Prabhakaran left with no room to manoeuvre - analysts
The reclusive leader of Sri Lanka’s Tamil Tigers is to deliver his
annual address this week from a besieged jungle hideout that could soon
be totally overrun by Government troops.
With his northern fiefdom shrinking fast in the face of a massive
onslaught, Velupillai Prabhakaran is expected to use Thursday’s address
to rally his forces for a do-or-die battle for survival.
The last 18 months have been disastrous for the Liberation Tigers of
Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
The Tigers were ejected from the East in July 2007 and lost their
political chief in a Government air raid, while much of their flotilla
of ships used to smuggle in black market weapons has been reported sunk.
The LTTE’s political capital of Kilinochchi appears to be on the
brink of falling into Government hands. The Tigers have lost control of
the entire northwest coast, while the key northeastern coastal base of
Mullaitivu is also being squeezed.
“He will vow to hit back. He might even say that they are pulling out
so that the army will spread out thinly for him to attack them later,”
said Dharmalingam Sithadthan, a former Tamil
guerrilla-turned-politician.
A year ago Prabhakaran issued a similar threat against the
Government, only to see his northern mini-state shrink even further.
The extremely confident Sri Lankan Government pulled out of a
Norwegian-brokered ceasefire in January. With his troops advancing,
President Mahinda Rajapaksa says he will accept nothing less from the
LTTE than their surrender.
Analysts say Prabhakaran has been left with little room for manoeuvre.
“I think he may still have the capacity to carry out one or two big
attacks, but that won’t be enough to restore the military balance of
power we see now,” Sithadthan said.
Prabhakaran’s speech is an annual event marking “Heroes’ week”, when
the LTTE commemorates the estimated 22,000 Tamils who have died during
the 36-year-long war.
The speech is usually pre-recorded in a jungle bunker somewhere in
the northeast, and broadcast by the Voice of Tigers radio station. The
station’s previous headquarters was flattened by Government jets a year
ago.
The event also coincides with Prabhakaran’s birthday although retired
army brigadier general Vipul Boteju said the rotund LTTE chief will have
little to celebrate.
“He has to make a face-saving speech on Thursday,” Boteju said.
“We will see the usual rhetoric about revenge, but his ability to
deliver seems to be greatly diminished.”
The annual speech is also aimed at the Tamil diaspora in countries
like Canada, Australia and Switzerland, who help keep the LTTE’s coffers
full.
AFP
|
