New dynamics in electoral landscape

Dr. Jayatissa de COSTA

Sri Lankan politics which enjoyed a healthy trend under the first-past-the-post system since independence changed course dramatically since 1978, when a Presidential system of Executive Government was introduced, along with a new Constitution.

Sabaragamuwa Chief Minister Maheepala Herath	NCP Chief Minister Berty Premalal Dissanayaka	Eastern Chief Minister Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan

The period since then has been highlighted by a high degree of political upheaval leading to periodical political violence. Yet, the electoral process has continued with the regular elections.

With the advent of the new system a number of minor political parties came into the fray with a variety of agendas.

The two main parties in Sri Lanka the United National Party and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party changed leaders and embraced new policies and paths at different elections towards the core issues that determined electoral outcomes mainly based on the economy and the ethnic conflict.

These changes mattered very much in determining voting trends and electoral outcomes.

The advent of the preferential voting system which still holds sway too has changed the cause of politics in this country. This has not only contributed to enhance party rivalry but has had a profound impact in introducing a new culture of rivalry between candidates within parties.

This has opened doors for thuggery, intimidation, violence and malpractices which have become part and parcel of modern day elections in Sri Lanka.

The minor parties at times has threatened the dominance of the two major parties. Coalitions have become very frequent at election times but the voters only alternatives to date has been either a UNP-led coalition or a SLFP-led coalition.

The poor showing by political parties such as the JVP and the CWC at the just concluded Provincial Poll is a clear sign that the electorate at large has embraced the two party system once again which it had been accustomed to since Independence.

The late S.W.R.D.Bandaranaike and D.A. Rajapaksa formed the SLFP. which became the second largest party and was eventually able to capture power after the historic victory in 1956.

Following the demise of Bandaranaike there was dissension within SLFP ranks and the UNP was able to seize power in the election of March 1960.

Since then it had been UNP and SLFP led coalitions that ruled the country, but small parties too have been instrumental in deciding the rulers on numerous occasions.

The only exception is when the TULF came to the forefront following the 1977 UNP landslide victory, when the SLFP was reduced to a mere eight seats.

This was mainly due to the TULF’s dominance over the Tamils in those days unlike today where the vote is divided among many parties.

In addition most of these parties are either aligned with the UPFA or the UNP.

It is in this context that the Government should take steps to speedily implement the new electoral reforms proposed by Minister Dinesh Gunawardena now that the two party system is firmly becoming entrenched.

It could also help eliminate questionable characters from entering Parliament in the future.

The proposed reforms will also reduce the huge expenditure incurred on election campaigns under PR while bringing the people closer to their elected representatives.

A special mechanism should be evolved to accommodate minority interests. But as the trend shows minority voters are increasingly gravitating towards the two major parties. This will compel elected Governments to assume direct responsibility over these segments rather than through the representatives of these parties.

Another salient point to emerge at the just concluded PC election is the dominance of the SLFP as a single party.

With all due respect to other minor parties which constitutes the UPFA, the SLFP to my view has garnered the bulk of the vote in recent polls with President Mahinda Rajapaksa at the helm. For years the UNP was considered the largest single political party in Sri Lanka mainly due to the minority support it received.

But with the advent of President Mahinda Rajapaksa as the leader of the SLFP this trend seems to be changing.

This is clearly indicative in recent election results with the UPFA obtaining a clear majority even in areas where there is a sizeable percentage of ethnic minorities.

The decline of the JVP too has had a profound impact on the SLFP vote bank as the disillusioned JVP supporters are most likely to vote for the SLFP rather than the UNP.

The concluded PC election results to my view is reflective of the thinking of the masses in general.

The Eastern polls was a unique one for a variety of reasons. Thus the concluded PC polls for Sabaragamuwa and North Central could be taken as a better barometer to gauge the pulse of the entire country.

The result also could be considered as a direct endorsement by the people for the Government’s present efforts on the economic and war fronts.

The PC poll result clearly shows that an overwhelming majority in the country is behind the Government’s effort to end terrorism and usher in prosperity through their economic development agenda. This result clearly is a mandate for President Mahinda Rajapaksa and his popularity seems to be on the increase despite being in the office for a few years now.

Meanwhile the UNP’s decline in the political front has been gradual over the years but has seen an increase in pace at recent times.

This is mainly due to the fact that they have been unable to evolve over the years to suit the thinking of the general masses.

They have failed to understand modern day demands and the attitude of the leadership has clearly distanced the party from the grassroots level.

If they did not put forward two new and popular candidates in Janaka Perera and Ranjan Ramanayake the fate of the UNP at the just concluded PC polls could have been even worse.

To my view both Perera and Ramanayake attracted the younger and floating vote to some extent due to their personal auras, one as a film idol and the other as a war hero.

It is chiefly due to these two candidates that the UNP at least has been able to keep their nose just above water.

They could no longer claim to be the biggest single party tag in Sri Lanka which has clearly been taken by the SLFP under President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

The vote bank which the UNP boasted to be over 35 per cent has eroded over the years and on closer analysis it could be considered to be below 25 per cent.

Thus if there is a General Election under the first past the post system the SLFP led alliances would no doubt canter home with a 2\3rd majority.

So interesting times are ahead in the arena of Sri Lankan politics with several elections scheduled for 2009 and 2010.

The results of the present Governments efforts to end terrorism and usher in economic prosperity would no doubt have a significant impact on the results of those polls.