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End game worries international community

Terrorism: There is increasing concern among the international community about the end game being played out in Sri Lanka. There is also a concern that the military option also known as the Chechniyan solution being pursued by Colombo with determination may emerge successful.

Last year as we flew into Geneva for peace talks a foreigner had commented that in his opinion the LTTE had run out of steam. This was an independent assessment by someone who had significant exposure within the LTTE and Colombo took note of his assessment.

Recently, a Western Ambassador was overheard commenting at a cocktail party "If the LTTE is defeated, who would champion the Tamil cause?" It is alarming that a diplomat of a country that champions war against terrorism should even consider justifying the existence of terrorists.

The statement also goes towards reinforcing the perceptions of a certain constituency that is convinced that the West's war against terrorism is actually an exclusive war against Islam. It is argued by many that Al Qaeda is championing the cause of oppressed Muslims and that their existence is justified to champion their cause and counter Ango-American Imperialism? Visit a radical mosque in London, and you will hear all the counter arguments justifying Islamic terrorism.

The Western view point in relation to Islamic terrorism is only found from North America to Europe and including Israel. Once you move North, East or South of Israel, the sympathies of the overwhelming majority of ordinary people across the nations of Central Asia, Africa, Middle-East, South-Asia and Muslim Far-East, rests with those they regard as the Islamic warriors taking on the Western Imperialism. This is ground reality.

Therefore the Tamil cause or the Islamic cause is not a journey this Ambassador could afford to travel upon. Terrorism cannot be justified by any cause. It should also be noted that the military defeat of the LTTE is being discussed in more than one circle at present. Sections of the Tamil Diaspora are also of a similar view.

Ideally the International community, particularly the United Kingdom, EU and the United States wants a negotiated de-escalation of the Sri Lankan conflict similar to the Northern Ireland de-escalation.

This is a hypocritical stand considering the military assessment of the United States which suggests that the LTTE will never negotiate honestly to achieve an honourable peace acceptable to all the communities in Sri Lanka.

An excerpt from this military assessment which is in its entirety about 2 inches thick has been published in English newspapers recently. The release of this information for publication is surprising considering the contents and confidential nature of the information on Sri Lankan military assets, establishment and capability.

To initiate Northern Irish style de-escalation in Sri Lanka, the international community lacks the politico-military muscle to tame the radical terrorism of the LTTE. Unlike the IRA, whose supply and support network was based mainly in North America, the LTTE has a global support and supply base.

The solution to the Sri Lankan conflict may lay more in the Vietnamese demolition of Cambodia's Pol-Pot, rather than Northern Ireland style "gentlemanly" de-escalation.

There are no gentlemen in the Vanni, for the international community to depend on. Despite this reality, countries such as Britain remain confident. This confidence is derived from the diplomacy of the LTTE in the West, which is attempting to use the West as leverage against the Sri Lankan state, to replace the leverage lost in losing India, after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.

The LTTE is convinced that by riding platform on the Western agenda, it could secure a "Kosovo" in Sri Lanka or something similar to the Palestinian Authority/ISGA as a half way house, to the Promised Land. It's a recipe for major political destabilisation in Sri Lanka.

At present the LTTE is watching Scotland with great interest as it pushes towards independence from Britain. In the 1990s a study conducted by the University of St Andrews suggested that devolution fails to contain separatism, after a certain point of no return is passed in the conflict cycle.

The devolution of power to Scotland and Wales was initiated by the British Government to contain separatist tendencies. In Scotland, it's moving towards failure, confirming the study of St Andrews University.

One reason for the stand of the International community may be as a result of lobbying by anti-LTTE Diaspora Tamils who wish to secure an acceptable settlement now, while the leverage of the LTTE still remains in place. Plans and assessments of the international community in relation to Sri Lanka are not necessarily accurate.

A few years ago, when Colombo was preparing to exercise the military option, the assessment of the International community was that further fighting will not result in any significant changes in the frontlines.

How different things are now. Perhaps the International community had allowed themselves to be influenced by LTTE propaganda that the LTTE had fought the Sri Lankan state to a stalemate and achieved parity status? The LTTE even spoke of achieving military balance of power?

Perhaps the International community places disproportionate weighting on opinions expressed in English newspapers in Colombo and English speaking religious, ethnic and economic (all communities) minority groups, and fails to assess the mood of the bulk of the population, which is rural and non English speaking.

In a country of nearly 20 million population, only the Sunday Observer newspaper has a circulation of over 100,000. During a week day, the combined circulation of all the English language newspapers in Sri Lanka would rarely reach 100,000.

Like in Britain, where New Labour caters for the aspirations of Joe Bloggs, while the upper classes who drive their 4X4 to expensive private schools to drop off their kids, moan and groan about the state of affairs of the nation, in Sri Lanka the Government caters for the rural Joe Bloggs, while the upper classes moan and groan serviced by the English newspapers with a 100,000 circulation.

The odd English article may attempt to reach out and reflect the aspirations of the rural folk, but by and large, they live in a different world and a different economy.

There are remarkable similarities in the critical points of view expressed about the Sri Lankan Government in English newspapers in Colombo, and critical points of view expressed about the Labour Government in the car parks of my two kids' private schools in London.

Both represent minority opinions of the upper strata in the two countries. I experience the same degree of racism in rural Sri Lanka as well as rural England. I experience the same degree of phobia about Mosques in rural Sri Lanka as in rural England.

Colombo Municipal Council limits have a Sinhalese minority (Tamil speakers, Muslim and Tamil are a majority) and some London Boroughs and many cities in the Midlands have an English minority ( Jews, Irish, East Europeans, Africans, Asians are a majority).

Mullahs in some mosques in London and some mosques in Colombo preach as to how superior Muslims and Islam is while increasingly in both countries Muslims are covering themselves up.

During the past two major elections held in Sri Lanka most of the English speaking world in Sri Lanka serviced by English language newspapers confidently predicted a victory for the UNP, a party which particularly caters to the aspirations of minorities, ethnic, religious and economic (all communities). These predictions were all wrong, proving how out of touch the English speaking world in Sri Lanka is, with the non-English speaking world, which outnumbers it almost 180 to 1.

As a part of a larger assessment, Britain depends on think tanks composed of largely anti-LTTE Tamils to form opinion about the Sri Lankan conflict. Although they are anti-LTTE they are predominantly Tamil nationalists. This is a point lost to the British and the International community.

Britain and the International community places disproportionate weighting on these Tamil nationalist groups to form their opinion. Opinions formed on this basis are simply irreconcilable with the aspirations of a bulk of the rural population of Sri Lanka who form a political base in excess of 18 million. The rural population in Sri Lanka accepts that the Tamils have been wronged and wants equality for all, but are opposed to any special status for Tamils.

The same way that Americans would be opposed to ethnic based devolution to Hispanics and Blacks in the United States who have been discriminated far more than the Tamils of Sri Lanka, the same way that the English would be opposed to ethnic based devolution to Asians or Jews who have lived in Britain for over 2000 years and discriminated far more that the Tamils of Sri Lanka, the Sinhalese are opposed to ethnic based devolution in Sri Lanka.

The LTTE exaggerates, to gain "parity" status in the eyes of its supporters and the international community. Tamil nationalists too exaggerate to gain " parity" status to sell their aspirations to the International community, whom they convince and use as leverage over the Sri Lankan state. This same game was played earlier with India being used as leverage.

Britain is reported to have frozen aid to Sri Lanka. The amount is insignificant, but is of significant in propaganda value. For Britain it's a matter of human rights and leverage to attempt to de-escalate the conflict, somewhat symbolically.

For the LTTE, it's a great victory as it's interpreted and presented as LTTE activists in Britain, getting around British MP's and using Britain to beat up/hurt Sri Lanka. It's something for terrorists to rejoice about. Britain is inadvertently encouraging terrorism, something it has been doing for quite awhile.

The influential groups of anti-LTTE Tamil Diaspora too are of the opinion that the end game is being played out, and are heavily lobbying Western governments to secure an honourable peace acceptable to them.

They are concerned that once Colombo bulldozes over the LTTE, the Tamils would have lost everything, including any Tiger leverage they had over Colombo. With the Army already commencing its operations in the Northern theatre, there is great and for the Tamil cause, alarming urgency.

Bulldozing the LTTE would invariably lead to census of the population, which would show the real numbers of Sri Lankan Tamils on the Island, which is now closer to 4% of the population.

This together with the new proposed parliamentary system of governance will significantly reduce Tamil representation in parliament, which is inflated as present since it's based on a 1981 census.

There is every possibility that Tamil political power and parliamentary representation on the island would be more than halved because of demographic changes and population movements to the Western Province and overseas.

In response to alarm and urgency among the members of the Tamil Diaspora and to avoid large scale displacement and bloodshed, the international community is applying severe pressure on both parties to the conflict to force them towards the negotiating table and away from bloody and destructive confrontation.

The pressure on the LTTE is being brought about by severe disruption to their support networks and arrest and prosecution of LTTE leaders' world wide. These are not accidental moves by law enforcement agencies.

The sudden exposure in the BBC of petrol station credit card fraud in the UK by LTTE activists is certainly not the freedom of press in Britain playing its part and setting an example to the world. All these are deliberate, planned and orchestrated actions.

Sri Lankan's were aware of credit card fraud by the LTTE at British petrol stations 10 years ago and brought it repeatedly to the attention of the British authorities and the BBC, but they did little or nothing about it. The establishment in Britain, particularly those in the Foreign and Commonwealth office, viewed the LTTE as freedom fighters, until Osama bin laden changed it all.

However, those in the Home office and the security establishment had an alternative view, but lacked political backing and the resources to act. The writer is aware that for nearly 10 years some elements in the British security establishment have been collecting evidence against some high profile LTTE figures who use to frequent Eelam House in 202 Long Lane, London with a view to prosecute.

Today this same security establishment is concerned that other terrorists would emulate the LTTE light aircraft attacks flying under Sri Lankan radar. The LTTE have emulated it from a student flew such an aircraft across Europe under Russian radar and landed it at the Kremlin a few years ago. Britain officially listed the LTTE as a terrorist organisation, because it had to, but unofficially told the LTTE that they would do nothing as long as they kept a low profile in London.

In this respect one could assess controversially that Osama had a similar or greater impact than Kadirgamar, to turn the tide against the LTTE in the West.

Now, British authorities have found it convenient to make credit card fraud an issue, to make life difficult for the LTTE in order to force them to the negotiating table and compromise.

Britain and the International community realises, that the LTTE's intransigence and continued terrorism will provide the excuse for Colombo to bulldoze the LTTE at any cost and that would result in the bulldozing of the little power leverage available for the Tamil cause with it.

While pressure is applied on the LTTE by arrests and disruption, pressure is brought upon the Sri Lankan state by the use of human rights as a political tool.

This is old hypocrisy Sri Lanka has tasted before. When the Army was closing in on the LTTE in Vadamarachchi, India screamed "human rights", carried out aerial bombardment of Jaffna with sacks of flour to save the "starving" Tamils and intervened to stop the Sri Lankan Army crushing the LTTE.

Later the Indian Army got involved and according to the assessment of the Tamils themselves created a far greater "human rights" catastrophe for the Tamils at the hands of the Indian Army.

It must be noted that the International community was silent on Indian human rights transgressions in Sri Lanka. Human rights is a tool used by the International community, when it suites them. Now as the Army moves in on the LTTE, we have human rights being raised again, not in Colombia, not in Ukraine, not in Georgia, not in Bolivia, not in Iraq, but yes in Sri Lanka so that its citizens can have a second dose of hypocrisy.

The Sri Lankan state considers the disappearance of a single person unacceptable, and disappearances have been falling recently. The Sri Lankan Army Commander is fully aware of the implications of his soldiers violating human rights and its consequences on his ability to execute his operations.

Several years ago, when the Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka was following a course at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, I personally introduced him to an official at Amnesty International and arranged for him to spend time at the Amnesty International Headquarters in London, to be briefed on the human rights expectations of the organisation.

More than any other previous Sri Lankan Army Commander, the present Army commander is conversant with the expectations of international human rights standards and he expects his men to abide by them.

Compared to previous human rights transgressions of previous military campaigns by the Sri Lankan Army, this time around human rights violations are at an all time low mainly because of the extensive training the Army has undergone.

But as Iraq has shown, even the best trained armies with vast resources have been tarnished with human rights abuses. There are more disappearances in Iraq and there are more human rights violations in Iraq on a daily basis than in Sri Lanka.

A Sri Lankan academic in Colombo, who grew up and was educated in Europe, last month commented that the level of intellect of the Sri Lankan officer core was very high. The academic was a part of a training programme for some military officers and the academic was very impressed with their questioning after the lecture, as being of a very high quality.

The academic was so impressed; I was asked if I thought there was a possibility of a military coup.

The problem which is faced at present is not a lack of commitment to human rights by the state, but at a lower level individuals either not assigning adequate weight to the importance of human rights or outright impunity. The Sri Lankan state is committed to address these issues.

"Fair play" is the bedrock of the British establishment. The British always wants to balance things out. So we have cracking down on the LTTE being balanced out, with cracking down on Sri Lanka with human rights and now withholding a small amount of aid. Perhaps those British MP's who shouted in Parliament last week can be kept quiet for a while.

If Britain is trying to balance things out between a sovereign state and a listed terrorist organisation, the ice got even thinner, in respect of Iraq and Afghanistan.

While the International community has every right to take up issues pertaining to human rights in Iraq, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, it must clearly distinguish between human rights and the war against terrorism.

In Iraq, Afghanistan or Sri Lanka, Human rights cannot be made a bargaining tool to compromise the war against terrorism so that a "foreign" solution to the conflict could be parachuted in, as was done once in the past by India. Such strategies are neither durable nor permanent.

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