change his stance. He demonstrated the patience that his uncle, the late President J.R. Jayewardene had once demonstrated in waiting some 40 years in the wings as a subordinate to lesser leaders, before becoming the supreme leader of his party and the country. As the first year of ceasefire is celebrated Sri Lanka has a real prospect of realising its full potential, a potential that existed at the time of its independence in 1948. The country then stood only second to Japan in the whole of Asia. But it failed to capitalise on its promise. The key to success in any endeavour is a spirit of cooperation, partnership and sharing. Having changed one paradigm so well, the Government led by Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe now needs to change another. It needs to generate a paradigm shift in the nature of Sri Lankan politics in which the ruling party and the opposition see each other as partners in building a new country, instead of seeing each other only as rivals for power and the spoils of office. (The writer is the Media Director of the National Peace Council).
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