LTTE decline inevitable - Jane's

LONDON: The LTTE is now at its lowest ebb since the late 1980s, the prestigious Jane's Intelligence Review has said.

Jane's said some recent attacks by the LTTE are unlikely to reverse the perilous position of the LTTE.

Jane's Air superiority was an integral part of the Government`s Eastern victories earlier in the year and will likely play a vital role in the government`s campaign of attrition along the northwestern coast. It said the LTTE's diversionary attacks in the South were neither numerous nor audacious enough to tie down sufficient numbers of Eastern Security Forces to the extent that troops and artillery cannot be diverted to the northern campaign.

This means the Government`s northern campaign will slowly advance, seeking to bleed the LTTE by retaining artillery pressure on the FDLs and capturing portions of uncleared territory where it can, the SLA may look to advance north along the A32 in early to mid 2008.

The denigration of the Sea Tiger fleet precludes all significant ability to dominate the coast or easily transport troops for strategic mobility. The limited aerial capabilities of the Tigers are high profile and may boost morale, but are of little tactical utility, it said.

In addition, the LTTE is currently suffering from recruitment difficulties and international pressure over its diaspora fundraising and overseas weapons procurement networks.

With its maritime supply routes likely to become limited by its loss of land in the northwest, unless a new political or military variable enters the equation, the decline of the LTTE is inevitable, Jane's said.