One year after tsunami

- progress in disaster awareness and mitigation - part 2

by Ananda Gunatilaka, M.T.M. Jiffry and Samantha Hettiarachchi

(Continued from Dec. 29)

The World Science Day, which falls on the 10th November every year, was highlighted this year by activities that promoted awareness of natural disasters amongst the public as its main theme. A special volume of the Vidurava science magazine devoted to disaster awareness was released on this occasion.

Further, satellite programmes were conducted in four districts, to promote awareness of natural disasters and explain their scientific bases to school children. Scientists within these districts were encouraged to participate in these programmes. School children were requested to stage a drama on a theme related to natural disasters.

A poster competition was organized to facilitate active participation of children of all ages. The best drama and poster from each district were accommodated at World Science Day celebrations held at the BMICH in November. SCOPS of the NSF released a children's story book on tsunami, written by Ms. Sumithra Rahubedda with artistic presentation by Ms. Sybil Wettasinghe.

This publication, which is in all three languages, will be distributed to school libraries and is available for sale at the NSF counter. SCOPS are planning to publish similar books on all disasters. Several video programmes are being produced on disasters, in all three languages, and will be telecast soon.

To facilitate the diffusion of scientific concepts, the NSF has launched a programme to assist science writers to publish quality reading material written in simple language and format. These will supplement the ongoing NSF programmes in promoting scientific literacy with the objective of empowering the public to confidently face up to natural disaster situations.

SCOPS and the SLAAS are also collaborating on a project to produce supplementary reading material on relevant themes. A sub-committee of SCOPS has also prepared resource material for a disaster preparedness training programme. Three training and lesson modules for this project will be finalized by early January 2006.

Building confidence and inculcating the scientific bases behind disasters and facing high risk situations by even the remotest communities in the country, is the ultimate aim of the NSF programme. This cannot be achieved by a single programme or by a single organization or in a short time.

It needs effective partnership amongst all stakeholders responsible for the dissemination of basic information and educating the public to face disaster situations effectively and with confidence. This is a continuing programme, which needs to be executed with efficient planning, monitoring and effective management.

The Early Warning System for Sri Lanka

It is the opinion of most experts that a tsunami of comparable magnitude to the 2004 event has a low probability of occurring in the eastern Indian Ocean in the immediate future. Yet, this is no reason to be complacent.. In the aftermath of the Indian Ocean Tsunami, the need for a reliable tsunami warning system similar to that operating in the Pacific Ocean was identified.

The Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) has been at the forefront of establishing an ocean wide EWS for the region and the basic infrastructure for such a system are already on stream. An effective tsunami warning system must include four key components, namely,

1) detection of hazard

2) assessment of risk

3) dissemination of the warning

4) preparedness by the community to respond as advised in advance

The UNESCO/IOC in collaboration with the Indian Ocean states and other stakeholders convened a conference in Paris in March 2005 to reach agreement on the structure and operation of such a warning system. This meeting was followed by a Ministerial Meeting in Mauritius in April 2005.

It was agreed that the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System (IOTWS) will comprise of a coordinated network of national systems and capacities, and will be part of a global network of early warning systems for all ocean related hazards. Within the IOTWS, each Member State will have the responsibility to issue warnings within their respective territories.

For this purpose the respective Warning Centres of individual nations must be well equipped to receive and analyze information, detect the hazard, assess the risk and issue the warning to the community who have been adequately trained and coached on how best to respond to the specific type of warning issued. The Mauritius Meeting led to the establishment of the Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG), which met for the first time in Perth in August 2005.

The ICG will meet regularly to report, discuss and monitor the initiatives and actions taken by the nations individually and jointly to contribute to the establishment of the IOTWS. The second ICG meeting was held in early December in Hyderabad.

A reliable tsunami warning system requires information arising from three instrumentation networks, namely, an improved seismographic network, a real time sea level observation network covering the Indian Ocean basin and the deployment of advanced deep-sea pressure sensors capable of detecting the tsunami as it travels over the deep ocean.

It also requires the availability of a well equipped warning centre, which is able to detect the hazard, analyze, assess the risk and issue an appropriate warning. The nations must educate its people on disaster preparedness and how to respond to a specific type of warning.

In order to achieve the specified objectives related to the establishment of the IOTWS based on national and international contributions, the ICG agreed on the establishment of working groups covering critical areas of the IOTWS.

The said working groups comprising representatives of the nations and international experts are jointly contributing to the establishment of the IOTWS.

At present there are five working groups namely,

1) Seismic Measurements, Data Collection and Exchange

2) Sea level data collection and exchange, including deep ocean tsunami detection instruments

3) Risk Assessment

4) Tsunami hazard identification and characterization, including modeling and prediction

5) Establishment of a System of Interoperable Centres

During the course of 2005 progress has been made in improving seismographic networks, sea level observation networks and the capabilities of national warning centres.

There have been considerable efforts in identifying and providing access to a wide range of relevant databases and networking. Of significant interest is the fact that India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Australia are planning the deployment of deep sea buoys, which are currently being developed.

The deep sea buoys, which form a key element of the IOTWS will enable the detection of tsunami arising in the Sunda-Java fault zone and provide early warnings to the Indian Ocean states. It is expected that around 10 buoys will be in place by the end of 2006.

The presence of these buoys will be of great advantage to countries like Sri Lanka, which are located at a considerable distance (~1600 km) from the potential tsunamigenic fault line and providing them a warning of the order of 1.0-1.5 hours.

This gives sufficient time for evacuation procedures. Through the respective working groups the nations maintain a working relationship on all issues related to each group. Until the establishment of a fully equipped and staffed Early Warning Centre in Sri Lanka, the Department of Meteorology will act as the focal point in issuing warnings of an impending disaster.

We wish to reiterate the importance of science, technology and education in this endeavour. Disaster risk assessment and analysis requires specialized training and capacity building, which is at a low level in Sri Lanka - a situation that has to be rectified soon.

Much has been achieved in a short time and much more remains to be done. We cannot be satisfied with the pace of decision making with regard to disaster related affairs. At the same time we should spare some thought to all the victims of disasters and help them restart their lives with hope and new expectations.

Disaster awareness, preparedness, mitigation and management programmes should go hand in hand with relief and rehabilitation efforts. The ultimate aim should be inherently secure, socially and economically resilient communities.

Professor Ananda Gunatilaka

Geological Consultant, National Science Foundation of Sri Lanka.

Professor M. T.M. Jiffry

Chairman SCOPS-NSF, University of Sri Jayawardenapura

Professor Samantha Hettiarachchi

Dept. of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa and NSF.

Concluded