The Post-Conflict scenario

Priyath WIJEWARDENA

The war is coming to an end as the army is nearing the LTTE’s main military bases. It may even be that the main LTTE leader maybe captured. Yet like all terrorism the threat cannot be fully destroyed. It can only be contained.

The ugly head of terrorism can appear in a bomb in a bag in a Colombo bus stop or as I predict it would appear relentlessly in guerrilla attacks against army in the North and the East.

The LTTE also has a well organised funding mechanism abroad and though it is prohibited in foreign nations significantly in the West it still may be well operating illegally. To close such operations takes a great deal of time and effort, which may never materialise.

It is also imperative that the North and East receive relief in terms of investment and economic aid since this is the area that is the breeding ground for terrorism. If the relief is to be given to the area there must be democracy, peace and cooperation of the North Eastern population.

The Government has made successful efforts to strengthen its hold in the East and has settled the displaced population. Karuna’s party has taken over the provincial leadership. Yet problems persist.

First, though democracy has been established there are hints of efforts at undermining Karuna’s newly formed party, which would weaken the stability of the democratic system since that needs all players to fully accept the results of the process.

Though military victory in the East has been gained and soon would happen in the North the LTTE still has a significant presence and the probable guerrilla warfare would destroy any chances of serious investments, which would also be effected by the lack of cooperation by LTTE supporters in the North and the East.

The solution would be to have peace talks after the main military bases have been captured. The LTTE would be in a weakened position and would be willing to negotiate to strengthen their location in the Sri Lankan political framework even if the process would be favourable to the Government.

The resulting ceasefire would bring in investment and aid and change the economic and political landscape of the North and the East forcing the LTTE to be more democratic in it operations.

There is no doubt that the Army is militarily winning the war against the LTTE. The beginning of the Eelam war IV was aimed at cutting off enemy supply lines and killing off as many of its cadres as possible.

As the military became successful it sought to confine the LTTE to a highly constricted area by capturing the areas west of the A-9. The objectives were achieved with some military operations such as capture of the Sea Tiger base of Vidattalttivu and the successful repulsion of a counter offensive by the Tigers to retake the base.

The capture of the base was a successful victory because it destroyed a direct smuggling route used to take in weapons and medical supplies from bases in Tamil Nadu across the Gulf of Mannar. The Tiger operations were assisted by the low lying sea levels that made it hard for the navy to patrol the area.

The Tigers have now moved to Nachchikudu, which is another sea base, but is not as efficient as the Vidattalttivu base because of frequent navy patrols. The capture of the base has also stopped the spillage of refugees into India.

The capture of the North Eastern territory and the control of the coastal town of Iluppaikaddavi gave Security Forcers greater depth and protection to the Vidattalttivu base. Meanwhile the 57th Division of the Sri Lankan army advanced towards Thanukkai and Mallavi the second most important administrative bases.

It can be seen that the LTTE has been defeated as a conventional fighting force and is past its prime as a war machine which determines the outcome of the war.

Yet it was the Army Commander himself who said that even with the defeat of the LTTE as a conventional military force the war could continue for another two decades or even indefinitely as low intensity guerrilla warfare.

Some of the LTTE propaganda has stated that they would resort to guerrilla tactics as is happening in the East against Government forces and paramilitary groups. The LTTE also had a well organised network of informants and a host of people depending on the organisation for their survival. I wonder if their presence has been fully relinquished.

The terrorist organisation would also be capable of placing bombs in Colombo. Finally we must acknowledge that the LTTE can quickly regroup if the difficulties the population faces in the North and East are not solved. To stop the problem of a resurgence of terrorism there needs to be more investment and aid, which means democracy and cooperation of the North East people are needed.

The Government has taken some successful efforts in stabilising the area such as the settlement of the displaced population in the East and the staging of elections. It has also taken measures to rehabilitate former paramilitary members into society and is considering introducing them into the Armed Forces.

Yet the LTTE through its network of people and organisations in the area can sabotage the normalisation process. A continuous guerrilla warfare cannot bring in investment. Finally though Karuna’s party has taken the hold of the Provincial Council there are measures by some factions to undermine it which would be bad for the democratic system there since it requires all the parties concerned to accept the political outcome.

There are two things that the government must do. First it is required that the Government must control its own factions and discipline them to accept the outcome of any political process and not undertake underhand activities.

Finally after the LTTE has been destroyed as a conventional military outfit there should be negotiations to bring them into the political system. The LTTE surely would not want to be just a guerrilla outfit and would desire to sustain its influence among the Tamil population.

The peace talks would have two advantages. First it would stop attacks against Colombo and thus stall any economic degradation. The other advantage is what would happen in the North and the East. Once the peace talks begin the two areas would be ready for investment and aid ceasing to be a breeding ground for terrorism.

The extra economic stimulus would change the social make up of the North and the East stimulating the civil society in the area, while also changing the roles of the people and organisations linked to the terrorist organisations since increased opportunities require adjustment.

The writer is attached to the Politics Department of the Nottingham University, England