A moment of truth for the sole superpower

RETREAT: How could the world's sole superpower make an honourable retreat from the politico-military quagmire it has created for itself in Iraq? This is the poser which is likely to engage observers on hearing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's pronouncement that the crisis in Iraq is worse than a civil war.

One of the options offering itself at the moment is an international conference on the Iraqi situation, which would in all probability bring together all the foreign stakeholders in the Iraqi crisis. The Maliki administration seems to have endorsed this initiative provided the forum is held in Iraq.

On the face of it, this is an advisable course to adopt on account of the obvious external dimension in the Iraqi turmoil.

Today the conflict in Iraq is simply not that of an overrun people vs armed invader - type confrontation. It does not admit of such simplifications on account of the identity-based nature of the conflagration.

Broadly, the conflict in Iraq at the moment devolves around a struggle for political and military supremacy between the local Sunni and Shiite sects.

Accordingly, highly emotive issues relating to identity and self-determination of cultural and religious groups are at the heart of the conflict.

As should be expected, such groups have extra-territorial linkages and are invariably backed by external actors, including states and ethnic groups enjoying a wide geographical dispersion.

Therefore, a containment of the conflict in Iraq would require the cooperation and positive collaborative efforts of all such stakeholders. Hence the need for an international conference on Iraq.

However, the holding of such a conference would mean the eclipsing of the US and an apparent loss of face on its part because it would expose itself as lacking the influence and power of working out a solution to the Iraqi conundrum on its own.

This dilemma for the US underscores the multipolar nature of the current global power structure. To be sure, the Western military alliance continues to be an essentially US-dominated multinational entity but its power is being increasingly challenged by states and political forces which are identity based.

One such is the resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. As in the case of the religious sects in Iraq, the Taliban too draws its inspiration and strength from its religious and cultural identity. And as in the case of the Sunnis of Iraq, the US would find the Taliban also a hard nut to crack.

For, cultural and religious identities which are seen as under threat by their adherents usually prove a reservoir of resistance for these groups, to external aggression.

So, a most decisive moment could be said to have arrived in Iraq. The US is bound to learn eventually that moulding the world system to suit its vital interests would not prove easy.