Market turns positive amidst improved retail activity

The market ended higher for the week after experiencing losses for 5 consecutive weeks. The indices ended substantially higher on Friday for the first time in nine days as strong interest on Vallibel led to an uplift in the overall market sentiment.

The ASPI (All Share Price Index) ended at 2460 points, up by 4.6 points or 0.19% while the MPI (Milanka Price Index) gained 7.7 points or 0.26% to close at 2950.4 points for the week.

Out of the weekly market turnover, bulk was contributed by Vallibel, which accounted for almost 20% of the total turnover.

Speculative interest on the counter saw its share price rise by a staggering 65.2% to close at Rs.3.80 on Friday, after having traded within a wide price range of Rs.2.30 & Rs.4.00 per share. The week saw 45 million Vallibel shares changing hands contributing Rs.148.3 million towards the weekly turnover.

The 2nd largest contributor towards market activity was East West with a total contribution of Rs.71million during the 4 days of trading. Counter closed higher on Friday to stand at Rs.15.50 witnessing a noteworthy 17% price gain compared to last week’s closing levels. During the week over 4.64 million shares of East West traded at a highest price of Rs.16.25 and lowest of Rs.13.50.

Renewed interest was seen on the blue chip conglomerate JKH which managed to post Rs.56.7 million towards the weekly activity level. A total of approximately 0.5 million shares switched hands during the week, out of which bulk came on Friday. The counter during the week fluctuated between a price range of Rs.111 and Rs.113 per share, closing unchanged for the week at Rs.112 per share.

Investor interest continued on Aitken Spence which saw 0.1 million of its shares trading, adding up Rs.55.8 million to the week’s turnover level. The share price of the counter remained unchanged throughout week’s trading to close at Rs.550 per share on Friday.

The total market activity stood at Rs.768.5 million during the four day trading week, showing a substantial 48% decline over last week. Friday recorded the highest turnover for the week amounting to Rs.312 million, largely driven by retail trading on Vallibel. Meanwhile the daily average turnover stood at Rs.192.1 million for the week, down 35% compared to last week.

Foreign investors for the week became net sellers with a total net outflow of Rs.13.6 million. Foreign purchases for the week amounted to Rs.94.3 million while foreign sales stood at Rs.107.9 million. However foreign participation for the week stood higher at 13.2% compared to 5.4% posted last week

Vallibel, Sierra Cables, East West and Nawaloka were among the most heavily traded stocks during the week.

Market remained dull during the early part of the week with activity levels picking towards the latter part amidst improved retail participation. All Share Price Index (ASPI) gained 4.6 points during the week while Milanka Price Index (MPI) increased by 7.7 points compared to last week.

In the coming week we expect improved activity levels with speculative trading expected to exist in the market place.

Furthermore the bargain hunters would continue to accumulate selected fundamentally sound counters in the week ahead providing marginal support to the indices.

Trade deficit further widened during the month of April mainly in the back of increased expenditure on imports in the midst of rising food and energy costs.

Total export earnings for the month of April stood at US$ 610 million, witnessing a notable 14.7% growth over the corresponding period last year. Yet again strong agricultural exports, which contributed to 59% of exports growth, grew by a significant 46.5% YoY in April 2008.

Higher export earnings from Tea and minor agricultural products on the back of rising export prices, particularly tea, which recorded the highest recorded price up to then of US$ 4 per Kilogram, were the key drivers of agricultural exports. However industrial exports posted only a modest 6.9% YoY growth in April.

Meanwhile, imports during April 2008 jumped by 37% YoY to US$ 1.27 billion compared to Rs. 926 million last year.

Expenditure on intermediate goods yet again witnessed a sharp 38% YoY increase primarily due to significant price escalation in crude oil and fertilizer. Meanwhile increased expenditure on food items especially rice and sugar caused the expenditure on consumer goods to rise by 32% YoY during April.

Furthermore the investment goods too showed a notable 33.5% growth YoY. Sharp increase in import expenditure against a relatively modest export earnings growth resulted in a widened trade deficit of US$ 659 million for the month of April.

The cumulative exports for Jan-April 2008 totaled US$ 2.49 billion while the cumulative imports stood at US$ 4.53 billion, resulting in an overall trade deficit of US$ 2.04 billion, 92.4% higher than the corresponding period of previous year (Jan-April 2007). Overall balance of payments recorded a surplus of US$ 320 million with the gross official reserves standing at US$ 3.38 billion (3.3 months of imports) by the end of April 2008.

“This information has been compiled from sources that we believe to be reliable but we do not hold ourselves responsible for its completeness or accuracy. No matter published herein create any liability of any kind of HNB Stockbrokers (Private) Limited or its associates.