MARKETS

John Keells Tea Market Report:

Record tea crop in March

Brighter Nuwara Eliya BOP/BOPFs although lower to previous week is well above

an average Western BOP/BOPFs selling above Rs 400. The plainer Nuwara Eliya's however were of a much weaker market.

The Sri Lanka tea crop for March at 33.3 Mkgs. is the highest on record surpassing the previous best of 32.4 Mkgs. in 2008. High and Medium elevations have recorded increases of 80 percent and 72 percent respectively compared to the corresponding months of 2010 with Low Growns recording a 50 percent increase. The phenomenal crop increases in March has helped, recoup the crop deficit of 9.3 Mkgs, as at end February in addition to registering a 2.9 Mkgs. surplus to end March. The main contributory factor for the High crop intakes from the High and Medium elevations in March was on account of useful and frequent rains experienced in the first quarter of the year which is a period normally associated with dry weather. With such high crops presently being experienced it is unlikely that we would see a rush in the months of April, May.

In view of high crops in March the weekly auction quantities in April continued to rise with the Ex Estate sale of May 11, exceeding the 1.8 Mkgs. The large crops coupled with a drop in product quality have taken a toll on prices at last week's Ex Estate sale comprising of 1.6 Mkgs. Both Western High Grown BOP/BOPFs met with lower demand with prices declining Rs 20 to 30 on average. Brighter Nuwara Eliya BOP/BOPFs although lower to previous week is well above an average Western BOP/BOPFs selling above Rs 400. The plainer Nuwara Eliya's however were of a much weaker market. Uva's too were much lower declining Rs 20 to Rs 30 with a fair weight remaining unsold. Best CTC PF1s were firm to a little irregular, whilst others tended lower. High and Medium types too were Rs 15 to Rs 20 easier.

A large volume of 3.8 Mkgs. of Low Growns came under the hammer last week was the largest quantity on offer for 2011. There was widespread demand, however at lower levels. Hence prices declined Rs 5 to Rs 10 particularly for Pekoes and OPAs. Most BOP1s too declined at times fairly sharply. In the Small Leaf category the BOP SP continued to sell well, however the Below Best FBOPs and FBOPF1s and most Tippy varieties declined in value.

There was excellent demand from Russia, whilst Iran, Iraq, Libya, Syria and Saudi Arabia lent useful support.

Western Teas

Select Best BOPs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30, other good invoices shed Rs 10 to Rs 15, Below Best sorts eased Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more at times, plainer varieties shed Rs 10 to Rs 15 on average. Select Best BOPFs shed Rs 15 to Rs 20 on average, other good invoices declined Rs 10 to Rs 15 and more, Below Best sorts shed Rs 15 to Rs 20 and more as the sale progressed, plainer varieties eased Rs 15 to Rs 20 on average. Medium BOP/BOPFs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30 on average.

Nuwara Eliya Teas

Brighter BOPs declined Rs 20 to Rs 30, others were substantially lower. A few bright BOPFs sold well on special inquiry, most others declined substantially.

Uva Teas

BOPs declined Rs 15 to Rs 20 and more at times. BOPFs shed Rs 20 to Rs 30 on average. Udapussellawa BOPs eased Rs 20 to Rs 30 and more for the poor leaf sorts. BOPFs shed Rs 30 to Rs 40 on average.

CTC Teas

Select Best Low Grown PF1s were firm to marginally easier, others declined Rs 20. BP1s shed Rs 20 on average. High and Medium PF1s declined Rs 20 to Rs 25. BP1s eased Rs 10 to Rs 20 on average.

Low Growns

Fair demand. Select Best OP1s maintained last levels, selected clean invoices appreciated Rs 5 to Rs 10, Below Best and poor sorts were irregularly lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10 Select Best BOP1s shed Rs 20 to Rs 40, Best types were steady, Below Best and poor sorts were lower by Rs.5/- to Rs 10. Select Best OPs gained Rs 5 to Rs 10, however the Best and Below Best types declined Rs 5 to Rs 10 poor sorts declined Rs 10 to Rs 15. Select Best OPAs appreciated Rs 5 to Rs 10, Best types were mainly firm, Below Best and poor sorts were irregularly lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best Pekoes appreciated Rs 10 to Rs 20 however the balance tended lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10. Shotty Pekoe1s eased Rs 10 on average, Best types too were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15, Below Best and poor sorts were irregularly lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best and Best BOP/BOP.SPs maintained last levels, Below Best and poorer sorts eased Rs 5 to Rs 10. A few well made wiry FBOPs advanced Rs 10 to Rs 15 and at times more, however the others remained firm. Best FBOPs gained Rs 5 to Rs 10, Below Best and poorer sorts met with irregular demand and were mostly lower by Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best FF1s maintained last levels, Below Best types eased Rs 5 to Rs 8, poorer sorts declined Rs 5 to Rs 10. Select Best tippy varieties met with good demand and advanced a few rupees above last, Below Best and Best types met with irregular demand, poorer sorts shed Rs 10 to Rs 20.

Off Grades

Select Best liquoring Fngs1s were lower by Rs 10 to Rs 15, while Below Best and poorer sorts depreciated by Rs 20 and more at times. Select Best and Best BMs depreciated Rs 5, while poorer sorts were lower by Rs 10 from last levels.

All BPs depreciated Rs 10 and more at times. All Low Grown Fngs depreciated Rs 10 to Rs 15. Select Best BOP1As along with the Best declined Rs 10 to Rs 15, Below Best too eased by similar margin, poorer sorts too were firm to lower by Rs. 10/- to Rs.20/-

Dust

Select Best Dust1s declined Rs 10 to Rs 15, while the Best Dust1s declined Rs 20 to Rs 30, Below Best types too declined Rs 30 to Rs 35, while the poorer sorts declined further. Clean secondaries shed Rs.25/- to Rs 30, while the balance declined further. Best Low Grown Dust / Dust1s eased Rs 20 to Rs 30, while the balance declined further.

Weak market sentiments

Weak market sentiments were prevalent in the Colombo Stock Exchange during the last week with little buying pressure building on indices. Benchmark ASI dropped notably by 99.85 points WoW (-1.33 percent) to close at 7,356.97 and more sensitive MPI witnessed loss of 124.34 points WoW (-1.79 percent) to end the last week at 6,822.77. Average daily turnover of the last week stood at Rs.1.7 billion (-4.82 percent WoW) Foreign participation was slightly increased to 18.57 percent of the overall market activity and at the end of the week foreign selling outweighed foreign buying by Rs. 721.4 million.

The Colombo Stock Exchange continued its downtrend with the start of the week on Monday for the fifth consecutive day and ended in the negative territory with a massive setback as selling pressure intensified during trading hours. Both ASI and MPI closed at 7,345.48 and 6,855.27 with heavy losses of 111.34 points (-1.49 percent) and 91.84 points (-1.32 percent) respectively.

Central Finance Company Plc (Rs.252.7 million), John Keells Holdings Plc (Rs.106.5 million) and Lankem Development Plc (Rs.65.7 million) made strong contributions to the daily turnover while counters such as Free Lanka Capital Holdings Plc and Pelawatte Sugar Industries Plc were actively traded during the day.

Trades at the Colombo Stock Exchange were passive on Tuesday as both indices varied around the previous day's levels. ASI closed at 7,349.17, up marginally by 3.69 points (+0.05 percent) while MPI lost 18.73 points (-0.27 percent) to close at 6,836.54.

Commercial Bank Plc (Rs.387.5 million) turned out to be the top contributor to the turnover with several off-the-floor deals. In addition noteworthy contributions to the turnover were seen from National Lanka Finance Plc (Rs.94.4 million) and Central Finance Company Plc (Rs.49.9 million). Meanwhile counters such as Free Lanka Capital Holdings Plc, People's Leasing Finance Plc and Union Bank Plc were traded heavily.

On Wednesday the Stock Market bounced back to green though gains were modest to make note of. ASI was up by 14.61 points (+0.20 percent) and closed at 7,363.78 while MPI recorded a loss of 20.17 points (-0.30 percent) to close at 6,816.37. Lankem Ceylon Plc (Rs. 185.7 million), Brown and Company Plc (Rs.108.5 million) and Colombo Fort Land and Building Company Plc (Rs.72.7 million) were the main contributors to the turnover. These counters were also traded intensely to attract active level of investor participation.

Positive gains in the market were carried forward to Thursday. However the gains were meager to record a significant impact on indices. ASI gained 13.87 points (+0.19 percent) to close the day at 7,377.65 and liquid MPI increased by 19.96 points (+0.29 percent) to close at 6,836.33. Larger contributions were made to daily turnover by stocks such as Commercial Bank Plc (Rs.265.5 million), Colombo Fort Land and Building Plc (Rs. 218.1 million) and Pan Asia Bank (Rs.193.4 million). In addition high investor participation was seen in Free Lanka Capital Holdings Plc, Brown and Company Plc and Lankem Ceylon Plc.

The market wrapped its weekly operations on Friday, demonstrating high level of intra-day volatility. Albeit encouraging gains in the morning session, the market lost its steam in the afternoon to end in the red zone. ASI weakened by 20.68 points (- 0.28 percent) to end trading for the week at 7,356.97 and more sensitive MPI dropped by 13.56 points (-0.20 percent) to close at 6,822.77. Commercial Bank Plc (Rs.704.2 million) sustained its position at top as the top contributor to the turnover followed by Colombo Dockyard Plc (Rs.119.9 million) and Colombo Fort Land and Building Plc (Rs.89.1 million). In the meantime Pan Asia Bank Plc, Tess Agro Plc and Union Bank Plc were aggressively traded during the day.

The information contained in this report, researched and compiled for purposes of information do not purport to be complete description of the subject matter referred to herein. In preparing this report care has been exercised to collect information from sources which we believe to be reliable although we do not guarantee the accuracy and completeness thereof. Lanka Securities (Pvt) Ltd. and/or its affiliates and/or its directors, officers and employees shall not in any way be responsible or liable for loss or damage which any person or party may sustain or incur by relying on the contents of this report and acting directly or indirectly in any manner.

Lanka Securities Research