Global trends of the next decade
We live in a time when rapid change is the norm. We experience more
technological, cultural and political transformation in a decade now,
than there was change over centuries in the past. Globalization has put
history in a permanent fast forward mode.
We will witness significant changes in the next ten years and I hope
I can identify the five major drivers of global change.
The challenge of climate change — global warming - is going to have
the biggest impact on the planet. It not only threatens the topography
of our planet, but it demands that we systematically alter our
lifestyle.
As we become more and more aware of the dangers of global warming, we
will realize that in order to cope with the challenge, we may have to
reorganize on a global scale.
Perhaps the Federation made famous by Star Trek programs and movies
may yet come to pass, albeit to combat climate change and not some alien
threat. Religious fervour is the next biggest threat to the planet. The
world is already alert to extremism in the Muslim World.
Terrorists acting recklessly in the name of Islam have caused
problems across the planet. Muslim extremism has become an important
item on the global agenda and has consumed the attention and energies of
the United States for the last seven years. But it is important that
focus on Muslims should not blind us to religious extremism that is
steadily on the rise everywhere.
Hindu extremism in India threatens India’s secular character,
undermines its traditions of religious freedom and causes recurring mob
violence. Jewish extremism in Israel results in the expansion of
settlements on Palestinian lands that is one of the major reasons why
peace eludes the region.
Extremist discourses from Christians are on the rise in the US.
Millions are waiting with anticipation for an Armageddon - a global holy
war.
As religious fervour rises, moderate voices are drowned, judicious
policies are discredited and fear and hate shape security policies of
major powers. Talk of global clashes and hundred year wars are becoming
campaign rhetoric. Whether wars break out or not, the discourse of fear
and war destabilizes order and a strong sense of insecurity prevails.
The most visible driver of change will be the energy crisis. The
rising demand for oil and other forms of energy as the global economy
expands will force nations to address the energy issue on a war footing.
Energy hungry giants like China and India need guaranteed and ever
increasing supplies and they will risk upsetting the current global
order to satisfy their needs. For nations seeking alternate sources,
this is an opportunity for unprecedented growth. The US is at a cross
roads.
It remains to be seen if it leads the world in developing alternate
sources or merely helps in depleting existing ones? Energy needs along
with religious fervour will fuel conflicts in the near future. In the
Middle East where they combine, the situation will remain explosive for
most of the next decade.
The Chindia phenomenon - the economic rise of China and India — is
already changing the way the world does business. China is the factory
to the world and India is gradually becoming the world’s software center
and back office. They are both growing at an enormous rate of about 9%
annually and are now the world’s third and fourth biggest economies
after the US and Japan.
They are both nuclear powers and see themselves as great
civilizations that have not received the due respect they deserve on the
global stage.
As their economies grow, their populations become more demanding and
their governments more assertive. These nations have cornered a greater
share in the world’s economy, they will now want a greater say in how it
is run.
They both are heavily invested in the US’ growing national debt and
they also have strong Diasporas in the US. This gives them additional
international leverage. These giants, with populations over a billion
each, will invariable change the way our world looks in ten years.
Finally the key factor that will drive our global future is the
decline of US influence on the global stage. As US becomes less able to
determine international outcomes there will be a leadership vacuum that
neither Chindia nor Europe can fill.
The basic power structures of the world are changing.
The key to stability will be the wisdom with which the US manages
global change. I hope it does so in way that minimizes conflict and
maximizes diplomacy as the musical chairs of global governance plays
out.
The writer is Director of Islamic Studies at the University of
Delaware and a Fellow of the Institute for Social Policy and
Understanding. |