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The food crisis - a global threat

Just two years short of the turn of the 19th century, a British clergyman and political economist, Thomas Malthus, published an essay on the principles of population that has forever altered the face of economics.


Children in the Third World will be the hardest hit segment Picture by M.I.M. Azhar, Maligaikadu Group Correspondent

Before Malthus, economics was seen as something harmonious, majestic and propellant, but after his controversial ideas were popularised, it was rebranded the "dismal science". And as such, Malthus is to classical economics what Jeremiah is to ancient prophecies - a messenger of doom.

According to Malthus, food production increases incrementally while the population grows exponentially. Inevitability, the population would outstrip food supply, resulting in a crisis where there are many more mouths to feed than the food available. This crisis could be averted by moral restraint.

By this he meant people should put off sex and marriage until relatively late in life, therefore, limiting the birth rate and population growth.

Outside of this, the only resolution to the food crisis would come by way of famine, epidemic and war. In these events, the overflowing masses would die like flies, bringing back the population to a state of balance where there would be sufficient food to feed everyone.

But, the revered economist believed that appetite for the 'flesh' is insatiable and, therefore, had no faith in the capacity of human beings to exercise moral restraint. Thus, the world was condemned to a vicious and endless cycle of famine and diseases; of wars and social unrest; of mass starvation and human catastrophes. Yet Malthus's grim vision of a recurring food crisis has not occurred, at least not on the apocalyptic scale he predicted.

Indeed, history seems to suggest that human ingenuity is far more powerful than appetite for the 'flesh'. The upward thrust of technological progress has defied the downward pull of population growth. Agriculture has undergone a transformation that, has seen productivity soaring, thereby causing the pace of food production to outstrip the rate of population growth.

In addition, the explosion in international trade has led to commodity specialisation and the benefits associated with countries focusing on the production of goods for which they have higher productivity.

Consequently, the combination of technology, better fertility management and international trade have influenced the dynamics of the market-causing food prices to fall in real terms the over the last two centuries. And so, history has conspired to keep the Malthusian horror at bay.

However, the prophecies of the esteemed economist may be held at bay, but they refuse to be buried. Periodically, for one reason or another, the spectre of starvation knocks on the door of humanity and the name Malthus is whispered fearfully across the globe.

The World Bank has reported that since 2000, global food prices have increased by 75 per cent, with the price of wheat rising by 200 per cent and other staples including corn, rice and soya beans rocketing to unprecedented levels. Last month, there were food riots in Haiti and a wave of unrest swept across Bangladesh as thousands of garment workers took to the streets in protest for higher wages in the face of rising food prices.

There is hardly a spot, if any, that has escaped this global onslaught of soaring food prices. The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is confronted with its biggest challenge in decades. Currently, it is active in 78 countries providing food handouts to approximately 73 million people. To cope with rising food prices, the WFP needs at least US$750 million this year in order to continue being effective.

There is no doubt that this is the biggest crisis of the 21st century and invariably, the people that will be most affected are those in developing countries - the poor in Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean. There are several factors that explain the current food crisis.

First, the incredible economic growth experienced by several countries in Asia, China and India being the chief, has created an increase in the demand for food and a shift in the pattern of food consumption. This economic growth has caused income to rise, therefore, people now have more money to spend on food. In addition, the proportion of meat in these people's diet has increased causing more grains to be diverted to feed animals. Cattle require more grain for feed than humans.

Second, with oil being an important input into fertilisers, rising oil prices have pushed up food costs. Over the last five years, the fertiliser price on the international market has risen by 150 per cent. Rising oil prices have also led to higher transportation costs in the food industry, which have been passed on through prices.

Third, the new emphasis on biofuels has resulted in food traditionally grown for human consumption being channelled into the gas tanks of motor vehicles and planes. This, of course, is an effort to combat global warming. However, while the intention is good, experts are now questioning the wisdom of this strategy since it might result in a catastrophe - not from climate change, but from starvation.

In 2006, USA, the world's largest exporter of corn, used approximately a quarter of the crop to produce ethanol. This translates to about 15 per cent of global corn export. There are also significant losses globally in fertile soil because of human excesses. Deforestation, neglect and climate instability are reducing the land available for agriculture.

So once again, starvation knocks and the name Malthus echoes in the halls of power and in the corridors of economics. The last time it knocked was during the 1970s. For a short period, global hysteria followed. Perhaps nobody better captured the mood back then than an overwhelmed expert who declared, "In ten years, men will eat men in Pakistan."

But the world responded decisively with a 'Green Revolution'. Surely, today, no less a response can be given than has been delivered before. It is only ingenuity that can keep Malthus at bay.

The writer is an economics consultant who specialises in market regulations. (Jamaica Gleaner)

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