2102 space rock to give Earth its closest shave, say watchers
SPACE: A space rock capable of sub-continent scale devastation
has about a one in 1,000 risk of colliding with Earth early next
century, the highest of any known asteroid, watchers said on Thursday.
The rock, 2004 VD17, is about 500 metres (yards) long and has a mass
of nearly a billion tonnes, which - if it were to impact - would deliver
10,000 megatonnes of energy, equivalent to all the world's nuclear
weapons.
Spotted on November 27 2004, VD 17 was swiftly identified as rock
that potentially crossed Earth's orbit, with a 1 in 3,000 risk of
collision on May 4 2102.
Further observations and calculations have prompted the risk on that
day to be upgraded to "a bit less than 1 in 1,000," said NASA Near-Earth
Object (NEO) expert David Morrison in an emailed circular.
"The risk of an impact within the next century (is) higher than that
of any other known asteroid," he said, stressing however that the
likelihood of a hit was small.
"Fortunately, it is nearly a century before the close pass from VD
17. This should provide ample time to refine the orbit and, most
probably, determine that the asteroid will miss the Earth."
VD 17, which was previously categorised as a grade green ("merits
careful watching") on the Torino scale of NEO hazards, has been upgraded
to grade yellow, "meriting attention."
There are two more grades beyond this, orange ("close encounter") and
red ("collision is certain"), involving objects capable of inflicting
regional or global devastation.
The asteroid's closest proximity to Earth on the 2102 flyby was not
given by Morrison or the hazard list maintained by NASA and the US Jet
Propulsion Laboratory (JPL).
Further observations, however, downgraded Apophis' risk to a one in
5,000 chance of collision, making it a grade green risk.
Apophis, measuring 300 metres (1,000 feet) across and with a mass of
less than 100 million tonnes, will fly by Earth at a distance of 36,350
km (22,600 miles) from the Earth's surface on April 13, 2029, slightly
higher than the altitude of geosynchronous satellites, according to the
website of the International Astronomical Union's Minor Planet Center.
PARIS, Friday AFP
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