India, wary of LTTE, watches Solheim trip

BY M. R. NARAYAN Swamy

NEW DELHI, Jan 22 (IANS) - India will be watching closely as Norwegian facilitator Erik Solheim visits Sri Lanka on Monday to try to end a wave of killings that have made a mockery of an already tottering peace process.

Feedback from Colombo and Sri Lanka's north and east has convinced New Delhi that renewed fighting between the government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is imminent.

And while the Indian establishment is not happy over "Sinhala belligerence", which it feels is complicating the situation in that country, it is concerned in equal measure over LTTE's bid to fish in troubled waters in Tamil Nadu.

There is also a feeling in some circles here that India needs to give up its reluctance and resolutely condemn the killing spree by the LTTE, which is banned in this country.

The assessment is that while President Mahinda Rajapakse is ready to placate the LTTE, there is now no stopping the Tigers who have unleashed their fury against the Sri Lankan military since Dec 4 while denying any links to the killings.

"It looks like war," an informed source said of Sri Lanka, where Solheim will talk to Rajapakse and - after a long gap - LTTE chief Velupillai Prabhakaran to try to find common ground to restart peace talks that have been stalled since the Tigers walked away from the dialogue in April 2003.

Added the source: "Even if Solheim pulls off a miracle, even if Prabhakaran agrees to end attacks on the army and navy, the peace will be temporary because both sides have drifted too far apart." Another source added: "Any new war may have disastrous consequences for Sri Lanka."

Tamil sources indicate that Prabhakaran, faced with international isolation, might offer a take-it-or-leave-it peace formula.

In any case, a major offensive by the LTTE aimed at seizing Jaffna could take place before elections are held in Tamil Nadu in May.

In recent times, the LTTE has emphasised the influence Tamil Nadu's parties wield in India's ruling coalition which it feels can be utilised to thwart any possible intervention by New Delhi in the event of renewed war in Sri Lanka.

Tamil Nadu politicians successfully stalled a planned trip to the state by Rajapakse when he visited New Delhi in December. Since then, some of them have spoken out against Colombo and in support of the LTTE.

Although dominant public opinion in Tamil Nadu is no more sympathetic to the LTTE, which is outlawed in India on charges of assassinating former Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, Tamil nationalist groups in the state that advocate the Tiger cause are set to meet in Chennai Feb 14.

With Tamils fleeing Sri Lanka again taking refuge in Tamil Nadu, the situation in the state is worrying the Indian security establishment.

Some officials opine it is time New Delhi took a harder line vis-...-vis the LTTE.

"The LTTE must be put on notice for its violence," one official pointed out. "India's approach should be firm and resolute. India must ensure that its Tamil constituency in Sri Lanka remains intact."

Tamil sources say there is disappointment among many Tamils and most Muslims that India is not playing a larger role in Sri Lanka, where a Norway-brokered peace process has been under strain in the past two years, marked by child recruitment, ceasefire violations and killings for most of which the LTTE has been blamed.

India's bid to broker a Sinhala consensus after Rajapakse became president in November was rebuffed by Colombo. New Delhi thinks that there can be no long-term hope for Sri Lanka unless Sinhalese political parties come together with a credible devolution package as part of a federal system.

But the LTTE feels it is on the threshold of setting up an independent Tamil Eelam state and that no foreign power, the US included, can afford to intervene militarily in Sri Lanka.

A Sri Lankan Tamil living in a European city had said after meeting Prabhakaran in 2002 that the man appeared ready to make peace. The same source went to LTTE areas three weeks ago and told a friend in Colombo: "I just cannot believe this. Prabhakaran is all set for war!"

India, aware of the ground realities in Sri Lanka, will observe if Solheim can do a badly needed course correction.

Indo-Asian News Service