Another ‘bailout plan’

Karu PARANAWITHANA

For realists who like to subscribe to Clautzwitzian theories, war is also a way of doing politics.

Sri Lanka’s Tamil national struggle is facing a ‘Post-LTTE-Situation’. When I used the last three words of the above sentence at a roundtable discussion where a few members of the Colombo-based ‘Peace Lobby’ were present, I immediately earned their intellectual wrath.

With considerable reputation as ‘political analysts’ they started laughing mockingly at me and said ‘Wishful thinking, wishful thinking!’ They did not give me a chance to explain my point until I demanded a point of order of silence.

This happened a few months back. Now we hardly observe political analysts of any sort who argue that LTTE is an undefeatable entity.

CREDIBLE COLLAPSE

Every credible assessment indicates that the LTTE is now at the brink of collapse. Above all, the leaders of the LTTE themselves appear to be aware that they are facing their Waterloo. Perhaps this is why they are testing a different kind of water in another land. Tamil Nadu.

They have been smart enough to bring the Sri Lankan ‘Tamil issue’ on to the Chennai political street once again. What would and should India do at this time? Analysts are requested to be objective as far as possible and leave out wishful thinking.

As the countdown for the Lok Sabha election has begun we can expect many changes in the Indian political landscape. Almost all the stakeholders are trying to bring new issues and trying to prioritize them in order to appease the particular constituency.

Chief Minister Karunanidhi is no exception. He has found an issue, which he thinks he could flag over the other grave political issues in Tamil Nadu such as inflation, cost of living and allegations of corruption.

Trading ethnic nationalism to gain votes is not a new propaganda method in this part of the world after all, and all factions of Dravida Kasagam are notorious for deploying this election time.

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS

However this time it appears that such machinations could create not only a domestic crisis in India but an international crisis as well. Put it in a simpler way what Chief Minister Karunanidhi and his leftist and nationalistic allies are doing is making a ‘bailout plan’ for the LTTE. It demands that the Indian government should employ force to stop the Sri Lankan army, which is now penetrating deep into LTTE controlled areas of the northern districts.

Every war generates a humanitarian crisis because war is always anti human. For realists who like to subscribe to Clautzwitzian theories, war is also a way of doing politics. Traditional realism does not advocate an avoidance of civil wars that are fought within States. Civil war occurs because of the collapse of good politics.

The civil war in Sri Lanka is a clear example of political collapse. Both Sinhala and Tamil polities lost their ‘good politics’ decades ago and hence we have the present war.

However, after 1987 with the India-mediated peace proves, mainstream Sinhala political forces were compelled to rediscover the political path that had been negated. The Tamil political forces, on the other hand, were prevented from doing so.

The question is who or what is blocking the Tamil polity from the same and necessary exploration? The answer is simple: It is the Wanni LTTE led by Prabhakaran who claims that his fascist outfit is the sole representative of Tamil people. It has rejected every worthwhile proposals of power devolution including the Provincial Council system, proposed by the India.

Chief Minister Karuna-nidhi’s ‘bailout plan’ is a veritable lexicon of this abused terminology; he speaks of ‘Genocide against Tamils!’ pleading that there is a ‘Grave Humanitarian Crisis’ and so on. And based on this ‘compelling’ politics of terminology, what does the erstwhile Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu demanding? A unilateral humanitarian intervention! Tamil Nadu is trying to equate the politico-military crisis of the LTTE with the existential crisis of Sri Lankan Tamils.

This is a clear conceptual trap. Even the United Nations was trapped by this concept-manipulation strategy around the time Mr. Gareth Evens articulated his ‘Responsibility to Protect (R2P)’ concept in the Sri Lankan context. At that time what was sought was a multilateral humanitarian intervention such as bringing a UN Peace Keeping Force to the island.

There is a humanitarian crisis since there is a war. However it needs only a proportionate response. Sri Lanka has respectfully received this response from the international community including India.

Chief Minister Karunanidhi’s ‘bailout plan’ is not aimed towards this kind of response. It demands a clear foreign policy shift. Official India now has a matured foreign policy with regard to the Sri Lankan conflict.

That two fold policy simultaneously upholds and gives moral support for a political solution for this conflict-ridden country while maintaining its strict stand against terrorism in the region. Chief Minister Karunanidhi is demanding that the Political India should change this policy at the cost of losing a traditional neighbour.

REGIME CHANGE?

Even if the Political India wants to do that shift and intervene Sri Lanka what are the options available? Sending troops? Lift the ban on LTTE? Instigate a regime change? Every options of this nature appear outdated. Above all the Official India knows that the humanitarian interventions of the Cold War era are not suitable for her contemporary national interests.

India can and should do two things. Official India has to continue its present policy. Political India can support the anti fascist and anti autocratic forces within the Sri Lankan Tamil national struggle if it wants to manage the ethno nationalistic tension in Tamil Nadu.

Both Official and Political India have to consider that Chief Minister Karunanidhi’s ‘bailout plan’ has emerged with the count down for the Parliamentary election of 2008. On the contrary, the Sri Lankan crisis occurred long ago, even before 1948.

Courtesy: Spectrum