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Monday, 7 January 2013

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Market continues upward trend

Weekly market review

The market continued its upward trend witnessed in the final trading week of 2012 with the ASPI closing up 140.58 points (or 2.51%) to close the week at 5747.71 points. The S&P SL 20 index gained 1.72% (or 52.72 points) closing the week at 3121.71 points, while the MPI ceased to exist from January 1, 2013.

In terms of individual counters, Commercial Bank was the highest contributor to the week’s total turnover value accounting for 38.75% with a value of LKR 1.44bn. JKH’s contribution amounted to 17.95% of total turnover value with a value of LKR 667.75mn while HNB accounted for 12.32% of total market value contributing LKR 458.27mn.

Total turnover value for the four-day week amounted to LKR 3.72bn compared to LKR 1.27bn in the previous 3 day week. The daily average turnover value amounted to LKR 929.80mn up 118.90% from last week’s value of LKR 424.77mn. Market Capitalization increased by LKR 29.31bn (or 1.36%) to LKR 2183.25bn from last week’s value of LKR 2153.94bn. The Banking and Finance sector was the highest contributor to the week’s total turnover value - aided by Commercial Bank - accounting to 61.79% (or LKR 2.30bn). The Diversified sector - helped by JKH - contributed 19.81% (or LKR 736.74mn) to the total turnover value. The third highest contributor was the Health Care sector, recording a turnover value of LKR 175.43mn (or 4.72%) of the week’s total total turnover value.

The Banking and Finance Sector dominated in terms of share volume too by accounting for 60.52mn shares (or 42.67%) of the total trades for the week. The Health Care sector and the Diversified sector were the second and the third largest contributors in terms of volume with the Health Care sector accounting for 19.24mn shares (or 13.57%) and the Diversified sector exchanging 15.78mn shares (or 11.13%) of the week’s turnover volume.

Infrastructure Development was the highest price gainer for the week with a W-o-W gain of 27.86% closing at LKR 179.00 compared to last week’s close of LKR 140.00. SMB Leasing [NV] gained 25.00% (W-o-W) to close the week at LKR 0.50 while Arpico Finance Company closed the week at 83.50 up 20.14% (W-o-W) from the previous week. Ceylon Printers was the top price loser for the week, declining 9.89% (W-o-W) to close the week at LKR 1820.20 compared to last week’s close of LKR 2020.20. Colombo Fort Investments dropped 9.40% (W-o-W) to close at LKR 105.00 while Colonial Motors closed the week at LKR 145.00 to represent a 9.38% W-o-W decline. Kalamazoo and Bimputh Finance too were also among the price losers declining 8.84% and 8.38%, respectively.

Foreign investors recorded a net buying position of LKR 0.40bn relative to LKR 0.74bn recorded last week (45.85% W-o-W decline), as average daily net inflows declined 59.39% (W-o-W) to LKR 0.10bn from LKR 0.25bn recorded last week. Daily average foreign inflows amounted to LKR 0.62bn relative to LKR 0.27bn recorded last week (127.71% W-o-W increase), while daily average foreign sales amounted to LKR 0.52bn, relative to LKR 0.02bn last week. In terms of volume, JKH and Textured Jersey led foreign purchases, while HNB and Softlogic Holdings led foreign sales. In terms of value meanwhile, JKH and Nestle led foreign purchases, while foreign sales were led by HNB and Commercial Bank.

Point of View

The bourse ushered in the year with positive investor sentiment leading to W-o-W gains in indices, backed by a notable rebound in volumes. The main share index crossed 5700 points for the first time in 12 weeks to record a W-o-W gain of 140.58 points.

Turnover levels too improved significantly over the four-day trading week as large block trades in Commercial Bank and JKH helped sustain volumes.

Daily average turnover was consequently higher, hitting LKR 0.9bn relative to LKR 0.4bn last week. Foreign investor activity continued to make positive strides as mid-week outflows were offset by positive inflows of LKR 0.52bn over the remainder of the week. Similar sentiment is likely to prevail in the week ahead.

Meanwhile, the Central Bank unveiled its medium-term monetary policy targets highlighting its priority to maintain inflation (particularly core) at the mid-single digits. The Bank added that while it sees annual average inflation hitting 7.4% Y-o-Y in 2012, its expectations for sustained declines in inflation coupled with continued fiscal consolidation should imply lower rates. Consequently, the CB plans to continue systemically allocating EPF funds to the stock market, private equities and corporate debt.

The bank also highlighted its commitment to encourage equity and corporate debt markets to provide non-inflationary sources of funding to the economy.

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