Democrats hope to win big in Tuesday's election

UNITED STATES: The Democratic Party, if political forecasts hold, looks set to be the big winner in Tuesday's congressional elections.

Opinion polls predict the Democrats are likely to win back the House of Representatives and possibly even the Senate from President George W. Bush's Republican Party in the November 7 vote.

A Democratic Congress would completely alter the way business is done in Washington and put Bush in a difficult position for his remaining two years in office.

"If you have control of the House of Representatives, you decide what comes up and when, and in what form," said Norm Ornstein, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute.

The House has been a "wholly-owned subsidiary" for the Bush administration until now, but if the Democrats take control the president "won't be able to get ... what he wants when he wants it," he said.

Meanwhile, a Democratic Congress could spell trouble for Bush, with possible congressional investigations and legislative gridlock marking the final two years of his presidency.

The last months of any US president's term in office usually result in a "lame duck" leader who is a less potent presence on the world stage and less able to dictate his political will at home.

In a Newsweek poll last month, more than half of those surveyed - 56 percent - said they believe Bush will not be able to get much done for the rest of his second term.

But Bush could find his presidency further impaired if Democrats win a majority in one or both chambers of Congress and make good on their vow to hold hearings on the conduct of the war in Iraq and other issues.

The party in control of the House of Representatives or the Senate has the authority to hold hearings and investigations and to issue subpoenas compelling witnesses to testify.

The Democrats have said they are eager to investigate the use of flawed intelligence to make the case for the 2003 invasion of Iraq and the slow federal response to the Hurricane Katrina disaster.

If they prevail Tuesday, Democrats will also become empowered to set the legislative agenda, although they would likely have a razor thin majority that may allow Republicans to block some of their efforts.

That could lead to legislative stalemate, which could be exacerbated by the unfamiliarity of both sides with their new roles.

Nevertheless, Democrats say they would quickly introduce long-stalled bills to raise the minimum wage for the first time in a decade, put new homeland security measures in place and control a runaway US budget deficit.

Democratic Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland said in a speech last month at Washington's National Press Club that changes would start "immediately" when the new Congress reconvenes on January 3. "You will have greater accountability," he declared, with greater congressional oversight of the White House.

"You will have a process where committees will actually do their job, bring witnesses before them, and ask them the tough questions in an open setting," Van Hollen said.

"I think that in itself is important to restoring accountability and credibility of the institution."

A shakeup of Congress would see a powerful new cast of characters running its committees and in its most prominent posts.

The 435-seat House of Representatives - the chamber where handicappers predict a likely Democratic majority - is currently led by a staunch Bush ally, conservative House Speaker Dennis Hastert.

But if Democrats win a majority of seats, it likely will be Nancy Pelosi, from the "left coast" city of San Francisco, who will set the agenda in the lower house of Congress. Pelosi, currently House Minority Leader, would likely become Speaker.

All of the House committees and subcommittees would lose their current Republican committee chairs and be replaced by Democrats.

The Energy and Commerce Committee could be led by John Dingell, a New Deal-style liberal who believes in strong government regulation.

Barney Frank, the top Democrat on the Financial Services Committee, likely would be its new chairman. Frank is a liberal activist on social policy issues and one of only a handful of openly gay lawmakers.

The House Government Reform Committee gavel could be wielded by progressive gadfly Henry Waxman and that of the House Judiciary Committee by African-American civil rights activist John Conyers.

The powerful House Ways and Means Committee could be headed by Charles Rangel, an African-American who backs progressive social policies such as rent control and urban renewal projects abhorred by many conservatives.

The changes would be no less profound in the Senate, but Democrats would have to win six seats to reclaim control of that chamber, a number seen as harder to attain.

If they succeed, the new Democratic majority leader would likely be Harry Reid of Nevada, a Mormon lawyer, one-time amateur boxer and sharp Bush critic who is currently minority leader.

Washington, Sunday , AFP