Belarus vote begins

BELARUS: The former Soviet republic of Belarus began vote Sunday in an election that will almost certainly return Aleksander Lukashenko for a fourth term, backed at the 11th hour by Russia but flirting with the West.

The conduct of the vote, the margin of Lukashenko’s victory, and his handling of opposition protests could decide how far the European Union decides to engage the country of 10 million people on its eastern flank.

Lukashenko, 56, has ruled with an iron fist since 1994, but relations with chief benefactor Russia have frayed and the Kremlin has reined in the energy subsidies that underpin the Belarussian command economy.

Reconciliation last week, however, in the form of an oil and gas pricing deal has extinguished any glimmer of opposition hope that Russia might withhold its endorsement.

The EU, now using more carrot than stick to try to loosen up Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule, is dangling the prospect of financial aid if the vote at least has a veneer of fairness. Brussels will take its cue from 400 monitors from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, fanning out across the snow-bound country and due to report back on Monday.

The opposition says it will call supporters into the freezing October Square after polls close. But political fervour is in short supply on the broad avenues of the capital Minsk, its grey towerblocks shrouded in mist.

Minsk, Sunday, Reuters