Is it the UNP running scared or another jumbo snare?

THE statements of US under secretary Nicholas Burns strongly supportive of the Government, its restraint in the face of grave provocation, the most open condemnation of the LTTE's violence and terror; and reiteration of US support to protect Sri Lanka's sovereignty and territorial integrity were satisfying to many.

Yet it must have been galling to UNP strategists who attempt to show that only the UNP with Ranil Wickremesinghe as leader could count on such support from the United States. This brings into focus the declarations, strategies and intentions of the UNP today.

Tissa Attanayake, the UNP's Assistant Secretary is frequently seen as one testing the waters for the party. He makes statements about party policy and political developments in the country which should come from the party leader, thereby drawing the flak away from the leader.

He is not the fall guy but one who explores areas of contention on which the party leader or its leadership, if there is such in the UNP today, would prefer to remain silent.

One comment he made last week was typical of his service to the party leader, who continues to face challenges within the party despite many efforts to assure the UNP faithful that all differences within the party are history.

There is much effort to show the leader is under no threat from rebels who insist they have a cause. Yet, Tissa Attanayake warned the UNP will withdraw support to the Government if the latter continued to bait its members into crossing over and joining Government ranks in parliament.

He said the UNP regretted the Government offering inducements by way of Cabinet office, or pecuniary and other benefits to draw members of the UNP to its own ranks.

At the first reading it seems a strong indication that the UNP is running scared of rebels leaving its ranks. The threat to the Government against making any moves to draw UNPers to its parliamentary ranks is hardly veiled.

No matter that the UNP has pledged to support the Government in its initiatives to end the ethnic crisis and achieve peace.

One would have thought the solution of the ethnic crisis and the possible restoration of peace would be matters of greater importance to a party as large and important as the UNP, and always beating the peace 'rabana', than the possible crossing over of a few rebel MPs.

Proof of the rebellion

However much the pro-UNP media tries to hide the reality of revolt within the party against its leader, Attanayake's statement gives more than a peep into the reality within the UNP.

It gives credence to stories about groups of UNP MPs meeting the President and other leaders of Government to discuss possibilities of sitting on Government benches.

Attanayake reveals a simmering of feeling against the current leader, and that many MPs would prefer to sit on Government benches that be confined forever to the ranks of the opposition due to the weakness of their leader.

Whatever the spin doctors of Ranil Wickremesinghe may say about the leadership issue being solved, Tissa Attanayake's warning is proof enough that the UNP leadership crisis is far from being resolved. It has in fact come to the point of warning the Government against getting any of its members over to its side.

Does Mr. Attanayake say that the UNP will not support a reasonable solution worked out by the Government in consultation with other parties that comprise the All Party Conference, and which the LTTE may hopefully accept, if any UNPers cross over to Government?

This comes as strange from a party that in the Presidential Election campaign was very keen to woo SLFP members to its side, and even said that if Ranil becomes president he will work together with the SLFP.

If that statement was genuine in the national interest, how come the Government of today working with UNPers, whether they are UNP rebels or those who feel they can work with the Government in the larger national interest, should irk the UNP leadership so much?

It's much more likely the UNP leadership is now running scared of the possibility of many of its members either joining the Government ranks, or an even larger number establishing a political party that is dedicated to UNP policies, but is led by someone seen as a possible winner in the future.

Of perks and portfolios

Stranger still is the UNP complaining today against the Government offering any perks of office or any other benefits to those who may cross over from the UNP.

It has forgotten how it bought about the collapse of the PA government elected in October 2000, by offering portfolios and other perks and opportunities for enrichment to those who crossed over from the PA just one year later.

The post December 2001 Cabinet had several such political long-jumpers, including the UNP's incarcerated National Organising Secretary, S. B. Dissanayake, who did the leap while still being the SLFP's General Secretary.

UNP strategists should think of better ways to keep retain its members than threatening to withdraw support to the Government if any of them see a better political future outside the UNP than within.

It is well understood that a large number of UNP members seeking a change in the party leadership are those totally against committing political suicide by being led by a master of defeat.

Despite the total absence of inner party democracy within the UNP, as it is with the SLFP too, there comes the point of the critical mass in any political party when resentment against the leader boils over into revolt, and not all the threats made to such members or to other political parties against taking them can restrain those who seek genuine change. Mr. Attanayake and the spin doctors he echoes would do well to understand this political reality.

The jumbo snare

All this said, it is also possible that Attanayake's threat to the Government of refusing to support it if UNP MPs are baited into its ranks, could also be a well planned snare of the UNP leader to prepare the way to withhold support from the Government at a crucial stage of political developments.

One cannot forget how the UNP leader who agreed to most of the Draft Constitution of August 2000, after over three months of discussions with President Chandrika Kumaratunga, changed his position at the final stage, when it was presented in parliament.

The excuse he gave was that the Draft Constitution had neither been shown to nor approved by the Maha Sangha. That should give a jolt to those scribes who allege that Mahinda Rajapakse is a Sinhala Buddhist extremist.

There could be no worse example of Sinhala Buddhist extremism than what Ranil Wickremesinghe did in August 2000.

Other than in words there are very few signs that the UNP leadership has changed from that time. It could well be biding its time to pull the carpet from under all the good efforts of President Rajapakse at a crucial time, and Tissa Attanayake's warning could well be a precursor to such tactics.

It is best, therefore, that the All Party Conference meets more often, and is expanded to be more inclusive, to keep the UNP from snaring the Government into belief in its support and withholding it when most needed.