End game worries international community
Dushy Ranetunge in London
Terrorism: There is increasing concern among the international
community about the end game being played out in Sri Lanka. There is
also a concern that the military option also known as the Chechniyan
solution being pursued by Colombo with determination may emerge
successful.
Last year as we flew into Geneva for peace talks a foreigner had
commented that in his opinion the LTTE had run out of steam. This was an
independent assessment by someone who had significant exposure within
the LTTE and Colombo took note of his assessment.
Recently, a Western Ambassador was overheard commenting at a cocktail
party "If the LTTE is defeated, who would champion the Tamil cause?" It
is alarming that a diplomat of a country that champions war against
terrorism should even consider justifying the existence of terrorists.
The statement also goes towards reinforcing the perceptions of a
certain constituency that is convinced that the West's war against
terrorism is actually an exclusive war against Islam. It is argued by
many that Al Qaeda is championing the cause of oppressed Muslims and
that their existence is justified to champion their cause and counter
Ango-American Imperialism? Visit a radical mosque in London, and you
will hear all the counter arguments justifying Islamic terrorism.
The Western view point in relation to Islamic terrorism is only found
from North America to Europe and including Israel. Once you move North,
East or South of Israel, the sympathies of the overwhelming majority of
ordinary people across the nations of Central Asia, Africa, Middle-East,
South-Asia and Muslim Far-East, rests with those they regard as the
Islamic warriors taking on the Western Imperialism. This is ground
reality.
Therefore the Tamil cause or the Islamic cause is not a journey this
Ambassador could afford to travel upon. Terrorism cannot be justified by
any cause. It should also be noted that the military defeat of the LTTE
is being discussed in more than one circle at present. Sections of the
Tamil Diaspora are also of a similar view.
Ideally the International community, particularly the United Kingdom,
EU and the United States wants a negotiated de-escalation of the Sri
Lankan conflict similar to the Northern Ireland de-escalation.
This is a hypocritical stand considering the military assessment of
the United States which suggests that the LTTE will never negotiate
honestly to achieve an honourable peace acceptable to all the
communities in Sri Lanka.
An excerpt from this military assessment which is in its entirety
about 2 inches thick has been published in English newspapers recently.
The release of this information for publication is surprising
considering the contents and confidential nature of the information on
Sri Lankan military assets, establishment and capability.
To initiate Northern Irish style de-escalation in Sri Lanka, the
international community lacks the politico-military muscle to tame the
radical terrorism of the LTTE. Unlike the IRA, whose supply and support
network was based mainly in North America, the LTTE has a global support
and supply base.
The solution to the Sri Lankan conflict may lay more in the
Vietnamese demolition of Cambodia's Pol-Pot, rather than Northern
Ireland style "gentlemanly" de-escalation.
There are no gentlemen in the Vanni, for the international community
to depend on. Despite this reality, countries such as Britain remain
confident. This confidence is derived from the diplomacy of the LTTE in
the West, which is attempting to use the West as leverage against the
Sri Lankan state, to replace the leverage lost in losing India, after
the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi.
The LTTE is convinced that by riding platform on the Western agenda,
it could secure a "Kosovo" in Sri Lanka or something similar to the
Palestinian Authority/ISGA as a half way house, to the Promised Land.
It's a recipe for major political destabilisation in Sri Lanka.
At present the LTTE is watching Scotland with great interest as it
pushes towards independence from Britain. In the 1990s a study conducted
by the University of St Andrews suggested that devolution fails to
contain separatism, after a certain point of no return is passed in the
conflict cycle.
The devolution of power to Scotland and Wales was initiated by the
British Government to contain separatist tendencies. In Scotland, it's
moving towards failure, confirming the study of St Andrews University.
One reason for the stand of the International community may be as a
result of lobbying by anti-LTTE Diaspora Tamils who wish to secure an
acceptable settlement now, while the leverage of the LTTE still remains
in place. Plans and assessments of the international community in
relation to Sri Lanka are not necessarily accurate.
A few years ago, when Colombo was preparing to exercise the military
option, the assessment of the International community was that further
fighting will not result in any significant changes in the frontlines.
How different things are now. Perhaps the International community had
allowed themselves to be influenced by LTTE propaganda that the LTTE had
fought the Sri Lankan state to a stalemate and achieved parity status?
The LTTE even spoke of achieving military balance of power?
Perhaps the International community places disproportionate weighting
on opinions expressed in English newspapers in Colombo and English
speaking religious, ethnic and economic (all communities) minority
groups, and fails to assess the mood of the bulk of the population,
which is rural and non English speaking.
In a country of nearly 20 million population, only the Sunday
Observer newspaper has a circulation of over 100,000. During a week day,
the combined circulation of all the English language newspapers in Sri
Lanka would rarely reach 100,000.
Like in Britain, where New Labour caters for the aspirations of Joe
Bloggs, while the upper classes who drive their 4X4 to expensive private
schools to drop off their kids, moan and groan about the state of
affairs of the nation, in Sri Lanka the Government caters for the rural
Joe Bloggs, while the upper classes moan and groan serviced by the
English newspapers with a 100,000 circulation.
The odd English article may attempt to reach out and reflect the
aspirations of the rural folk, but by and large, they live in a
different world and a different economy.
There are remarkable similarities in the critical points of view
expressed about the Sri Lankan Government in English newspapers in
Colombo, and critical points of view expressed about the Labour
Government in the car parks of my two kids' private schools in London.
Both represent minority opinions of the upper strata in the two
countries. I experience the same degree of racism in rural Sri Lanka as
well as rural England. I experience the same degree of phobia about
Mosques in rural Sri Lanka as in rural England.
Colombo Municipal Council limits have a Sinhalese minority (Tamil
speakers, Muslim and Tamil are a majority) and some London Boroughs and
many cities in the Midlands have an English minority ( Jews, Irish, East
Europeans, Africans, Asians are a majority).
Mullahs in some mosques in London and some mosques in Colombo preach
as to how superior Muslims and Islam is while increasingly in both
countries Muslims are covering themselves up.
During the past two major elections held in Sri Lanka most of the
English speaking world in Sri Lanka serviced by English language
newspapers confidently predicted a victory for the UNP, a party which
particularly caters to the aspirations of minorities, ethnic, religious
and economic (all communities). These predictions were all wrong,
proving how out of touch the English speaking world in Sri Lanka is,
with the non-English speaking world, which outnumbers it almost 180 to
1.
As a part of a larger assessment, Britain depends on think tanks
composed of largely anti-LTTE Tamils to form opinion about the Sri
Lankan conflict. Although they are anti-LTTE they are predominantly
Tamil nationalists. This is a point lost to the British and the
International community.
Britain and the International community places disproportionate
weighting on these Tamil nationalist groups to form their opinion.
Opinions formed on this basis are simply irreconcilable with the
aspirations of a bulk of the rural population of Sri Lanka who form a
political base in excess of 18 million. The rural population in Sri
Lanka accepts that the Tamils have been wronged and wants equality for
all, but are opposed to any special status for Tamils.
The same way that Americans would be opposed to ethnic based
devolution to Hispanics and Blacks in the United States who have been
discriminated far more than the Tamils of Sri Lanka, the same way that
the English would be opposed to ethnic based devolution to Asians or
Jews who have lived in Britain for over 2000 years and discriminated far
more that the Tamils of Sri Lanka, the Sinhalese are opposed to ethnic
based devolution in Sri Lanka.
The LTTE exaggerates, to gain "parity" status in the eyes of its
supporters and the international community. Tamil nationalists too
exaggerate to gain " parity" status to sell their aspirations to the
International community, whom they convince and use as leverage over the
Sri Lankan state. This same game was played earlier with India being
used as leverage.
Britain is reported to have frozen aid to Sri Lanka. The amount is
insignificant, but is of significant in propaganda value. For Britain
it's a matter of human rights and leverage to attempt to de-escalate the
conflict, somewhat symbolically.
For the LTTE, it's a great victory as it's interpreted and presented
as LTTE activists in Britain, getting around British MP's and using
Britain to beat up/hurt Sri Lanka. It's something for terrorists to
rejoice about. Britain is inadvertently encouraging terrorism, something
it has been doing for quite awhile.
The influential groups of anti-LTTE Tamil Diaspora too are of the
opinion that the end game is being played out, and are heavily lobbying
Western governments to secure an honourable peace acceptable to them.
They are concerned that once Colombo bulldozes over the LTTE, the
Tamils would have lost everything, including any Tiger leverage they had
over Colombo. With the Army already commencing its operations in the
Northern theatre, there is great and for the Tamil cause, alarming
urgency.
Bulldozing the LTTE would invariably lead to census of the
population, which would show the real numbers of Sri Lankan Tamils on
the Island, which is now closer to 4% of the population.
This together with the new proposed parliamentary system of
governance will significantly reduce Tamil representation in parliament,
which is inflated as present since it's based on a 1981 census.
There is every possibility that Tamil political power and
parliamentary representation on the island would be more than halved
because of demographic changes and population movements to the Western
Province and overseas.
In response to alarm and urgency among the members of the Tamil
Diaspora and to avoid large scale displacement and bloodshed, the
international community is applying severe pressure on both parties to
the conflict to force them towards the negotiating table and away from
bloody and destructive confrontation.
The pressure on the LTTE is being brought about by severe disruption
to their support networks and arrest and prosecution of LTTE leaders'
world wide. These are not accidental moves by law enforcement agencies.
The sudden exposure in the BBC of petrol station credit card fraud in
the UK by LTTE activists is certainly not the freedom of press in
Britain playing its part and setting an example to the world. All these
are deliberate, planned and orchestrated actions.
Sri Lankan's were aware of credit card fraud by the LTTE at British
petrol stations 10 years ago and brought it repeatedly to the attention
of the British authorities and the BBC, but they did little or nothing
about it. The establishment in Britain, particularly those in the
Foreign and Commonwealth office, viewed the LTTE as freedom fighters,
until Osama bin laden changed it all.
However, those in the Home office and the security establishment had
an alternative view, but lacked political backing and the resources to
act. The writer is aware that for nearly 10 years some elements in the
British security establishment have been collecting evidence against
some high profile LTTE figures who use to frequent Eelam House in 202
Long Lane, London with a view to prosecute.
Today this same security establishment is concerned that other
terrorists would emulate the LTTE light aircraft attacks flying under
Sri Lankan radar. The LTTE have emulated it from a student flew such an
aircraft across Europe under Russian radar and landed it at the Kremlin
a few years ago. Britain officially listed the LTTE as a terrorist
organisation, because it had to, but unofficially told the LTTE that
they would do nothing as long as they kept a low profile in London.
In this respect one could assess controversially that Osama had a
similar or greater impact than Kadirgamar, to turn the tide against the
LTTE in the West.
Now, British authorities have found it convenient to make credit card
fraud an issue, to make life difficult for the LTTE in order to force
them to the negotiating table and compromise.
Britain and the International community realises, that the LTTE's
intransigence and continued terrorism will provide the excuse for
Colombo to bulldoze the LTTE at any cost and that would result in the
bulldozing of the little power leverage available for the Tamil cause
with it.
While pressure is applied on the LTTE by arrests and disruption,
pressure is brought upon the Sri Lankan state by the use of human rights
as a political tool.
This is old hypocrisy Sri Lanka has tasted before. When the Army was
closing in on the LTTE in Vadamarachchi, India screamed "human rights",
carried out aerial bombardment of Jaffna with sacks of flour to save the
"starving" Tamils and intervened to stop the Sri Lankan Army crushing
the LTTE.
Later the Indian Army got involved and according to the assessment of
the Tamils themselves created a far greater "human rights" catastrophe
for the Tamils at the hands of the Indian Army.
It must be noted that the International community was silent on
Indian human rights transgressions in Sri Lanka. Human rights is a tool
used by the International community, when it suites them. Now as the
Army moves in on the LTTE, we have human rights being raised again, not
in Colombia, not in Ukraine, not in Georgia, not in Bolivia, not in
Iraq, but yes in Sri Lanka so that its citizens can have a second dose
of hypocrisy.
The Sri Lankan state considers the disappearance of a single person
unacceptable, and disappearances have been falling recently. The Sri
Lankan Army Commander is fully aware of the implications of his soldiers
violating human rights and its consequences on his ability to execute
his operations.
Several years ago, when the Army Commander General Sarath Fonseka was
following a course at the Royal College of Defence Studies in London, I
personally introduced him to an official at Amnesty International and
arranged for him to spend time at the Amnesty International Headquarters
in London, to be briefed on the human rights expectations of the
organisation.
More than any other previous Sri Lankan Army Commander, the present
Army commander is conversant with the expectations of international
human rights standards and he expects his men to abide by them.
Compared to previous human rights transgressions of previous military
campaigns by the Sri Lankan Army, this time around human rights
violations are at an all time low mainly because of the extensive
training the Army has undergone.
But as Iraq has shown, even the best trained armies with vast
resources have been tarnished with human rights abuses. There are more
disappearances in Iraq and there are more human rights violations in
Iraq on a daily basis than in Sri Lanka.
A Sri Lankan academic in Colombo, who grew up and was educated in
Europe, last month commented that the level of intellect of the Sri
Lankan officer core was very high. The academic was a part of a training
programme for some military officers and the academic was very impressed
with their questioning after the lecture, as being of a very high
quality.
The academic was so impressed; I was asked if I thought there was a
possibility of a military coup.
The problem which is faced at present is not a lack of commitment to
human rights by the state, but at a lower level individuals either not
assigning adequate weight to the importance of human rights or outright
impunity. The Sri Lankan state is committed to address these issues.
"Fair play" is the bedrock of the British establishment. The British
always wants to balance things out. So we have cracking down on the LTTE
being balanced out, with cracking down on Sri Lanka with human rights
and now withholding a small amount of aid. Perhaps those British MP's
who shouted in Parliament last week can be kept quiet for a while.
If Britain is trying to balance things out between a sovereign state
and a listed terrorist organisation, the ice got even thinner, in
respect of Iraq and Afghanistan.
While the International community has every right to take up issues
pertaining to human rights in Iraq, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, it must
clearly distinguish between human rights and the war against terrorism.
In Iraq, Afghanistan or Sri Lanka, Human rights cannot be made a
bargaining tool to compromise the war against terrorism so that a
"foreign" solution to the conflict could be parachuted in, as was done
once in the past by India. Such strategies are neither durable nor
permanent. |