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From George Chakko, Vienna

Lingering challenges from modern weaponry

The Conference of State Parties (COSP) of The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) convened here to discuss an urgent 'ratification action plan' to help get the treaty enter into force. The meeting ended with the unanimous adoption of a Final Declaration that foresees new promotional instruments like commissioning a Trust Fund to accelerate ratifications for an early entry-into-force (e- i - f ). Sri Lanka voiced its appeal and an urgent need for its neighbours India and Pakistan and the U.S. to ratify the treaty.

"Failure to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban treaty will be a failure in our struggle against proliferation. The stabilising effect of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, extended in 1995, would be undermined. Disarmament would suffer". This was a warning and prediction given jointly by three powerful European Heads of Governments - President Chirac of France, PM Blair of U.K and Chancellor Schroeder of Germany during the last phase of the 1999 US Senate vote of rejection of the treaty. The third COSP held in Vienna confirmed that prediction.

The smile and shine of and on the treaty has practically vanished, as the first signatory, Superpower U.S,. has turned 180o and chose not to send a delegate to the third COSP, much to the chagrin of its allies in Europe, Japan and the world at large. The Bush Govt has also openly pronounced that it may want to break the moratorium to test a new generation of nuclear weapons, although it says no decision has been taken yet.

But seasoned observers here believe that he will come out openly with his new testing plan once he is re-elected. President Putin has clearly warned that should the U.S test, Russia will be forced to do the same in order to keep the strategic balance. This will have the dangerous chain reaction that the Chinese will test as well, followed by India and Pakistan who would happily want to test too. Already there are rumours in India that two top scientific organisations have asked the Government to give the go ahead for 3 further nuclear tests, in spite of India's proclaimed moratorium.

At the concluding press briefing, however, CTBTO chief, Dr. Wolfgang Hoffmann was optimistic that with 168 State signatories and 104 ratifications, including 32 of the 44 States whose ratifications are necessary for the treaty's e-i-f, a new momentum has been created and believes more countries like Indonesia, Congo and Vietnam would ratify soon. CTBT's current ratification record is unique, considering other UN treaties and conventions that entered into force with far less signatures and ratifications.

The real hitch built into the treaty at the insistence of Britain and China is the Article XIV with an Annex II listing 44 States having either nuclear power reactors or nuclear research reactors, compulsorily to sign and ratify for the treaty's e-i-f. Had it not been made compulsory for India, the treaty might have entered into force by now. India's stay-out out of security and moral concerns turned the table for the treaty's future course, with attendant Republican Senate's opposition, now made much worse with Bush govt.'s position to possibly re-test, the September 11 event, and the classified Nuclear Posture Review that has been leaked reflecting a Cold War language.

Currently the 12 hold outs are - India, Pakistan (self-declared weapon powers) and North Korea [all 3 not signed and ratified], China, Israel and the U.S. (2 declared weapon powers and one undeclared de facto weapon power), Colombia, DR Congo, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran and Vietnam [all nine who have signed but not ratified]. The singular danger the situation portends, is a possible return to Cold War, plunging the entire humanity in deeper anguish. Cold War with its human wipe-out fears was agonising enough and extremely thorny to somehow get out of.

The more nuclear explosions and the legitimacy conferred on Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) for one's own security through its so-called deterrence value, especially after the event of Sept.11, the more the chances of the technology getting into the hands of evil individuals, who wouldn't mind killing even millions. For $1500 million (IMF estimate) underworld black money technology for terror can be bought. Not naming the U.S, the Russian delegate (Berednikov) expressed his country's "serious concern with the plans of developing new types of nuclear warheads, all the more that they are accompanied by a decision to cut the timeframe needed to get ready for conducting nuclear tests".

A US ratification in fact will have a 3-prong causal chain effect. In one it will immediately force China to ratify as China has been championing CTBT's cause strongly. A Chinese ratification will at Chinese and Russian pressure enforce N.Korean signature and ratification. At the other end a US ratification will no more delay Israel's ratification which in turn will rope in both the Iranian and Egyptian ratification. At the third end a US ratification will allow and want US to bring heavy pressure on India and India cannot prolong further its signature and ratification as India was the originator of the Test Ban mooted in 1954 by Nehru, and fought for it for over four long decades till the last moment in Geneva before backing out. Indian signature will be followed by Pakistan's as Pakistan has officially announced it will once India ratifies.

That closes the loop. Should the opposite be the case the United States would not only aggravate and mobilise world opinion against it, but also lose the one-time historic chance of world leadership it can and now potentially has. The ball lies in President Bush's hands. That the COSP III did not sign an appeal signed by all member States to President Bush outlining the global dangers that a continued delay of US ratification or new tests would entail is certainly disappointing.

Sri Lankan position

It is from this backdrop that the Sri Lankan position was stated at the meet. Ambassador D.L Mendis speaking on behalf of Lankan Foreign Minister Tyronne Fernando, said that in important multilateral issues like this, a symbiotic relationship between the USA and the UN is essential for the effective ratification and implementation of the treaty, quoting his FM, "UN needs the USA and the USA needs the UN". He pointed out discerningly that the era of an Euro-centric order lasting a 100 years in the European continent as established through diplomacy by the then Austrian Ambassador Metternich and British Foreign Secretary Lord Castlereagh in the early 19th century is long past over, and no new legitimate order with UN reforms for today's world is in sight. On the contrary, he warned, "the existing order may be plunged into chaos by nuclear testing or nuclear attack by a terrorist group".

Thus, it is very imperative that CTBT is ratified to avoid such calamity and prevent nuclear non-proliferation. Turning to Sri Lanka's neighbours India and Pakistan he said there is a dire need to initiate an effective strategy by the CTBTO Secretariat (PTS) and the friendly countries to promote ratification by both. But disarmament has a long way to go he believed and quoted the Chinese proverb, "A journey of thousand miles starts with first steps". CTBT to him is the first step in the direction of world peace.

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