Copenhagen Climate Summit:

Hope for a fair deal

Wasantha RAMANAYAKE

It was just last month that Colombo received its highest rainfall in five years. More than seven million people in the dry zone were severely affected by the drought unexpected changes in the monsoon rains. In a recent flash floods in Jeddah some eighty people died; so was the floods in Manila in the end-September and in India in early October where many hundreds lost their lives due to heavy rains...

So are downpours that give days rain in the matter of few hours. Flash floods, more frequent tornadoes and of course droughts in the other end devastating property, killing people, suddenly without any alarm. This is going be the order of the day. If not taken care of the climates across the world would get out of control by the end of the century, so the scientists warn.

Threatened

The island nations such as the Maldives, Tuvalu would go under water by the end of the century, and countries in Asia and Africa that are threatened by dry weather would face the desertification. "World must agree limit the temperature rise to just 2 Celsius by the end of this century," says Climate Secretariat Director and one of the Sri Lankan delegates to Copenhagen summit Dr. W.L. Sumathipala. But it is still not clear whether the world would agree to a fair deal to arrest the climate change.He says that to stay well within this limit countries should prepare to make sacrifices; the developed countries legally bound by the Kyoto Protocol should cut their GHG gas emission. According to the latest IPCC reports these countries need to reduce their CO2 emissions at least by 49% of what they emitted in 1990, by 2020. "But many developed countries have failed to table their emission cuts for the second commitment period starting from 2013 under the Kyoto Protocol," he revealed.

"You can't just stop there," he added that these countries should further reduce their emissions at least by 80% of the 1990 levels by year 2050, in order to avert major tipping points such dry back of Amazon rainforests, loss of Arctic ice sheets and instability of Antarctic ice sheets, chaotic changes in the Indian monsoon.

He pointed out that to stabilize the temperature below 2 Celsius degrees, it is imperative to maintain carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere 400 per million particles.

In this context COP 15 or simply the UN climate change summit is an important forum for the world leaders to arrive at some agreement regarding several key issues, including emission cuts.

They have to agree on how much green house gases such as CO2 would be cut by the developed countries who are signatories to the Kyoyto Protocol, after 2013.

Emission

These signatories under the Kyoto Protocol agreed in 1997 to reduce aggregate of 5.2% of CO2 emitted in 1990 level between the 2008 and 2012, although these countries have so far failed to achieve their targets.

Apart from the emission cuts Dr. Sumathipala says that the developing countries are demanding steady flow of reliable sources for funding and technological resources to adapt greener technologies that would limit the carbon dioxide emissions.

He says that the adaption to the changes in the climate to research and to take necessary measures in the adaptation process in vulnerable sectors such as disaster management, health, agriculture, fishing, tourism etc.

He pointed out that there is a need for such a fund managed by the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol so that the problems faced by the developing countries due to the changes in the climate could be addressed effectively.

He says that the developed countries' proposed to manage the funds through the existing institutions such as the World Bank, which is not flexible for the needs of the developing countries who are struggling with the aftermaths of the climate changes. "These institutions are infamous for getting back what they offered by means of various charges," he said. He emphasized that the developing countries need funds from the developing countries additional to the existing development aids and grants by the developing countries. However, On November 30, the UK Guardian reported that the European Commission negotiators have objected to this proposal which would jeopardize any agreement to reach at the Summit in connection with the financing.

The report pointed out that that the climate funds were to come entirely from existing pools of money that would pose a huge problem for international negotiations. The United Nations has estimated that poor countries need as much as $170 billion per year to adapt to climate change which is $50 billion more than developed countries spent on aid last year.

Delegation

Anoja Herath, Assistant Director of the Climate Division, a member of the Sri Lankan delegation charges that the so far the negotiators have not come to an agreement even on the base year and the duration of the second commitment period under the Kyoto protocol. "These are very minor issues and that shows the extent of disagreement between the developing and the developed world."

However there are media reports that indicate strong will of major political powers such as America and China would make a difference.

GHG profile; profile of the culprits

According to the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol has identified following six green house gases for emission reductions which are mainly produced by the human activities.

Carbon dioxide

Methane

Nitrous oxide

Hydro-fluorocarbons

(HFCs)

Per-fluorocarbons

(PFCs)

Sulphur-hexafluoride

(SFs)

CO2 are emitted mainly from fossil fuel burning and deforestation or the clearance forest lands for agriculture and other purposes. The deforestation and forest degradation said to be responsible for around 20% of the global CO2 emissions.

CH4 and N20 are mainly produced by the agricultural activities. IPCCC says that the CH4 is 25 times more effectives than CO2 trapping heating and warming the earth.

HFCs and PFCs are used as replacements for Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) used as a refrigerant. The CFCs are currently being phased out under the Montreal protocol.

Historical Cop 15

The crucial United Nations Climate Change Summit, Copenhagen Climate Summit or the more technically Cop 15 will start with more than 60 heads of states including British Premier Gordon Brown, Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd having confirmed their participation at the Bella Centre in the Scandinavian city of Copenhagen in Denmark on Monday December (7).

It is reported that heads of states of major polluters such as America, China and India have not confirmed their participation. President Mahinda Rajapaksa is also among the invitees to participate at the summit.

Delegation from 192 countries will deliberate to agree on the key issues.

Although many developed countries had openly expressed their reservations on the final solid agreement on the key issues; emission reduction targets for the developed countries, financing the adaption programs to the changes in the climate and new technology transfer, still there is a ray of hope that the political leaders would take bold initiatives; such as the reducing the emissions of green houses gases such as carbon dioxide from the fossil such as petrol, diesel, bunker fuel used by airplanes and ships, and power generation using coal, provide fund sufficiently to address the adaptation issues in the developing countries who are the most vulnerable to the changes in the climate.