To what effect, these warnings & condemnations?

THERE is now an abundance of warnings and condemnations of the escalating violence in the country in general and the continued terrorism of the LTTE in particular. At the rate the LTTE violates the Ceasefire Agreement these will soon come almost daily, with little impact on the LTTE.

The LTTE's attack on the Navy's Fast Attack Craft off Trincomalee came immediately after the Co-Chairs warned it of serious consequences unless they put an end to violence. It was a bloody reminder of the contempt they attach to such warnings.

Earlier this week there was the condemnation of the LTTE's terrorism as well as alleged excesses by the Armed Forces by The Ecumenical Intervention for Peace by Church Leaders, comprising heads of Churches belonging both to the Catholic Bishops' Conference and the National Christian Council of Sri Lanka.

The latest warning, the toughest of its kind so far has come from the United States Ambassador to Sri Lanka Jeffrey Lunstead.

Addressing members of the business community in the American Chamber of Commerce in Colombo, Ambassador Lunstead repeated his call to the LTTE to stop its violence and return to peace talks.

He warned that: "If the LTTE chooses to abandon peace, however, we want it to be very clear they will face a stronger, more capable and more determined Sri Lankan military."

He added that through the military training and assistance programmes, including efforts to help with counter-terrorism initiatives and block illegal financial transactions, the US was hoping to shape the ability of the Sri Lankan Government to protect its people and defend its interests.

Meanwhile, the UK has issued a travel advisory to its citizens warning of possible dangers when travelling to the North and East.

This could be a precursor to similar warning that may follow to citizens of other western countries, posing a major threat to the tourism industry. Welcome as all these warnings and condemnations are, what effect will all these have on the LTTE and how will they help achieve peace in Sri Lanka?

What effect on LTTE strategy?

The US Ambassador's assurance about training provided to the Sri Lankan armed forces may give some satisfaction to those harbouring doubts about the capability or preparedness of the Sri Lankan security forces to face up to the tactics and vast fire power of the LTTE.

But that is small comfort in the current context. The question that always comes up is what effect all these statements of warning issued by the Co-Chairs, the US, Australia and Canada too will have on the LTTE.

Its behaviour since the election of President Mahinda Rajapakse has been one of excessive and extensive provocation of the Sri Lankan security forces, leading to demands from sections of the Sinhalese majority, as well as Muslims, for strong and punitive action against the LTTE.

All those who have issued warnings to the LTTE and condemned its increased violence have commended President Rajapakse for his continued restraint and patience in the context of a situation where other leaders may rush into retaliatory action.

They commend his commitment to a negotiated settlement and the continued commitment to the CFA. But what qualitative difference to the violent situation on the ground do all these commendations bring about? There is apparently none, as seen so far.

That the LTTE is going ahead with a well planned strategy to use the CFA to its own advantage, as it has done from the time former Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe signed it, with all its major flaws that only helps the LTTE strengthen itself.

It is today making no secret of its tactic of using human shields in attacks on the armed forces, and using to best effect its cadres now in government controlled areas in the North thanks to the CFA, particularly the Jaffna peninsula, to ferment violent protests against the armed forces presence there. This is a scenario seen by many analysts when the CFA was signed.

In fact a British journalist who described this strategy in detail was deported from the country by the last government for bringing it to the notice of the Sri Lankan public.

Helpful to the LTTE are the few reported alleged excesses by the armed forces, to use these as excuses for increased protests and violence, aimed at driving the armed forces out of their smaller camps in the Jaffna peninsula and into the confines of High Security Zones or the Palaly Military Base. It is the so-called tit for-tat strategy.

The Christian response

The unqualified condemnation of the LTTE's attack on the naval craft by Church leaders came at an important time.

However, their eagerness to strike a balance in condemnation speaking of tit-for tat attacks, and the many words spent on the killing of five students at Trincomalee by as yet unknown forces showed they were missing the wood for the trees.

The killing of those students by whoever was responsible is most reprehensible, deserving the most serious condemnation.

This is precisely why President Rajapakse wasted little time in appointing a special committee of inquiry into the incident.

As one who campaigned hard against such situations in the South in 1988/89, the President is fully aware of the consequences of such actions if carried out by those in uniform. It is his firm determination to prevent such situations developing again.

To even remotely link the attack on the naval craft as tit-for tat for this tragic incident is to extend understanding of events a little too far.

Similarly, the dastardly killing of Joseph Pararajasingham while at prayer in church on Christmas night. Contemptible as these events are they do not and cannot be made the raison d'etre for the LTTE's escalating violence, and one trusts the Christian leaders are not engaged in such an exercise.

Now that The Ecumenical Intervention for Peace by Church Leaders has considered it necessary to its strong condemnation of the LTTE, also lauding the restraint of the Sri Lankan troops in the face of increased provocation, it would be most useful if such statements of intervention were on the increase.

The Christian churches still have a large part of their flock in the North and East, many of them held in thrall by the LTTE.

As much as the churches have condemned the killing of the students at Trincomalee, their voice will be heard all over the world if they take a more public position against recruitment and use of child soldiers by the LTTE.

There's much more to be done with and among the people to confront the LTTE with the reality that it does not represent the Tamil people and is not their sole representative. The Churches in Sri Lanka have a clear role to play in this beyond the issuance of strong condemnations.

It is the same with the Co-Chairs and others involved in the "peace process". If it is compromise that is needed to resume talks, let the LTTE make one little compromise of stopping their expansionist terror. One cannot have a balance of compromise always being in favour of the LTTE.

Today's ground situation proves that continued appeasing of the LTTE, is never reciprocated by it.

So why keep travelling on the old paths of failure instead of looking at new paths, especially of warnings and condemnations that carry true weight and meaning with them?